Week 8 College football picks (presented by circa sportsbook)
Credit: Aaron Torres
Well folks, it’s Wednesday and you know what that means: It’s time to make some college football picks, baby!
First off, hope you’re digging the new website layout - big thanks to my friends at Convexity for the new layout.
Two, I’m not gonna lie: It’s about time we went on a damn run this season. Last week we were sitting at 4-1 on the day, only to take two brutal losses along the way (Auburn +3.5 - yeah we know what happened there - as well as Arizona blowing a 10-point fourth quarter lead to lose in overtime).
Those are the breaks, and that’s OK - because this is the week we go 7-0, baby!
As always, the lines for our picks are provided by our friends at Circa Sportsbook. Remember, in addition to their beautiful sportsbook in Las Vegas, they also just opened a brand new spot at Mint Kentucky Downs, in Franklin, Kentucky. If you’re on that Kentucky-Tennessee border (this spot is just 45 minutes from Nashville) you’ve got to go and check it out.
Also remember: If you’re not subscribed to the College Football Betting Podcast, make sure to do so, as I truly do believe we give the best information and deep dives that you can find anywhere on the ‘net. You can find the show on Apple, Spotify and our new YouTube page.
Alright, no more time to waste.
Let’s get to our Week 8 picks, presented by Circa Sportsbook!
No. 10 LSU at No. 17 Vanderbilt (-2.5): Saturday, 12:00 p.m. ET, ABC
Let’s start with a noon ET, 11 a.m. local time kick-off in Nashville and a Top 20 matchup between LSU and Vanderbilt.
And I know what a lot of you thought when you saw this opening point spread: “Wait, Vandy is actually favored? We sure about that?”
Let me give my counter to that which is, like, are we sure LSU is any good?
First off, we know their offense is abysmal, and I’m actually going to take it a step further: As bad as you think LSU’s offense is, it’s actually much, much worse. Incredibly, LSU ranks 86th in the country averaging just 26.8 points per game. But the crazy part is, that number is a bit deceptive, as they put up 56 points against Southeast Louisiana earlier in the year. Take out that game and they’re averaging just 19.8 points per game, which would put them at around 115th nationally, somewhere in the same ballpark as Rice, Stanford and Wyoming.
Woof.
Yet here’s my other question: Are we sure the defense is even that good?
Ok, yes, this defense is good. But I’m sure they’re quite as good as people think, when you consider that some of LSU’s wins have come against - quite literally - some of the worst defenses in college football, with the likes of Florida, Clemson and South Carolina. Against the one real offense they faced (Ole Miss) they gave up nearly 500 yards and would’ve given up well over 30 points if Trinidad Chambliss didn’t fumble on the one-yard line going in for a touchdown.
Put simply, LSU might be one of the most unimpressive 5-1 teams I can remember, and at home, off a bye, Vandy cruises to a comfortable 20-10 iwn here.
No. 14 Oklahoma at South Carolina (UNDER 43): Saturday, 12:45 p.m. ET, SEC Network
This one is pretty simple.
Oklahoma has - in my opinion - the best defense in college football, but one that was also humbled quite a bit last week against Texas. Going up against a South Carolina offense that ranks 123rd nationally in total offense, the Sooners shut the Gamecocks down. Even at home, I think anything more than 10 points from South Carolina is wishful thinking.
At the same time, to their credit South Carolina has actually been pretty respectable on defense themselves this year, and Oklahoma has not been able to run the ball against anyone.
Oklahoma wins this game in my opinion, but it feels like it has 23-3 or 24-7 written all over it and an easy under.
No. 4 Texas A&M at Arkansas (+7.5): Saturday, 3:30 p.m. ET, ESPN
Credit to Texas A&M, which rolls into this game 6-0, 3-0 in the SEC and pretty much sent Billy Napier into an early retirement with that statement win last week over the meager Florida Gators.
So, A&M rolls in this game, right?!
Frankly, I’m not so sure.
One, this will be A&M’s first SEC road game after three straight at home to open the season, and more importantly, it’s not like they’ve faced the most dynamic offenses in the sport in the process. So far, they’ve faced the 10th (Mississippi State), 14th (Florida) and 15th (Auburn) ranked offenses in the SEC, all of which are in the bottom half of the SEC in passing as well.
Arkansas is the best offense they’ve seen since Notre Dame (the game where they gave up 40 in a thrilling win) and say this for the Hogs: If they could just take care of the football, they’d actually be in pretty good shape right now. Of their four losses this year, three have come by six points or less (at Ole Miss, at Memphis, at Tennessee). All three were on the road, and they’ve turned the ball over a combined seven times in those games.
Play just a little bit cleaner football and this one could and will be close.
I’m not quite ready to call for the outright Hogs upset, but a 31-28 game feels about right in this one.
