Week 4 college football picks: Who has the edge in the sec’s wild week 4 slate
Via Tennessee athletics
Well folks, it’s Friday and you know what that means: It’s time to make some Week 4 college football picks.
And boy, oh boy, oh boy what a loaded slate do we have.
Over on the Aaron Torres Pod we’re calling it “Separation Saturday” in this league, as we have four marquee matchups, with seven of the eight teams featured in the Top 25 (the eighth, Oklahoma dropped out this week) even after a win. And that doesn’t even include the two marquee showdowns in the Big Ten as Iowa travels to Michigan and Oregon visits USC.
So yeah, it’s LOADED and so with that, let’s get to the picks.
As always, all spreads are available via Kalshi.
Now, let’s get to the picks!
No. 1 Texas at No. 11 Tennessee (+4.5): Saturday, 12:00 p.m. ET, ABC
Let’s start with the first of four marquee SEC games, and maybe the most intriguing.
Some are calling it “The Manning Bowl,” with Arch Manning going up against his uncle’s alma mater. Others are calling it the battle to determine who the “Real UT” is. A few others are even simply referring to it as “The Orange Bowl.”
It’s Texas vs. Tennessee. And yeahhhhh there’s a LOT at stake. And bluntly, Tennessee getting 4.5 points at home feels like a steal to me.
There are a few reasons why:
Yes, Texas is coming off a thrilling win over Ohio State - they also trailed by 20 going into the fourth quarter at home
This one is on the road, and Knoxville will be insane this weekend
If we’re being honest, Arch Manning really didn’t play too well in the Ohio State game for three quarters
Hollywood Smothers is banged up going into this one
Oh, and Texas wasn’t a good road team last year - they went 2-3 overall, including a loss at a bad Florida team that fired Billy Napier a few weeks later. Their road wins were over a 5-7 Kentucky team and a 5-7 Mississippi State team, and needed overtime in both
It was in Austin, not on the road
They had to overcome a 20-point fourth quarter deficit to win
Arch Manning really didn’t play that well until the fourth quarter
I could go on and on, but bluntly I think Texas still has questions after the Ohio State win a few weeks ago.
And while Tennessee has questions too, at home I believe they do enough to cover. If not win outright.
Oklahoma at No. 2 Georgia (UNDER 44.5): Saturday, 3:30 p.m. ET, ESPN
So just how bad are things going at Oklahoma right now?!
Well, it’s not just that they are two-touchdown underdogs at Georgia, less than a calendar year after making the playoff. It isn’t even that this game - originally slated for ABC - was moved to ESPN. It’s that Brent Venables is calling out his own offensive coordinator publicly. Heck, on the Aaron Torres Pod earlier this week, Trey Wallace said he believes there could be a staff shake-up if things go bad this weekend (Oklahoma heads into a bye before facing Texas in two weeks).
Still, while the offense could be best described as a “trainwreck,” you know what hasn’t let the Sooners down? Venables’ defense.
Like the Michigan game, I expect the defense to step up. Especially against a Georgia team that - let’s be honest - hasn’t exactly been tested early in the season. Heck, it got so bad last week against Arkansas that Kirby Smart had players running drills on the sidelines, because he didn’t think the Bulldogs were getting the necessary work in against the helpless Razorbacks.
In the end, Georgia wins and maybe covers.
But the stronger bet to me is the under.
This game has 20-6 written all over it.
No. 4 Ole Miss at No. 21 Florida (-3.5): Saturday, 3:30 p.m. ET, ABC
So earlier in the week, Jon Sumrall was made aware that the Gators were favored in Vegas coming into this game and asked a simple question: “They’ve got good drugs out there, don’t they?”
While I can neither confirm nor deny if that’s true (if you’re reading Coach Sumrall, I’m more of a “beer by the pool guy” myself whe
Well, I cannot confirm that (I’m more of a beer by the pool guy when I’m in Vegas, myself Coach Sumrall) but I do think the right team is favored here.
