Credit: Notre Dame athletics
It’s Thursday and you know what that means: It’s time to make some Week 7 college football picks!
And it’s time to make some college football picks, with a little swag.
That’s because for the first time in a long time we can officially say: We’re coming off back-to-back winning weeks.
Dammit, does it feel good to get back on track.
Now, it’s time to do it again
So with that, let’s get to the Week 7 picks, with all odds provided by Kalshi.
Remember, if you download the Kalshi app, you get $25 free when you make your first $25 trade - when use code “AARON.”
Now, let’s get to the picks.
No. 4 Ohio State at No. 5 Indiana (+3.5) - Saturday, 12:00 p.m. ET, FOX
So there are a few games in the noon ET, 11 a.m. window which intrigue us, and let’s start with the biggest one.
Ohio State vs. Indiana.
A rematch of last year’s Big Ten title game.
And very likely the biggest game of the Big Ten regular season.
And I can’t lie, I went into my prep thinking one thing…. and came out thinking another.
My first hunch in this game was to back Ohio State. The Buckeyes are as good as any team in the country. Their only loss was a game where they led by 20 going into the fourth quarter. And Indiana has struggled agaisnt both Northwestern and Nebraska so far.
Even if those teams are good, you’ve got to back the Buckeyes here, right?! That was my first thought.
But then as the week unfolded, I realized something: There are a lot of things that favor the Hoosiers here that we aren’t talking about enough.
One, Indiana’s defensive line is nasty. They rank eighth nationally in TFL’s and I do wonder if they can rattle Julian Sayin. It doesn’t help that Ohio State has struggled to run the ball all year, putting even more pressure on the Ohio State passing game.
So basically, this game comes down to: Will Sayin have time to find Jeremiah Smith, and can Jeremiah Smith keep doing Jeremiah Smith things?
Which leads me to this: If you can somehow slow down Smith, what is Ohio State’s offense?! I’m honestly not sure.
And while I’m not sure there’s a real way to “slow down Jeremiah Smith” if anyone can figure it out, it’s Curt Cignetti.
Give me a one score game either way.
I’ll take Indiana to win 24-21, but will take the points and the hook just to be safe.
No. 16 Mississippi State at No. 14 LSU (-14.5) - Saturday, 12:00 p.m. ET, ESPN
This is another game where my instincts initially told me to back the big, road dog.
After all, LSU is coming off a crippling loss that may have unofficially finished their playoff hopes. I also wasn’t sure the 11 a.m. kick-off helped LSU all that much, especially with all their other home games this season so far in primetime.
Was it possible the Tigers could come out flat?
Again, those were my initial thoughts, but then I dug a little deeper…. and by “deeper” I mean “I looked at the SEC injury report.”
On it, it lists both Kamario Taylor and star running back Fluff Bothwell as questionable. Even if Taylor can go - and Jeff Lebby’s comments earlier this week didn’t exactly give off the warm and fuzzies - we saw what this offense looked like without Bothwell for most of the Alabama game. It wasn’t pretty.
Both QB Kamario Taylor and RB Fluff Bothwell are questionable for Mississippi State. https://t.co/gFKk0Inlix
— Pete Thamel (@PeteThamel) October 15, 2026
Beyond that, while I can be critical of Nick Saban at times, it is also worth noting one thing: Kiffin absolutely thrives in spots where everyone is doubting him.
And you don’t think Kiffin will be fired up to prove the doubters wrong after hearing all week, not only about the loss to Kentucky, but also for his decision to punt on fourth down late in the game?!
We’ll wait to see if anything on Taylor’s status changes going into Saturday, but I expect a big win for the Tigers in Baton Rouge.
Florida at No. 7 Texas (-10.5): Saturday, 12:00 p.m. ET, ESPN
Yet another game where my initial instincts told me to go the other way, and take Florida and the points.
Meaning, I’ll either look like a genius come Saturday night… or will need to sell vital organs on the black market to pay my bills this month.
While America waits to find out the answer, here is why I am taking Texas:
Look, last week’s loss to Oklahoma was bad. No doubt. But it is worth noting that their defense is still elite and despite the offense’s struggles, they outgained Oklahoma over the totality of the game. Heck, Oklahoma needed a special teams touchdown just to stay in the game early, and a defensive touchdown to stay in the game late. Take away either of those plays, Texas wins going away.