No. 21 Texas (-12) at Kentucky: Saturday, 7:00 p.m. ET, ESPN
Let’s get to the night session, and a game where I absolutely do not expect the home underdog to pull of the outright upset - Texas at Kentucky.
First off from the Texas perspective, we have to give credit for their win over Oklahoma last week. The headline was Arch Manning playing his best game. But conversely, Texas also had a true run game for the first time all season (136 yards and nearly four yards per carry against the No. 1 run defense in college football) and the defense looked like, well, the defense we were all expecting in the preseason. Yes, John Mateer was banged up, but it doesn’t change the fact that this team forced three turnovers and had five sacks in a dominant effort.
Which leads me to Kentucky, and a simple question: What is this team and program at this point? Even in the best of times no one would’ve described this offense as dynamic and now the defense is struggling as well. Off a bye vibes should be high, but instead, Mark Stoops (or his agent) is leaking his name as a candidate for other jobs, trying to drum up whatever interest they can in the corpse that is his head coaching career.
Put simply, barring something like a four-turnover performance (which is something that’s certainly possible on the road at night) I just don’t see how this is close, or frankly, how Kentucky moves the ball.
Final score 31-6, as Steve Sarkisian calls off the dogs by the middle of the third quarter.
No. 20 USC (+10) at No. 13 Notre Dame: Saturday, 7:30 p.m. ET, NBC
So I’ve got a confession to make: For years, I was against the idea of College Football Playoff expansion. My simple premise was “Why do we need to put more teams into a postseason where we know there are only 2-3 teams that can win it.”
To a degree I was right, but what I didn’t anticipate is this: How many more intriguing games it would create in October. In a four-team playoff era, Notre Dame would’ve been left for dead after an 0-2 start. Now, they still need help but are very much alive. Meanwhile, a week ago, USC played Michigan in a matchup of 5-1 teams, that felt like a mid-October playoff elimination game. They get another one of those matchups this weekend.
And as they head to South Bend, I cannot believe they’re a 10-point underdog.
I know it’s really square, but I do have to take the Trojans.
Yes, they have struggled on the road since joining the Big Ten (1-4 last year, 1-1 this year, with the only wins coming at UCLA and at Purdue). But at the same time, Jayden Maiava is playing at an elite level and the Notre Dame defense has struggled against the pass all year (106th nationally in pass defense).
Naturally I do worry a little bit about how the USC defense will hold up, but again, 10 points just feels like too many.
Give me a 35-28 Notre Dame win and a USC cover.
No. 11 Tennessee at No. 8 Alabama (-8): Saturday, 7:30 p.m. ET, ABC
It’s the third Saturday in October, so you know what that means: One of college football’s best rivalries in Tennessee and Alabama.
And thankfully it has become a rivalry again, with Tennessee winning two of the last three matchups between these two teams.
Of course at the same time, neither was in Tuscaloosa and - in a truly wild stat - the Vols haven’t won at Alabama since 2003.
Yes, you read that correctly. It’s been 22 years since Tennessee won at Alabama. And it’s hard to imagine them doing it here.
Look, the Vols are in the midst of another awesome season, and at 5-1 are on pace to surpass preseason expectations. At the same time, their best wins are at Mississippi State, Arkansas and Syracuse (clearly none are great) and in all those losses, each opponent was able to move the ball. Right now Tennessee ranks 14th in the SEC in total defense and 16th in pass defense.
That’s bad news going up against arguably college football’s best quarterback, on the road, at night.
Ty Simpson and the Tide passing game will simply be too much, as they pick apart a banged up and struggling Vol secondary. Joey Aguilar and the offense will keep things close for a bit, but I’m just not sure they have the firepower to move the ball for four quarters against an Alabama defense which is ranked Top 20 nationally and has faced all kinds of dynamic offenses so far (Missouri, Vanderbilt, Georgia, on and on).
The Tide win 34-24 and roll into their bye week with a result that has looked like a lot of other Tennessee matchups in Tuscaloosa of late.
Stay Aways:
No. 5 Ole Miss at No. 9 Georgia (-7.5), Saturday, 3:30 p.m. ET, ABC: While this one looks fun on paper, it’s a hard pass for me from a betting perspective. Ole Miss has played just one road game this year, at Kentucky in Week 2. So forgive me if I’m not sure a trip to Lexington over a month ago (even if the crowd was excellent) will have the Rebels ready for what’s coming their way Saturday. Conversely, Georgia easily could be 3-3 right now (they probably should’ve lost to Tennessee and the Auburn game unquestionably could’ve gone another way with a different call on the goal line last week) so I don’t feel great about them either.
If you feel strongly about one side, good for you. But this is a stay away to me.
Last Week: 4-3
Overall: 23-24