Week 9 College Football Best Bets (presented by Circa Sportsbook)
Credit: Aaron Torres
Well everyone, it’s Thursday and you know what that means: It’s time to make some Week 9 college football best bets!
First off, let me be the 10,000th person to ask: How the hell are we at Week 9 of the college football season?! It seems like just yesterday we were talking over LSU-Clemson and what it meant for the national title picture.
Now, well, nine weeks later, umm… maybe the answer isn’t “all that much.” But still, where does the time go!
Regardless, let’s dive into this week’s slate and I’ll be transparent: Outside of some big SEC games on the slate, this week’s game are a little bit lacking. The intention wasn’t to solely preview the SEC, but this is a “best bets” article and that’s where the value lies.
Before we get started, please remember: Make sure you’re subscribed to our College Football Betting Podcast and YouTube page. I really do believe our information is as good as anyone’s and you can find us on Apple, Spotify and YouTube.
Finally, a friendly reminder that all of our odds are provided by our friends at Circa Sportsbook. Circa is the best place to watch gams in Las Vegas, but also back East as well - as they’ve just opened a new sportsbook at Mint Kentucky Downs in Franklin, Kentucky. Be sure to check them out if you haven’t already.
Now, let’s get to our Week 9 picks presented by Circa Sportsbook!
No. 8 Ole Miss at No. 13 Oklahoma (-5): Saturday, 12:00 p.m. ET, ABC
Let’s start with an intriguing, Top 15 matchup in Norman, Oklahoma with major playoff implications. Both Ole Miss and Oklahoma are 6-1 and dreaming about the postseason (well, Lane Kiffin may be dreaming about Gainesville as well. But that’s another conversation for another day). A win here and each has to feel pretty good about their road ahead. A loss, and it gets much murkier.
So yeah, there’s a lot at stake. And it’s why I’m taking the home team here.
First, it’s just a tough spot for Ole Miss. Just a week after an emotional loss at Georgia - in a game where you led by two scores in the fourth quarter, mind you - you now have to go on the road. And to make matters worse, you’re facing the best defense in the SEC.
As a matter of fact, that Oklahoma defense is so good, it might be…. too good according to Lane Kiffin.
Did you hear what he had to say about OU earlier in the week?
Hello! Did Lane Kiffin just accuse Brent Venables of stealing signs?!
In the end, I don’t think Oklahoma’s defense needs to steal signs. They’re just that good.
You know what else is good?! For the first time all season, the Sooners’ run game as Tory Blalock went for over 100 yards last week. They are going up against the Rebels’ run defense, which is one of the worst in the conference.
Add it up, and it’s a bad matchup for Oklahoma and an even worse spot.
Take the Sooners to win and cover.
Auburn at Arkansas (+1.5): Saturday, 1:45 p.m. ET, SEC Network
First off, shout out Bobby Petrino, who - at minimum - has turned Arkansas into a cover machine. We took them two weeks ago as a 12-point dog at Tennessee and they lost by a field goal. They lost by a field goal last week as a touchdown underdog against Texas A&M at home.
Well Saturday, guess what: The Hogs are winning outright.
Now I know what everyone will say: “Torres, have you seen Arkansas’ defense? It’s awful.”
Yes. Yes, I have.
Yet you know what’s worse than the Arkansas defense: Auburn’s offense.
Incredibly, the Tigers have yet to break 17 points in four SEC games and the whole program feels like it’s on the verge of collapse. Hugh Freeze is publicly begging his AD for support - support which seemingly isn’t coming. More importantly, how many games can Auburn’s defense keep bailing out that embarrassing offense?
If there’s ever a week the damn breaks, it feels like its against the SEC’s most explosive offense this Saturday.
Put simply, I don’t believe Arkansas’ defense is “bad” as people think, and instead their failures are much more about fundamentals (tackling, being in the right spot). Auburn’s offense on the other hand is as bad as advertised.
Arkansas 28, Auburn 10 as Hugh Freeze’s seat goes from “hot” to “scorching” by mid-day Saturday.
No. 15 Missouri at No. 10 Vanderbilt (UNDER 52.5): Saturday, 3:30 p.m. ET, ESPN
This is another one that has low-key playoff implications, as the winner here will have inside track to a playoff berth as we hit the final third of the season.
And transparently, while I have no idea who’s winning this game (I’d lean Vandy at home) from a betting perspective, I think it’s actually pretty easy to analyze: Take the UNDER of 52.5.
It’s really pretty simple. Both these teams love to run the ball (they rank first and third in the SEC in rushing yards respectively) and both are pretty good at stopping the run, as each ranks in the Top 15 nationally in that category.
I’m not great at math, but when both teams run it a lot and both teams stop the run well it doesn’t lead to a lot of points.
You know what it does lead to though? The clock quickly winding down and not a lot of points.
Well, to quote my old buddy JJ Redick, “it’s a simple math equation f***head” (yes, he once said that in response to one of my tweets).
Like I said, I lean Vandy here. But love the under as a bet.
No. 3 Texas A&M at No. 20 LSU (UNDER 49.5): Saturday, 7:30 p.m. ET, ABC
Alright let’s get to the big one, Saturday night in Baton Rouge and a simple statement: I’m just not sure people realize how toxic things have gotten for Brian Kelly and LSU.
It’s bad. Really bad. Yet the one thing that Brian Kelly can hold onto - maybe the only thing at this point - is that he doesn’t lose night games at Tiger Stadium. He’s 20-1 overall as head coach of at LSU in that enviornment.
Because of that, it’s hard to take Texas A&M here.
At the same time, we’re not really taking LSU to win and cover, are we?!
Instead, let’s stick with the UNDER, as LSU’s defense has mostly been up to the challenge this year and will be for a big game under the lights at the Tiger Stadium. Conversely, the one thing the A&M defense does at an elite level is get after the quarterback - which is bad news for LSU, which has one of the worst o-lines in the SEC.
This one has 20-17 written all over it and an under.
(If you’re asking for a winner I’ll take Texas A&M).
No. 17 Tennessee at Kentucky (OVER 54.5): Saturday, 7:45 p.m. ET, SEC Network
We’ve been doing these previews for close to a decade now, and full transparency: I’m not sure if I’ve ever taken a Kentucky over.
But hey, there’s a first time for everything right!?
Tennessee’s defense simply isn’t good this year (15th in the SEC) and for the first time in a long time neither is Kentucky’s. Yet in a weird twist, Kentucky might actually have themselves a QB in Cutter Boley. For those who grit their teeth through Texas-Kentucky last week, Boley absolutely 100 percent outplayed Arch Manning and on the game Kentucky had 200+ yards of total offense more than Texas did.
So, could I see a scenario where Kentucky puts up 21 points in a 42-21 loss to the Vols? I could.
Take the over.
Last Week: 4-1-1
Overall: 27-25-1