Week 5 College Football Betting Picks: Bama-Georgia, Oregon-Penn State + more

Written By Tara Watrous

Sponsored by Circa Sports

Well everybody, it's Wednesday and you know what that means: It's time to make some Week 5 college football picks.

And man, oh man, oh what a weekend are we about to preview.

Yeah, I know, guys like me always claim every Saturday to be "the best weekend we've ever seen" but this one really is next level. It's not just that you have the two mega-matchups (Bama-Georgia, Oregon-Penn State) or even an LSU-Ole Miss game that all of a sudden got more spicy because of Lane Kiffin's daughter's dating life. It's that we have a million other intriguing games on top of them, from USC-Illinois, Auburn-Texas A&M, Ohio State-Washington on and on.

Even better, we're coming off our best week of the season - after going 5-2 against the spread last week.

So let's dive in, and as always a couple quick reminders.

One, our point spreads - as always are being provided by Circa Sportsbook, which in addition to their incredible Las Vegas facility have now opened a new sportsbook at Mint Kentucky Downs, in Franklin, Kentucky. It's an exact replica of the sportsbook in Las Vegas and folks, it's spectacular.

Also, a reminder: Make sure you're subscribed to our "College Football Betting Pod" which drops every Thursday morning. Hate to brag but I really do think it's the best college football preview content you'll find anywhere. And is now available on Apple, Spotify or YouTube. Yes, we're on YouTube, baby!

Now, let's stop wasting time and get to the Week 5 picks!

No. 21 USC at No. 23 Illinois (+7): Saturday, 12:00 p.m. ET, FOX

For all the talk about the three big mega matchups this weekend (Bama-Georgia, Oregon-Penn State, LSU-Ole Miss), there is a fourth Top 25 matchup that in many ways is just as intriguing.

It's USC at Illinois and with it we should start to be able to answer two simple questions:

  1. Is USC actually legit?!

  2. Is Illinois as bad as they looked last Saturday against Indiana?

My hunch on the answers to those questions are: "Maybe" and "no."

Let's start with Illinois. Because while I did think they were a little overvalued coming into the year, and while I did think Indiana was way undervalued (I picked them to make a second straight playoff) no one could've predicted what we saw last weekend.

It was ugly. Unless you were a Hoosiers fan. Or Indiana bettor (which thankfully, if you followed last week's picks, you were).

Therefore, back at home I expect a better effort from the Illini this weekend.

Then, there's USC and let's have a conversation about them.

I've been impressed by their start, but yeah... I need to see more.

First off, while the offense is again humming, I'd like to see them do it against slightly better competition. So far they have faced the 82nd (Purdue), 92nd (Michigan State), 93rd (Missouri State) and 130th (Georgia Southern) defenses in college football this season. If you want to argue that those defenses' numbers have been impacted by facing USC I'll agree with you - to a point. They might also just stink.

Let's also remember that while USC beat Michigan State by 21 points at the Coliseum last week, they led by one score going into the fourth quarter. It was far from the blowout that it looked like when you woke up on Sunday.

Speaking of "waking up on Sunday," I do think that kick puts USC in a tough spot here. Their game on Saturday ended at close to midnight PT, 3 a.m. ET - and now they have to fly across country and play what is essentially a 9 a.m. Los Angeles kick.

It's a tough spot, and I think this line is a bit of an over-correction.

USC might win. But not by the margin our friends at Circa are prediction. Take the Illini and the points at home.

No. 22 Notre Dame at Arkansas (+5): Saturday, 12:00 p.m. ET, ABC

My initial thought here was to simply take the OVER.

Mainly because both defense stink. Like, really, realy bad. Like rotten eggs sitting out in 100 degree sun bad.

But then I decided against it for a few reasons.

First off, with a local 11 a.m. kick, I do think both teams may start sluggish.

But two, I also think that after a week of Arkansas' defense hearing that not only that they stink, but that they're about to cost Sam Pittman his job (reports are that heading into a bye, if it gets ugly this weekend Pittman will be fired) we'll get a better effort from them this weekend.

So, if Arkansas can get just a tiny bit of a better effort this weekend from their defense, I like the home team and the points here.

Razorback Stadium is a tough place to play and Taylen Green is impossible to defend when he's clicking.

He isn't perfect (and gets a little loose with the ball sometimes) but is also facing one of the worst pass defenses in America, off of back-to-back brutal losses in games the Hogs could've won.

Therefore, I'll take the home team and the points. Arkansas covers with a chance to win late.

No. 1 Ohio State at Washington (UNDER 53): Saturday, 3:30 p.m. ET, CBS

Sometimes, you've just got to talk a bet out - and this is one of these cases.

Let's talk out Ohio State at Washington.

One, the stadium will absolutely be rocking. It will also be the first career road start for Julian Sayin, in a cross-country trip in a game where Washington also boasts a Top 25 defense through a quarter of their season (admittedly, against not great competition). Does that sound like a spot where Ryan Day is gonna say "Let's let 'er rip" or will he play it close to the vest and rely on the run game and defense?

