Credit: Texas Athletics
It’s Friday, and you know what that means: It’s time to make some college football picks!
And people, things have officially gotten weird in college football.
We’re coming off a weekend where five of the top seven teams in the AP Poll lost, all while a school like Kentucky is trying to get to 7-1 and keep their playoff hopes alive.
So with it, let’s get to this week’s picks.
As always, odds are provided by our friends at Kalshi.
Remember, if you download the Kalshi app, you get $25 free when you make your first $25 trade - when use code “AARON.”
Now, let’s get to the picks.
No. 6 Indiana at Michigan (UNDER 41.5): Saturday, 12:00 p.m. ET, FOX
Let’s start in Ann Arbor, with an all-of-a-sudden intriguing game between Michigan and Indiana.
That’s because just a week ago, Indiana an unbeatable juggernaut of a defending champion and Michigan had, statistically one of the offenses in college football (and aesthetically the worst… by a long shot).
Well, after Indiana took its first loss in forever, and Michigan seemed to finally find a quarterback (RIP Bryce Underwood’s Michigan career) how much has changed?!
Honestly, I’m just not sure.
Look, for as fun as the Tommy Carr story was last week we need to remember: He only threw seven passes the entire game. And for those who say “well, he only played a half,” ok cool. That means over a 60 minute, full game he would’ve thrown the ball 14 times. Can you do that and beat Indiana? Especially when the Hoosiers now have some tape on you?
Then there’s Indiana, and it may be time to admit: This team is still really good… but not quite as dynamic on offense.
To Josh Hoover’s credit he has limited the turnovers, but he’s still completing just 63 percent of his passes. And is coming off an abysmal 20 of 40 passing performance against Ohio State.
Well, things won’t get much easier this week.
That’s because while there has been plenty of talk about Michigan’s offense, what has gone semi-unnoticed (at least by non-Michigan fans) is that they again have an elite defense. The Wolverines rank No. 1 in the country in yards per play allowed, No. 4 in total defense and haven’t given up more than 20 points in a game all year. And the game they gave up 20 was against Iowa, which scored a third of those points on the final play of the game.
I do still think Indiana wins, but Michigan keeps it close.
Give me Indiana 20, Michigan 13 and an under here.
No. 18 LSU at Auburn (UNDER 50.5): Saturday, 12:00 p.m. ET
It feels like everyone and their mother is on Auburn here.
After all, LSU is 0-2 on the road this season and Auburn is coming off the stunner at Georgia last week.
You’ve got to take the Tigers getting over a touchdown, right?!
I’m not so sure, mainly because I’m not really sure that Auburn’s performance against Georgia is replicable. In that game, Georgia had over 100 more yards of total offense, and really only won the game because they were +3 in turnover margin against the Dawgs. Considering that Georgia only has eight turnovers all year, it feels like that was result was much more “fluke” than it was “a sustainable way to win games.”
Therefore instead of taking the obvious “Auburn plus the points” I’ll take the UNDER.
Put bluntly, I’m just not sure Auburn will be able to move the ball on this LSU defense.
And when LSU has the ball, I’m just not sure that Lane Kiffin really trusts Sam Leavitt, and will instead rely on the defense and run game to win him this game.
Add in an 11am local time start and LSU heading into the bye after this week, and this feels like a sloppy, low-scoring 24-17 type game and easy under here.
Texas A&M at No. 13 Alabama (-13.5): Saturday, 3:30 p.m. ET, ABC
This number has actually come down from 14.5, so maybe I should take that as a warning sign to back Texas A&M.
But instead, I’m rolling with Bama.
Look, have the last two weeks been bad for the Crimson Tide?! Sure.
At the same time, there are two things that have plagued the Crimson Tide: Two teams with an ability to run the ball right at them, and two defenses that have an ability to get after the quarterback.
I’m not sure Texas A&M can do either.
I mean sure, statistically, A&M has a solid rush offense. They rank 63rd nationally. Yet those numbers dip statistically when they played ranked teams and go on the road. Heck, in their two road games, they’ve combined for 118 yards of rush offense and zero offensive touchdowns.
Beyond that though, you know what’s shocking about this Texas A&M team: One of college football’s ferocious fronts (say that ten times fast) is having trouble getting to the quarterback. A year ago the Aggies ranked fourth in sacks, yet have somehow fallen to 134th (and last in the SEC) in the same category in 2026. A year ago they were third nationally in tackles for loss, this year they’re 83rd.
In the end, we have seen that there is a blueprint to beat Alabama.
I’m just not sure Texas A&M is the team to execute it.
Tide win 30-14 and head into their bye next week.
Vanderbilt (+10.5) at No. 12 Kentucky: Saturday, 7:30 p.m. ET, ESPN
So, I want to be clear: I am not picking Vanderbilt to beat Kentucky here.
But I am slowly talking myself into Vanderbilt keeping things close.
First off, Kentucky is going into its bye next week. After an emotionally draining couple weeks, that includes (and I still can’t believe I’m typing this) wins over Oklahoma, LSU and Texas A&M among others, it is easy to see them having a little bit of a letdown here. Even in a home game at night.
Two, say what you want about Vanderbilt, but they can move the ball. Their big issue is turnovers.
Well, if they can just take care of the ball, they are going against a Kentucky pass defense which ranks 112th nationally.
So, can I see Vanderbilt able to move the ball against an emotionally exhausted Kentucky team and keep things close… with Kentucky still finding a way to win 31-23?
I can.
Wildcats win. Vandy covers.
No. 7 Ole Miss at No. 19 Texas (-3.5): Saturday, 7:30 p.m. ET, ABC
So, I already know what you’re thinking: Torres you’ve been trashing Arch Manning on the pod all week.
You’re saying Steve Sarkisian should bench him. And that’s not very good.
All that is true, which is why you probably find this pick a bit shocking.
Well, there are two reasons I expect Texas win this game here, besides the cliche “they’re at home at night.”
One, Ole Miss’ defense is the most confusing thing in college football right now. They rank 90th or worse in total defense, pass defense and run defense, yet… are only giving up 23 points per game. Heck, in the last two games they have given up over 700 yards of total offense and only 20 points per game.
Thousands of years from now mathematicians will still be trying to figure out how this Rebels defense is able to keep everyone off the board.
But two, I think we see a much improved Texas offense this week, for one very obvious reason: If Arch Manning doesn’t play well, and early he’s going to get benched.
You could hear the tone change in Steve Sarkisian’s voice this week from “if his name was Joe Smith you’d be praising him” to “Arch needs to be better” - which in my opinion is Steve Sarkisian’s way of saying “I’m not letting this guy get me fired.”
Expect a better offense, whether its with Arch Manning or KJ Lacey at quarterback.
And expect a 31-24 Texas win.
Last week: 2-4
Overall: 17-21