Week 10 college football picks - presented by circa sportsbook
Courtesy (Circa Sports)
Well folks, it’s Thursday and you know what that means: It’s time to make some college football picks!
And man, as we hit Week 10 it really is wild to look at this week’s slate specifically and see just how much this season went off the rails.
In August, Week 10 was supposed to be about Penn State-Ohio State and the Cocktail Party and four teams fighting for their playoff lives. Instead, it’s two legit title favorites and two teams… looking for new head coaches. In August, Vanderbilt-Texas was about one team trying to maintain their spot atop the SEC… but no one could’ve imagined it was Texas. In August, no one could’ve predicted that Kentucky-Auburn would be, a maybe literal, “loser leaves town” game for the losing coach.
Yet here we are and MAN, what a season its been for College Football.
So with that said, let’s get to the Week 10 picks!
As always, our point spreads are provided by our friends at Circa Sportsbook, which has just opened up a brand new sportsbook at Mint Kentucky Downs in beautiful Franklin, Kentucky. Located just 40 minutes from Nashville, it is THE place to watch your favorite team every Saturday and Sunday if you live in Tennessee, Kentucky, Indiana or anywhere nearby.
So thank you to Circa Sportsbook and thank you for your point spreads.
Now, let’s get to the Week 10 picks!
North Carolina (+2.5) at Syracuse: Friday, 7:30 p.m. ET, ESPN
It’s Halloween weekend, and you know what’s scarier than any ghost or goblin wandering through your neighborhood: Picking Bill Belichick and the boys to win an ACC game.
Only that’s exactly how we’re starting off the Week 10 picks baby!
Let’s get frisky!
First off, to their credit, the Tar Heels are due. As bad as things were early, UNC has kind of quietly evolved into the team I expected in the preseason: A very good defensive team that has to keep things low scoring and win on the margins. They haven’t quite got the “winning” part down yet, but in the last two weeks they have given up 38 total points, losing at Cal and against a ranked Virginia Team by a combined four points.
So the defense has definitely figured things out.
And while the Carolina offense will never be the 2008 New England Patriots, they are going up against a Syracuse squad that is ranked 17th out of 18 in the ACC in scoring defense and has given up 30+ points in four straight games.
Carolina’s defense shuts down a struggling Syracuse offense, and scores just enough to win the game outright.
It’s getting spooky in Chapel Hill, as the Tar Heels are about to win their first game of the Belichick era.
No. 9 Vanderbilt at No. 20 Texas (UNDER 45.5): Saturday, 12:00 p.m. ET, ABC
Let’s get to Saturday, and as mentioned above: What a difference a few months can make, huh?! Because honestly, in August who had “Vanderbilt: Top 10 team, very much in the playoff mix heading into October” on their bingo card. Certainly not me. Nor did I - or most of you have - “Texas coming off back-to-back miracle wins against Kentucky and Mississippi State and fighting for their playoff lives.”
Only that’s exactly where we are entering this game.
In terms of a pick, while I’m not super fired up to bet either side (Texas is a small favorite) the UNDER feels like the smart pick to me.
That’s because for all its flaws, the one thing that Texas does well is stop the run. They rank in the Top 5 nationally in run defense and give up the second fewest yards per carry of any team in the FBS (only Texas Tech is better). That’s bad news for a Vandy team that wants to run the ball, and for a QB in Diego Pavia that hasn’t hit the 200-yard mark through the air in three straight games.
Point being, expect Vandy to struggle to move the ball. And expect Texas to struggle to move the ball, because well, have you seen them this year?! The o-line stinks, they have had a consistent run game once this season (against Oklahoma) and just as Arch Manning was maybe starting to figure things out, he ended up in concussion protocol and might not play in this game.
This feels like a 20-17 game one way or the other with an easy under hit.
Mississippi State (+4) at Arkansas: Saturday, 4:00 p.m. ET, SEC Network
Let’s get to the late afternoon window and a fascinating matchup between Arkansas, which is winless in the SEC hosting Mississippi State which is… also winless in the SEC.
Yikes! It’s a game only a mother could love. But hey, at least someone’s coming out with an SEC win, right?!
And I’m taking the Bulldogs to get it done.