Conversely, while Washington's offense is putting up huge numbers, let's also remember that their three wins have come against UC-Davis, Colorado State and Washington State. It'll be a little bit of a different deal against this Buckeye defense. Especially for a Washington offense that is also starting a redshirt freshman (Demond Williams) at quarterback in the biggest game of his young career.

In the end, I think Ohio State wins, but really this just feels like a game where neither head coach is going to let his redshirt QB lose them the game. Especially with two otherwise solid (maybe even elite) defenses.

The UNDER is the right side here.

UCLA (+7) at Northwestern: Saturday, 3:30 p.m. ET, Big Ten Network

Given that these are quite possibly the two worst teams in the Big Ten, we'll be brief here.

UCLA is bad, we know that. But they are coming off a bye and I've quietly been impressed by the poise and tone of interim head coach Tim Skipper. Remember, Skipper was forced into action as a season-long interim at Fresno State a few years ago, and finished 6-7 that season. He knows what he's doing.

Beyond that, this legit might be UCLA's last, best shot to get a win this season and avoid finishing 0-12. Northwestern meanwhile is 1-2, but their only win was a victory over... Western Illinois.

This won't be a Football Mona Lisa, a game we'll be telling our grandkids about 30 years from now. But Nico and the boys go on the road and do enough to cover the touchdown that they're getting here.

No. 4 LSU at No. 13 Ole Miss (-2.5): Saturday, 3:30 p.m. ET, ABC

Alright enough dilly-dallying around and let's get to the big one in the 3:30 p.m. ET window, LSU at Ole Miss.

Or as I like to call it "The Battle for Landry Kiffin's heart."

That's right, this game comes just days after Lane Kiffin's daughter unofficially announced she's dating LSU linebacker Whit Weeks. And Kiffin promised points in response.

While I'm not quite sure that the OVER will hit (I'd actually lean UNDER) the right side of the bet here is Ole Miss.

First off, Ole Miss has itself a gamer in QB Trinidad Chambliss. Great name, great game, great story as he's gone from D2 National Champion to SEC starter. And what's even crazier to say is: In a year where LSU has already faced Cade Klubnik and DJ Lagway, I believe Chambliss - at least the way he's playing right now - is the best QB they've faced so far this season.

Then, there's the LSU offense and let's just say, umm, it's left a lot to be desired.

If you don't believe me, just asked the reporter who immediately used a press conference after an SEC home win against Florida to ask Brian Kelly what's wrong with the run game.

While I don't think it was the perfect question to lead off a press conference after Florida improved to 1-0, I don't think the premise was wrong either.

The Tigers rank just 112th in rush offense and are averaging under 17 points per game against FBS opponents. And that includes a defensive touchdown against Florida, so the amount of actual, offensive output is even less.

Add in the Landry Kiffin story and the revenge factor for the Rebels, who lost last year's game in Baton Rouge in walk off fashion, and I believe we see an Ole Miss win. And cover.

No. 6 Oregon at No. 2 Penn State (UNDER 52.5): Saturday, 7:30 p.m. ET, NBC

Alright let's get to the big ones, and let's start with the mega-showdown Saturday night in Happy Valley.

Oregon. Penn State. Top 10 matchup. Get-in price at close to $400 (use SeatGeek promo code "TORRES" to get $20 off, Penn State fans!) Whiteout crowd.

To quote the legend Jim Harbaugh.... "WHO'S GOT IT BETTER THAN US?! NOOOOOOOOOOOBOOOODY!!!"

In terms of this game, well, frankly I'm not really sure how much we know about either of these teams.

While all of the focus is on the murder's row of Nevada, Florida International and Villanova that Penn State opened the year with (yes, there's a heavy dose of sarcasm there), let's also acknowledge that Oregon hasn't exactly played some crazy group of heavy hitters either. The Ducks' schedule so far includes FCS opponent Montana State, arguably the worst Power 4 team in America Oklahoma State (a team that is so bad, the school would rather fire the greatest coach in program history rather than let him keep going), Northwestern (maybe the worst team in the Big Ten) and Oregon State (no longer a power conference school).

It's not to dismiss Oregon's 4-0 record. It's just to say they haven't seen anything like what they'll see Saturday.

Which is why the UNDER makes the most sense to me.

When Oregon has the ball, I expect them to try and take a lot off Dante Moore's plate, in the toughest road environment he's played in to date. Not to mention, it's not like Jim Knowles defense will give him much anyway.

And when Penn State has the ball, let's be honest: Has anyone been a bit underwhelmed by Drew Allar so far this season?! For the 37th straight off-season we were told why this year was going to be different for Allar, and for the 37th straight season he's been - as the kids say - kinda "mid" so far. His completion percentage is actually down from a season ago and he has four total touchdown passes against the three worst opponents he'll see all year.

