Week 6 college football picks: georgia-bama, ucla-oregon, red river + more!

Credit: Georgia athletics

It’s Friday and you know what that means, people: It’s time to make some Week 6 college football picks.

That’s right, another Friday is coming and I’ve got to be real: It feels good to come off a winning week. We nailed several of our best bets in Week 5, including the Ohio State-Iowa UNDER (shout out Kirk Ferentz) and Missouri steamrolling Florida.

But, as the great philosopher Lamar Jackson once said “Nobody cares, work harder.”

(For those keeping score at home, yes I used that quote last week. And will probably use it again going forward as well)

Now, let’s get to this week’s picks, with all odds provided by Kalshi.

Remember, if you download the Kalshi app, you get $25 free when you make your first $25 trade - when use code “AARON.”

Now, to the picks:

Texas A&M at No. 14 Missouri (-3.5): Saturday, 12:00 p.m. ET, ABC

Let’s start in the SEC and one of the genuinely more intriguing games on the slate.

Both Texas A&M and Missouri are coming off dominant wins (over Arkansas and Florida respectively), which raises the question(s): Did both teams catch the right opponent at the right time? Or is there something genuinely sustainable about the way each played last week?

To answer that question from the A&M perspective, I do not believe the answer is yes. Their approach to beating Arkansas was “running the ball right down their throats” doesn’t seem sustainable over six more weeks of football.

But from the Missouri perspective the answer is…. maybe?!

First off, I’ve got to be real: I didn’t realize just how good Austin Simmons is. The Ole Miss transfer was lights out last week and on the season is now sporting a staggering 13-0 TD-to-INT ratio. More than anything, I expect he and Jamal Roberts to lead a balanced attack, that puts just enough points on the board against the Aggies.

Conversely, did we actually learn anything from A&M’s beat down against Arkansas? If you really watched the game, Texas A&M had nearly three times as many rush attempts (49) as pass attempts (19), which is a great gameplan against the Razorbacks, But again, I’m not sure will work here. Not against Missouri’s Top 20 rush defense.

Give me the Tigers in a 28-17 win to improve to 5-1 heading into Ole Miss next week.

UCF at No. 18 Oklahoma State (-10.5): Saturday, 12:00 p.m. ET, ESPN2

Confirmed ball knowers understand just how good Oklahoma State is, but for those who don’t let me put it out there: We need to start legitimately talking about the Cowboys as a Big 12 title contender. Which in turn, of course, makes them a College Football Playoff contender.

Yes, they’re that good. And while the Tulsa game early was rocky, they’ve since beaten Oregon and won at West Virginia, and coach Eric Morris and Drew Mestemaker have basically picked up right where they off at North Texas a year ago. The Cowboys currently sit at No. 2 in the country in total offense with both Top 25 run and pass offenses.

They’re going up against a UCF team that appears to be getting better in Year 2 for Scott Frost. But I’m not sure “better” can keep up with the No. 2 offense in college football. Especially with the Knights sporting the nation’s 88th ranked past defense.

Look for Oklahoma State to pile on the points early and often in a dominant win.

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Oklahoma (+7.5) vs. No. 1 Texas (Cotton Bowl, Dallas, TX): Saturday, 3:30 p.m. ET, ABC

Let’s switch gears and head to the Cotton Bowl, for one of the great rivalries in all of sports.

Texas vs. Oklahoma. Red River Shootout (yes, we still call it the shootout). A stadium that’s half crimson and cream and half burnt orange.

And with Texas coming in as the No. 1 team in the country, you’ve got to take the Longhorns, right?!

Actually, I’m going to do something crazy: I’m going to take Oklahoma to cover, and potentially win.

Look, I know it sounds wild, but let me explain.

One, for all their faults on offense, Oklahoma’s defense is still elite. They currently rank fourth nationally in total defense, with one of the best rush defenses in all of college football. And let’s be honest: It’s not like Texas is lighting the world on fire offensively. They currently have the 88th ranked offense in college football. Incredibly, Auburn - which basically can’t move the football - has a better offense than they do.

So, yeah Texas’ offense isn’t good.

And I’m not going to lie, neither is Oklahoma’s.

But I’ll also say this: While Oklahoma’s offense isn’t good (it isn’t) their bigger issue is turnovers.

Here’s a crazy stat for you, do you know that in Oklahoma’s two losses this year (Michigan, Georgia) they actually have more combined yardage than their opponents?! The problem is, they also lost the turnover battle 6-2 in those games (or as we like to call it, Oklahoma got Mateer’d). This team has been able to move the ball. They just need to limit the turnovers.

