week 5 college football best bets: alabama-miss state, ohio state-iowa + more!
Courtesy: Alabama athletics
Well folks, it’s Wednesday and you know what that means: It’s time to make some college football best bets!
Last week started off with a bang, with covers in the Texas-Tennessee and Ole Miss-Florida games… before things fell apart under the cloak of darkness.
Yet, as Lamar Jackson once said “No Excuses, Work Harder” which is exactly what we’re here to do today.
So with that, let’s get to our Week 5 best bets, with all odds provided by Kalshi.
Remember, if you download the Kalshi app, you get $25 free when you make your first $25 trade - when use code “AARON.”
Now, to the picks:
No. 7 Alabama at No. 16 Mississippi State (UNDER 60.5): Saturday, 12:00 p.m. ET, ABC
It’s a battle of Top 20 teams. Two of the best quarterbacks in college football. A legit Heisman contender (and maybe another after this game).
And I like… the under?!
Sayyyyyy WHAT?
Oh, I said it. And as much as I’d personally love to see a 38-30 shootout, I don’t think it’s happening.
One, bad weather is expected in StarkVegas on Saturday afternoon. Lots of rain. Lots of thunderstorms. And frankly, I wouldn’t be surprised if we saw a lightning delay or two. Nothing slows down a hot offense like heading to the locker room for hours on end. And I’m guessing it happens at least one Saturday.
Then there are other variables as well.
First off, Alabama will be the best defense the Bulldogs have seen all season. There is also the weird Alabama travel set-up, where they’ll be traveling to Starkville the day of the game. I know that by technicality the campuses are less than 90 minutes apart.
Still, something feels weird about that. Especially for an 11 a.m. local kick-off.
So yeah, this game feels like a 28-24 game one way or another when its all said and done.
I’m not totally sure who I like to win.
But I do like the UNDER.
No. 8 Florida at No. 25 Missouri (+4.5): Saturday, 3:30 p.m. ET, ABC
Now I know at first glance what you’re thinking: “Wow Torres. You spent all week hyping up Florida. Now you’re picking against them. What’s that about?!”
Well, it’s about a few different things. And no, none of them are “let down game coming off a historic, Top 10 home win either.”
I actually just honestly think this is a bad matchup for Florida.
By now we all know that what Florida does better than just about anyone: Run the ball. Like, “No. 2 rush offense in the entire SEC” type attack.
Well, Missouri has - at least to date - the best rush defense Florida has seen so far. Let’s just say that based on what we’ve seen so far I’m not sure Ole Miss adequately prepared the Gators for what is to come the rest of the season.
Then there’s the Missouri offense. And while I wouldn’t call it great, they do two things well: They throw it around the park and don’t turn it over.
On the “don’t turn it over” front, the Tigers have the fewest turnovers in the SEC with just two in four games, with Austin Simmons sporting an impressive 11-0 TD to interception ratio.
Add in that Simmons will be going up against America’s 113th ranked pass defense, and I believe the Tigers getting 4.5 at home is simply too many.
Give me Mizzou to cover.
No. 5 Ohio State at No. 14 Iowa (UNDER 45.5): Saturday, 3:30 p.m. ET, CBS
Besides the fact that basically every Iowa game should be an auto-under bet (their game total hit 39 last week - and that was with a TD in the literal final second of the game, and 29 two weeks before against Iowa State) I also think that the matchups themselves dictate a low-scoring game.
When Ohio State has the ball, well, here’s my question: Just how explosive is this offense when Jeremiah Smith isn’t cooking?! Now, maybe he’s just impossible to stop. But we saw in the second half against Texas that when the Longhorns took him out of the game, Ohio State’s offense sputtered. And while I’m admittedly not smart enough to figure out how to slow down Smith, I’m guessing if anyone can figure out how to do it, it’s this Iowa defense.
Meanwhile, when Iowa has the ball, well, we’ve all seen this offense. With due respect to their game-winning drive a week ago against Michigan, they finished the game with just 285 yards of total offense. And that was after they went on a 91-yard scoring drive in the final minutes to end the game.
Put simply, I see this game going like most others: Ohio State wins and flirts with a cover in something like a 24-10 win.
But the under hits with ease, which is why I’m taking it.
Wyoming at North Dakota State (-18.5): Saturday, 3:30 p.m. ET, CW
So we’ve decided to create a new game in this week’s picks.
It’s called “We’re backing North Dakota State until they give us a reason not to.”
(Sick name, huh?!)
In all seriousness though, how about those North Dakota State Bison? In their first year after moving up from the FCS to FBS they are 4-0 with three of their wins by 24 or more points. Their only “close” game was a 38-32 victory at Air Force, in a game that was 35-13 heading into the fourth quarter.
And really, that’s why I like North Dakota State. Admit it, the only thing you know about them is that this is their first year in the FBS after dominating FCS competition. And while everyone is worried about the “step up” in competition, here’s my question: Is there really a difference in competition between really bad G5 football and really good FCS football?
I don’t think the answer is “yes” and I will add: Sitting at 4-0, I truly believe the Bison are a threat to win the Mountain West and get the Group of 5 spot in the College Football Playoff.
That’s a ways away for now though, and instead let’s focus on Saturday: Where they beat Wyoming comfortably.
Auburn at No. 17 Tennessee (UNDER 54.5): Saturday, 3:30 pm. ET, ESPN
Another 3:30 p.m. ET game I love, and another UNDER baby.
So look, I know it’s not the sexiest play. But in this case it’s the right spot.
First off, we saw last week that Tennessee has a long way to go offensively. I’m not saying they’re bad, but the o-line needs work and so too does Faizon Brandon’s decision-making under pressure. Even if part of that is the whole “Texas’ defense is crazy good” angle, let’s also remember that Auburn’s defense can get after the quarterback too. They currently rank in the Top 25 nationally in both sacks and TFL’s, and if you take out the Florida game - Florida’s offense truly just might be that good - the Auburn defense has given up 16, 6 and 15 points in its other three games.
Then there is when Auburn has the ball, and umm, I don’t know how to say this delicately… but are we sure this offense is good?!
Or even serviceable?
They put up 17 points against Baylor. 21 points and 279 yards last week against Vandy. And in their big “scoring explosion” against Florida, they had 24 points with eight minutes left in the fourth quarter, before two late scores made it look closer than it was.
With Auburn going up against a much-improved Jim Knowles defense I expect close, low scoring and a narrow Tennessee win.
Arkansas (+14.5) at Texas A&M: Saturday, 7:00 p.m. ET, ESPN2
Ah, Arkansas at Texas A&M.
The rare rivalry game where the fans of these two teams actually hate their own teams more than their rivals coming into this one.
What a time to be alive!
In all seriousness, taking Arkansas here is a bet on three things.
First off, I’m not sure Texas A&M should be favored by 14.5 points against anyone right now. I’d say “sorry Aggie fans,” but you guys and girls already know I’m right.
Secondly, Arkansas is at least playing hard for Ryan Silverfield. They looked much improved last week, and their two losses - while blowouts - were against Georgia and Utah, two teams that are a combined 8-0.
But really more than anything, this game is a bet on history.
This game is always, weirdly close.
Think I’m lying?!
How about this: You know the last time this game has been decided by more than two touchdowns?!
How about 2016.
Since then, we’ve had six games decided by four points or less, including the last three.
Oh, and dating back to 2014 we’ve also had three overtime games.
I’m not sure what the score is, but my guess is it’s close.
And if history is any indication: Arkansas loses in the most heartbreaking way possible.
Enjoy the games everyone!
Last Week: 2-3
Overall: 7-13