First off, it seems possible that Ole Miss star running back Kewan Lacy won’t play this game. An even if he does, won’t be anything close to 100 percent (Lacy is currently listed as “questionable” on the Ole Miss injury report)
And that’s my biggest thing in this game: As great as the Ole Miss win over LSU was, let’s also call it what it was. A game where the Rebels essentially couldn’t run the ball in the second half without Lacy.
Also, as much as it is to root for the Rebels and Pete Golding can we also admit: His defense has been kind of suspect this year. On the year, the Rebels currently 65th in total defense and 98th in pass defense. Even if you want to argue they’ve faced two pretty good offenses (Louisville and LSU), I’d also argue that they haven’t looked particularly sharp for big chunks of all three games.
And if you’re not sharp on defense that’s bad news going up against that Buster Faulkner offense.
Florida wins and covers in a a result that will be shocking to everyone… except you if you’ve read this article.
No. 20 Oregon at No. 12 USC (+3.5): Saturday, 7:30 p.m. ET, NBC
All of the money in this one is coming in on Oregon, so I’m either going to look reallllly smart or really dumb.
But with that said I’ll go ahead and back the Trojans here.
First off, I think a little too much is being made of their ugly win over Rutgers.
Do you wish they could’ve won by a wider margin if you’re a Trojans fan? Of course.
Does it give you concern that this team still hasn’t figured out how to travel to the East Coast with games at Penn State and at Indiana looming. Yeah, I’d say so.
At the same time, there was never really a moment where you felt like USC was actually in danger of losing this game.
In that Rutgers game, they had leads of 10-0, 17-7, 27-14, 35-21 and 42-28.
Yes, on five different instances they extended the lead to double-digits, only for the home team to come back. And even when Rutgers cut it to seven with four minutes left, USC did enough to chew up the clock and get out with a win.
Again, you can argue the game should’ve never been so close. You can also argue there was never really a moment where USC was in danger of losing it.
So I guess I’m just not as worried about the Trojans, especially back at home where they’ve won 10 straight games, including victories over Michigan and Iowa last year.
On the flip side, are we sure that Oregon beating Portland State 84-0 (yes, that was the final score for those who missed it) solved anything for the Ducks?!
This is still a team that gave up 550+ yards at Oklahoma State, had only 281 yards of their own and needed one defensive touchdown and a second near defensive touchdown to even keep things close?!
Oregon was my preseason national title pick.
But I gotta go with what my eyes tell me.
And they tell me the Trojans win.
No. 23 Texas A&M (+8.5) at No. 10 LSU: Saturday, 7:30 p.m. ET, ABC
Back before the season started, ESPN, ABC and Disney slated this as a 7:30 p.m. ET game… betting big that Texas A&M-LSU would be the game of the day.
Well, in some ways it is, as the loser of this game is essentially eliminated from the playoff race.
And while everyone seems to expect an LSU bounce back here, I’m not so sure.
First off, let’s just look at how these two teams have handled losses last week.
Mike Elko went to the podium and said, literally, “Kentucky beat our ass” and took full ownership of the loss.
In fairness, Lane Kiffin did give credit to Ole Miss, but he also spent his mid-week press conference on Wednesday doing everything from complaining about the schedule, to his lack of depth, to pointing out that LSU deserves credit for a comeback and near win.
Hey, I didn’t know LSU was paying Lane Kiffin $90 million for moral victories. But hey, if their fans are ok with that so be it.
Basically, the vibes just feel off for LSU coming into this one.
But I also think the way each team lost its last game gives Texas A&M the edge.
For A&M, they basically got beat in every way a team can, and it happened at home. That whole organization had no choice but to look itself in the mirror and evaluate everything that went wrong.
Meanwhile LSU’s close win allows for what we saw from Kiffin this week: Excuses.
LSU should be favored and may win.
But 8.5 points are too many.
Take the Aggies and the points.
Last week: 2-3
Season: 5-11