Therefore, while Texas’ offense might not be as good as we hoped in the preseason, it isn’t as bad as it looked on Saturday either. And if there is EVER a week for Arch Manning to get right, it’d be against the SEC’s worst pass defense (and the 131st ranked pass defense in America).
Meanwhile when Florida has the ball, it’s worth asking: Has everyone kind of figured out the blueprint to slow them down? It truly seems like if you can take Jaden Baugh out of the game, the Gators really struggle.
For full context, he has just 72 combined rushing yards in Florida’s two losses. This after rushing for over 130 yards in each of the Gators’ first four games.
Well, with Texas sporting a Top 20 run defense, it seems like the blueprint is there to slow him down.
Again, this is a get right game for Arch Manning and Texas, while Florida plays its seventh game before heading into the bye next week.
Texas 31, Florida 13 as the Longhorns cruise to a win.
No. 6 Alabama at No. 14 Tennessee (UNDER 51.5) - Saturday, 3:30 p.m. ET, ABC
Let’s get to the 3:30 p.m. ET window, and the big one in Knoxville. It is the third Saturday in October, which means it’s Alabama vs. Tennessee.
And I can’t lie, the under feels almost so obvious that it actually concerns me.
The bottom line is that as Tennessee battles QB injuries, they seem to be relying almost exclusively on the run game and defense to win them games. At this point they’re not even really trying to throw the ball, as they rank 111th nationally and 16th in the SEC in pass offense.
Crazy stat: Oklahoma…. OKLAHOMA, is averaging more pass yards per game than Tennessee has this year.
Insane, and why the UNDER is the only play here.
Tennessee is going to try to run the ball, and run it again and run it again, and they’ll be going up against an Alabama run defense which ranks in the Top 25 nationally.
Put another way, just look at the point totals in Tennessee’s SEC games.
They are 41 (versus Arkansas last week), 38 (vs. Auburn) and 37 (versus Texas).
Conversely, as good as Alabama’s offense can be, they will be facing a Tennessee defense that has been elite all season.
Fifty-one points feels way too high, so we’ll take the UNDER here.
No. 13 Missouri (+6.5) at No. 9 Ole Miss: Saturday, 3:30 p.m. ET, SEC Network
Look, I know that Ole Miss has some good vibes right now, coming off last week’s drubbing against Vanderbilt.
But I’m going to draw the line in the sand and just say it: I’m really not sure Ole Miss is good.
Looking at that game from last week, Ole Miss won 52-17, but here are the crazy stats. They had only three more first downs than Vanderbilt (22 to 19) and had only 60 more yards of total offense than the Commodores. The difference was that Vanderbilt turned the ball over four times.
Beyond that, Ole Miss’ ground game has been awful in every game but Vanderbilt this year.
Well, going against a Top 10 Missouri run defense, I’m just not sure how effectively they move the ball.
Give me Missouri in a 24-20 win, that puts them squarely in the playoff conversation.
No. 2 Notre Dame at No. 8 BYU (UNDER 47.5): Saturday, 7:30 p.m. ET, ABC
Finally, let’s get to the big one on Saturday night, a game you could legitimately argue is the biggest game in Provo in decades.
Two Top 10 teams. Both undefeated. Oh, and the winner has to feel reallllllllly good about making the playoff.
And two teams, that frankly play a lot like each other.
Seriously, looking at the stats on these two teams, it’s fascinating how similar they are.
Both BYU and Notre Dame are Top 10 in the country in rush defense.
Both are Top 30 in pass defense.
They’re both Top 40 in rush offense.
Both BYU and Notre Dame are Top 25 nationally in turnover margin.
Bottom line, both teams want to run the ball right at you, want to stop the run and don’t make mistakes.
And because of it, I think this is a close, low scoring game.
Ultimately I do think Notre Dame wins, simply because they have the better quarterback and also because BYU is down its best skill position guy (running back LJ Martin).
But this game screams 24-14, with not a lot of points and defense reigning supreme.
Enjoy the games everyone!
Last week: 4-2
Overall: 15-17