Credit: USC Athletics
Well folks, it’s Wednesday and you know what that means: It’s time to make some college football picks!
Forgive me for saying the same thing I do every week, but umm…. how is it Week 9 already?!
I have no idea, but with several big-name programs (Alabama, LSU, Tennessee, Kentucky etc.) on byes, we’re going to go in a different direction on some of these picks.
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Now, let’s get to this week’s picks.
No. 22 Arizona (+3.5) at No. 13 Texas Tech: Saturday, 12:00 p.m. ET, ESPN
As mentioned, with some of the more “public” teams off this weekend, we’re going a bit off the radar and to one of the best stories in college football no one is talking about: The Arizona Wildcats.
The Wildcats are not only 6-1, but also control their own path to the Big 12 title game and College Football Playoff. They’ve also got one of the more under-the-radar Heisman candidate in America as well, in QB Noah Fifita. The four-year starter has thrown for 16 touchdowns so far this season.
And it’s because of Fifita - or at least in large part because of him - I’m backing the Wildcats here as they go on the road in Lubbock.
First off, doesn’t this line feel a little trappy?! Last week Texas Tech was an undefeated, Top 10 team. Now they lose one game, and are barely a field goal favorite at home?!
And two, that’s actually part of the reason why I like Arizona here: Are we sure Texas Tech is good?!
It’s not just about losing to Cincinnati last week. Their notable wins this season include a game where they trailed at the half to Colorado, a “blowout” against Sam Houston (where two pick sixes made it look way worse than it was), and a two-point win over Houston.
Even if we’re arguing Houston is good (I’m not sure they are), the extent of the Red Raiders’ resume to this point is one, close win over them at home that could’ve gone the other way.
Beyond that, stylistically there could be problems for Texas Tech, as coming into this game they have one of the worst pass defenses in the power four. They currently rank 126th out of 138 teams and have allowed 16 passing touchdowns, second most in the Big 12 (to their credit, they also have a Big 12 best 13 interceptions).
Going up against one of the best quarterbacks they faced all year, Fifita does enough to get the Wildcats the win and keep them alive in the Big 12 title race.
Kansas State at Colorado (+1.5): Saturday, 2:00 p.m. ET, TNT
Let’s stay in the Big 12 and let’s get right to my bold take: Colorado isn’t actually terrible.
Listen, I know everyone wants to throw dirt on Deion Sanders, especially after that strange “he offered people $50,000 not to talk about him” story that emerged this week (a quote that was obviously a joke).
But just look at Colorado’s last three games. While they haven’t come out on top in any of the three, they: Led Texas Tech at the half before losing, lost to Utah by three in a game where they the ball with a chance to win on the final possession, and led at Oklahoma State last week.
Also in all three of those games, they averaged close to 400 yards per game (389 per game to be exact) and simply couldn’t close.
Now they’re going up against a Kansas State team that is solid, but could be playing a back-up quarterback here (Avery Johnson is listed as questionable coming into this one).
Colorado has been due to win one of these games, and they’ll get it done on Saturday.
No. 17 Florida vs. No. 3 Georgia (-11.5): Saturday, 3:30 p.m. ET, ABC (in Atlanta)
With renovations to the stadium in Jacksonville, the World’s Largest Outdoor Cocktail Party is no longer outdoors.
And with Georgia winning eight of the last nine, I’m also not sure how much of a rivalry this game is either.
Unfortunately for the Gators, I don’t think it changes this week.
Look, I like Jon Sumrall.
But this just feels like the wrong spot for Florida to win, or frankly even keep things close.
Georgia is of course coming off a loss, and more importantly, a loss where they were uncharacteristically loose with the ball. Georgia has eight turnovers all season long and three came against Auburn.
Basically, if Georgia just takes care of the ball, they beat the Tigers in that game.
Now they come in off a loss and with two weeks to stew over it.
I’d also add that this just feels like a bad stylistic matchup for the Gators.
Through seven games it feels like there’s a very clear blueprint to beat Florida: Can you throw the ball, and can you stop the run? If you can, you’re probably winning.
Florida ranks 85th in college football in pass defense (a number that jump significantly after holding Arch Manning in check a few weeks ago) and they are 0-2 in games where Baugh has been held under 90 yards (they are of course, 5-0 in games where he goes over that mark).
Well, the Dawgs enter this game with a Top 30 pass offense and a Top 10 run defense.
I could go on and on, and do believe that eventually Jon Sumrall will get this program competing with Georgia as their peer.
I’m just not sure it’s this season.
And certainly not in this game.
Georgia 31, Florida 13
No. 1 Miami at North Carolina (+14.5): Saturday, 7:30 p.m. ET, ABC
While the other 7:30 ET game (which we’ll get into in a minute) is the more intriguing one nationally, I do wonder if this is a trap spot for Miami.
The Hurricanes are coming off a bludgeoning of Pittsburgh at home, and then travel to Notre Dame next week in the biggest game of their season.
Then there’s North Carolina, and a few thoughts on them.
One, statistically they do one thing better than just about anyone in college football: They limit explosive plays. The pass defense isn’t great overall, but they rank in the Top 20 in terms of fewest plays allowed over 10 yards. In a game where Miami wants to throw the ball over the field with Darian Mensah and Malachi Toney, I believe they can keep them in check.
Two, while the Tar Heels aren’t perfect, Bill Belichick has turned them into a real team. They’re sitting at 4-3 overall, and of their three losses, two (Clemson and Syracuse) came when they had a lead in the fourth quarter. They are like, shockingly close to being 6-1 and very much in the playoff mix.
Their only other loss this season came to Notre Dame by 11.
If you can hang with Notre Dame at home, you can hang with Miami.
And finally, while this isn’t any sort of provable thing, every Saturday night 7:30 p.m. ET game has been WILD this year, except Week 1 in Clemson-LSU.
Think about it, here are some of the 7:30 p.m. ET, Chris Fowler/Kirk Herbstreit games:
Texas-Ohio State. LSU-Ole Miss. Georgia-Alabama. Notre Dame-BYU. Ole Miss-Texas.
Again, weird stuff happens with Fowler and Herbie in the booth approaching the 11 p.m. ET hour.
And you don’t think it will again on Halloween weekend?
Miami wins 31-24, but it’s a battle.
No. 2 Ohio State at USC (+6.5 and UNDER 51.5): Saturday, 7:30 p.m. ET, NBC
Finally, let’s wrap with the big one, and the big question: What the heck is going on with USC?
And is Lincoln Riley going to survive this season?!
Bluntly, I’m not sure the answer on either, but I actually think everything is setting up here for a close game at the Coliseum.
One, for all the frustration with USC, it’s been - surprisingly - their offense which has struggled and their defense which has stepped up of late. In their last three games, USC’s defense has allowed 24, 23 and 21 points. While those numbers aren’t great, when you have an “offensive guru as your head coach” that should be more than enough points for you to win games.
Unfortunately it hasn’t been enough to win close games, but they have kept things close. And I’d expect the same this weekend against an Ohio State team which will be - as you’ve probably heard - starting a back-up QB making his first career start this week.
Then there’s when USC has the ball, and umm, as I just said, they’re not exactly moving it up and down the field at will. And it certainly doesn’t help that this week they will be going against arguably the best defense in college football.
I could go on and on, but ultimately I expect a close, low scoring game and the Buckeyes to win down the stretch.
Ohio State 21, USC 17.
The Buckeyes win and improve to 7-1.
And the pain continues for Lincoln Riley and the Trojans.
Last Week: 2-3
Overall: 19-23