I’m willing to think off a bye, in a big rivalry game Mateer will play to the best that he’s capable of. Add it in with that OU defense and a struggling Texas offense, and I believe OU can keep things close enough to win and maybe have a chance to win outright!

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No. 21 UCLA (+11.5) at No. 13 Oregon: Saturday, 3:30 p.m. ET, CBS

Next, let’s head out West for a Top 20 matchup with major playoff implications: UCLA at Oregon.

And I’ve got ask: Isn’t this game what makes college football great?

Coming into the season, Oregon was most everyone’s darling, seemingly a playoff lock and some people’s national title pick (ahem, mine). Now, they need to win here to keep their playoff hopes alive. On the flip side, there’s UCLA which few saw sitting at 5-0. And if they win this game, well I’m just going to say it: They’re going to make the playoff. Look at their schedule, where their current toughest games are Wisconsin and USC at home and Michigan on the road. They’re going 10-2 at worst, if they survive Eugene.

So will they? I don’t know.

But I do think they keep it close enough to cover, and it’s because to me, this is the classic “Styles make fights” game.

That’s because UCLA is No. 4 nationally, and No. 1 in the Big Ten in rushing offense.

A great run game helps take the crowd out of the game. But also, they’re also going to be running against an Oregon defense that umm, at times has struggled. There was oh, I don’t know, that 550+ yards they gave up to Oklahoma State. And even in the win against USC a few weeks ago, they still gave up close to 450 yards of total offense as well. And remember, that was against a USC team without their best wide receiver, Trent Mosely.

Do I think UCLA will actually pull the upset?

I think it’s possible.

But do I believe they’ll keep it close in something like a 28-20 game and cover the 11.5?

Absolutely.

No. 10 LSU (-9.5) at Kentucky: Saturday, 7:00 p.m. ET, ESPN

So look, there has been no bigger fan of Will Stein and Kentucky football this season than me.

What Stein has done to get UK to 4-1 is incredible, and the fact that they fell out of the rankings after beating South Carolina this week is an embarrassment to all AP voters.

But as I mentioned, styles make fights, and I really do worry about the style of game here.

Look, as great as the win was for Kentucky last week, it is worth noting: South Carolina outgained the Wildcats, and UK did in fact fall down 17-0 before rallying.

Well, they can’t fall down against LSU, which not only has an explosive offense but the No. 1 defense in the SEC.

Seriously, I wonder how many people realize that the Tigers rank No. 2 in all of college football in total defense.

Add that the Tigers offense will be going against a banged up UK defense, one where Stein basically admitted that it’s patchwork to put together a linebacker room this week, and I think the Tigers pull away late.

Give me something like a 34-20 LSU win and cover for the Tigers.

No. 2 Georgia at No. 1 Alabama: Saturday, 7:30 p.m. ET, ABC

This game has been talked about, and talked about and talked about some more, so you don’t need 1,000 words of analysis here.

Let’s not beat around the bush: I like Alabama to win.

First off, there’s the whole “game is in Tuscaloosa” thing. Which definitely helps.

Two, I truly believe this is the best roster Kalen Deboer has had at Alabama - by a pretty big margin actually. Unlike the last two years where there gaping holes on this team, I don’t really see a major weakness.

But finally, to me it’s about Keelon Russell.

Listen, we all know just how good this kid is. There’s a reason he’s currently third in the Heisman market at Kalshi (remember, you use code “Aaron” to get $25 when you make your first $25 trade!).

But beyond that, it’s also what Ryan Fowler said on the Aaron Torres Podcast earlier in the week: He is the exact kind of QB that has given has Kirby Smart’s defenses fits for years. Dating back to his days as Alabama defensive coordinator, right through his time at Georgia, what is the one thing Smart’s defense (not to mention pretty much every other great defensive coordinator) has never been able to account for: A guy who can beat you with his arm… and his legs.

That’s Keelon Russell.

I’d also add: How good is Georgia exactly?

Yes, they’re elite.

But people are talking about them as the No. 1 team in the country without considering that their SEC wins are over Vanderbilt, Arkansas and Oklahoma, which are all bad and statistically the worst three defenses in the SEC.

Even if some of those teams struggles are in part about Georgia, quite a bit is just that they aren’t good.

Give me Alabama in a 28-20 win, and another statement victory for Kalen Deboer.

Enjoy the games everyone!

Last week: 4-2

Overall: 11-15