While both teams have been ohhhhhhhhh so close to picking up wins, I’ll be honest: It does feel like last week’s loss to Auburn took the wind out of Arkansas’ sails just a little bit. A 21-10 halftime lead led to a two-score loss, with four straight turnovers to end the game. Even in the pantheon of “Arkansas blowing late leads” that one was especially bad given the circumstances and opponent.
And what scares me more heading into this game, it’s that Arkansas’ weakness - turning the ball over at the worst possible time - is going up against the Bulldogs strength. The Hogs are dead last in the SEC in turnover margin, with 15 total turnovers on the season. All while Mississippi State is tied for the SEC lead in turnovers forced and leads the league with 11 interceptions.
Point being, expect a close, back-and-forth game where Arkansas turns the ball over at the worst possible time.
Basically, every other Arkansas game. And this ends with the same result as all the others: With a Hogs loss and a Mississippi State cover and outright win
Kentucky at Auburn (-10): Saturday, 7:30 p.m. ET, SEC Network
Man, you KNOW I’m feeling frisky when I’m taking Auburn - which was 0-4 in SEC play coming into last week - to win by double-digits in any game.
Let’s get crazy, PEOPLE!!!!!
Transparently though, I think it’s the right side.
First off, the Auburn defense isn’t just elite, it’s actually insane. The Tigers are in the Top 5 nationally in rush defense and if take out the opener against Baylor - where they faced the No. 5 pass offense in America on the road - they’d be Top 10 in pass defense as well. They held a Texas A&M team that is currently scoring 37 per game to one touchdown at home, and an Arkansas team that’s averaging 35 per game to just three second half points last week.
So that defense is elite. And while they’re going up against a much improved Kentucky offense - Cuter Boley is the real deal - I’m just not sure the Wildcats will be able to move the ball on the Plains, at night.
At the same time you’re probably saying “But Torres, have you seen the Auburn offense.”
Yes, I have. And yes, it’s that bad.
However, the Tigers did seem to definitely get some juice with Ashton Daniels under center. And while Hugh Freeze wouldn’t commit to him publicly as QB1 this week, umm, if he doesn’t he might lose his job.
Add in that Kentucky’s defense has somehow become comically bad under Mark Stoops and, if Daniels plays the way I think he can and will, Auburn wins this game 28-10 and covers with ease.
No. 23 USC at Nebraska (+7): Saturday, 7:30 p.m. ET, NBC
So look, I know that Matt Rhule is a James Franklin-esque like 1-84 against ranked teams in his career (rough, loose estimate) but this number is insane to me.
One, Nebraska is the home team at night.
Two, while their offense hasn’t clicked on all cylinders, both of their losses came to Top 25 defenses in America (Michigan and Minnesota). Even though they’re improved, I can promise you that USC isn’t that.
Three, as good as the USC offense is, I have worries: The Trojans have the No. 1 pass offense in America but are facing a Nebraska pass defense which ranks in the Top 5 in the country. And while Nebraska’s run defense hasn’t been great, USC could be without two starters on their offensive line.
Truthfully, I kind of think Nebraska wins this one outright.
But if you’re giving me a touchdown at home, you’re darn right I’m going to take it.
Give me the home team plus the points here.
No. 18 Oklahoma at No. 14 Tennessee (UNDER 56.5): Saturday, 7:30 p.m. ET, ABC
It’s the big, Saturday night SEC game. And while I know it’s not sexy, the UNDER feels like the right side here.
First off, Oklahoma’s defense is coming off their worst performance of the season last week against Ole Miss. I know that the Ole Miss offense is good, but my hunch is that after being embarrassed last week we get a much better effort on Saturday and slow down Tennessee’s offense which has been scorching hot.
On the other side, I’ve got to ask: Are we sure John Mateer is good?!
I know he was the big name in the portal. And I know he looks the part when he runs through the tunnel. But through eight games is completing 63 percent of his passes with eight touchdowns and six interceptions. And don’t blame his thumb injury, because he isn’t either.
Bottom line is I think Oklahoma’s defense is able to slow down the Tennessee offense. And if we’re being honest, I think the Oklahoma offense does a good job of slowing itself down too.
Give me a 24-21 Tennessee win and an easy under.
Happy Halloween everyone!
Last Week: 2-3
Overall: 29-28-1