Ultimately, it's just hard for me to envision either team being able to top the 28-point mark, and this one has 24-20 written all over it.

The under isn't sexy. But it is the right side here.

No. 17 Alabama at No. 5 Georgia (-3): Saturday, 7:30 p.m. ET, ABC

Now, let's get to the other big one, and boy oh boy is there a lot at stake in Athens, Georgia. Georgia hosting Alabama.

Georgia in the midst of a 19-game home win streak. Yet Kirby Smart is just 1-6 against Alabama.

Something has to give.

But to me it won't be Georgia's home win streak - as the Dawgs get the win here.

First off, let me say this: I have been impressed with Alabama and their ability to bounce back after that ugly loss to open the season at Florida State. But there's a difference "giving credit to Alabama for dominating two lousy teams" and "completely ignoring what happened in Week 1."

And honestly it feels like way too many people are simply pretending that either Alabama-Florida State didn't happen. Or that all of the Tide's problems are fixed.

Most specifically, forgive me if I'm still not sold on this Alabama offensive line. If I end up being wrong on this I'll own it, but remember, this was an offensive line that struggled all of last year, and it wasn't better in Week 1, giving up seven TFL's and three sacks to the Seminoles. Now, I'm supposed to believe that they're magically fixed after wins over... checks notes... UL-Monroe and Wisconsin? Even after Alabama rushed for just 72 yards a few weeks ago against the Badgers?

Sorry, I'm not sold.

Then there's Georgia. And while I think we're just ignoring some of Alabama's faults, I also wonder if we're overstating some of Georgia's problems.

First off to Kirby Smart's credit, he has fixed some things from last season. Remember, last year Georgia's run game was abysmal, and their receivers couldn't catch (literally, they led the country in drops). Well, fast-forward and this team put up 44 points at Tennessee two weeks ago, with Gunner Stockton throwing for 300 yards and the run game tallying 200 more.

Still, some would point to Georgia's putrid defensive effort against Tennessee. But quick question: Was it actually putrid?!

Yes, Georgia started out slow and gave up 21 points in the first quarter. But by definition that also means that they gave up 20 points in the final three quarters and overtime, with one of those TD's coming on a pseudo-fluky moon ball from Joey Aguilar to Chris Brazell. Speaking of which, after starting 14 of 14, Aguilar completed just 10 of his final 22 passes.

While Georgia's defense started slow, after they got Tennessee off-script they largely locked down and took over.

In the end, I by no means think this game will be a blowout. Nor will we come out of this one with the "Is Kalen Deboer the right guy for the job" discourse like after Florida State.

But there's a reason Georgia has won 19 games in a row at home. It'll be 20 straight on Saturday.

No. 25 BYU (-6.5) at Colorado: Saturday, 10:15 p.m. ET, ESPN

Finally, let's wrap with a late night Big 12 game and a quick question: Is anyone more underrated than BYU?

A year after winning 11 games the Cougars began the year ranked outside the Top 25, only to start the season 3-0. While the wins (Portland State, Stanford, at East Carolina) aren't amazing, the defense is. The Cougars rank in the Top 10 in the country in basically every important category including No. 1 in scoring defense and No. 2 in total defense. And keep in mind, they played an East Carolina squad a week ago on the road that had a Top 15 defense nationally and put up over 400 yards and 34 points on the road.

Then there's Colorado, and I'll be honest: I'm not sure anyone in the national media has been more of a Deion Sanders advocate than I have been. But something just seems off this year, and not the typical, national media "It's a circus over there" BS that most of the media tries to pedal.

At the same time, they've made several QB changes, and the defensive front - which was supposed to be a strength - has been pushed around in both losses this season.

Do I worry about the Cougars playing a second straight game on the road with a freshman QB? Sure.

But BYU is a Big 12 contender hiding in plain sight. I like them to win and cover.

Stay Aways:

No. 11 Indiana (-7.5) at Iowa - Saturday, 3:30 p.m., Peacock: No one loves Curt Cignetti and the boys more than I do (not sure if you heard, but I picked them to make the playoff. At the same time, this number opened at four and is now at 7.5, the biggest line move of the week in Circa's Sportsbook.

If anything I'm staying away for the principle of getting a bad number. I also don't love needing any team to beat Iowa by more than a TD in Iowa City.

Auburn at No. 9 Texas A&M (-6.5), Saturday, 3:30 p.m. ET ESPN: I can't bet this game for a simple reason on each side. On the A&M side, Mike Elko is either the humblest coach ever, or genuinely has concern about his team, saying of his defense "we're working through it" after giving up a bunch of points and yards at Notre Dame. Meanwhile, I can't take Auburn because, after the war they went through in Norman last week, it's a heck of an ask for them to go back on the road and get a win this Saturday.

If you have a great feel for this game, good for you. It's a total stay away to me.

Good luck with your bets, everyone!

Last Week: 5-2

Season: 14=12


Tara Watrous
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