WEEK 3 CFB PICKS: LSU-OLE MISS, FLORIDA-AUBURN + MORE!
Credit: Ole Miss athletics
It’s Wednesday and you know what that means, it’s time to make some college football picks!
Last week things were slightly on the uptick from Week 1, as the picks went 2-3 overall.
Not great. Not terrible.
And oh, taking Texas (-1.5) instead of just on the moneyline will go down as one of the all-time dumbest moves (gambling and otherwise) of my life. Seriously, I’ll still be talking about it on my deathbed.
Of course with that said it’s time to move and make some Week 3 picks.
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Now, let’s get to the picks!
North Carolina at Clemson (UNDER 42.5): Saturday, 12:00 p.m. ET, ESPN
Following LSU’s Week 1 destruction of Clemson, it was fair to give LSU all the credit in the world.
It was also fair to acknowledge that Clemson was and is absolutely terrible. It’s not just that they had way less talent than LSU. They can’t even do the basics of football right, like blocking and tackling.
So I bring that up to say that I don’t believe Clemson is good, headed for a 6-6-ish type season and a potential Dabo Swinney departure.
I also believe they may lose outright here… but think the better bet is the under.
Remember, Clemson will be starting a true freshman at quarterback. And this isn’t one of those old-school, Clemson freshman QB’s like Trevor Lawrence or Deshaun Watson. Tait Reynolds was a three-star and the sixth ranked QB… in his own state.
Even if he’s better than the recruiting rankings, I think he might have trouble against a Bill Belichick defense.
On offense, I think Bobby Petrino has his ball plays drawn up, but also think that on the road both Belichick and Petrino go conservative.
Again, I expect UNC to win.
But I like the UNDER of 43.5 much, much more.
Kentucky at No. 9 Texas A&M (-16.5): Saturday, 3:30 p.m. ET, ESPN
Let’s go to the 3:30 p.m. ET window, where I’ll be honest: I’m a little worried about Kentucky here.
Look, we all like Will Stein (he is a friend of the Aaron Torres Pod, after all) but at the same time, that Kentucky offense just did not look good last week. At home they mustered just 209 yards of total offense, under 70 in the second half and went 1 of 14 on third down. Not to mention that a Kentucky defensive touchdown on Alabama’s first offensive possession made the score look even closer than it was.
Which makes me wonder: If it was that ugly at home, how bad could it get in College Station, in what is projected to be sweltering 95+ degree heat at game time?!
Admittedly, Texas A&M didn’t look great on offense last week either (they had two defensive touchdowns in the final quarter to seal the win). But I truly believe that their defense will take control against Kentucky, and then like Texas-Ohio State last week, I believe the Aggies (and the heat) will grind down Kentucky late.
I’m thinking something like a close 17-6 game in the third quarter becomes a 31-6 final, and Texas A&M win.
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No. 16 SMU at No. 24 Louisville (OVER 59.5): Saturday, 3:30 p.m. ET, ESPN2
Given that Miami doesn’t play either of these teams this season (and also given that Clemson and Florida State stink) this actually might be the single biggest game of the ACC season.
If the ACC wants any chance at a second team in the College Football Playoff, it will probably come from the winner of this game.
So who wins?!
Hard to say.
But I do expect a lot of points.
From the SMU perspective, they moved the ball at will against Florida State in their season opener. They finished with just under 600 yards of total offense and if it weren’t for four turnovers the game wouldn’t have even been close.
Then there’s Louisville.
Sure they got off to a slow start against Ole Miss, but since halftime of that game the offense has been absolutely humming. They put up 32 points in the second half against the Rebels, then dropped a cool 59 against Villanova last week.
I’m not sure who wins this one, but my guess is that both teams are able to move the ball against the other’s defense.
Expect points, points and lots of points in this one.
Florida at Auburn (UNDER 52.5): Saturday, 7:00 p.m. ET, ESPN
An old-school SEC rivalry returns to the Plains on Saturday - and we should learn plenty about both teams.
From the Florida perspective, Jon Sumrall has walked in and completely changed the vibes in Gainesville. The Gators are tough. They are physical. And they are fun, averaging 59 points per game in wins over Florida Atlantic. Incredibly, the Gators have hit 50+ points in the first two games of the Jon Sumrall era. They it just twice (the same number) in 55 games of the Billy Napier era.
So yeah, Florida has looked good… but then again are they good, or is the competition (in this case Florida Atlantic + Campbell) just that bad.
On the flip side, I’m still not sure Auburn is good either. At least on the offensive side of the ball. Yes, we all saw the Baylor win. But that was also a game where the Tigers got outgained and needed a tackle on the goal line to seal the win.
So, to be clear: I don’t trust Auburn’s offense. But I’m not sure I trust Florida’s offense to be quite as explosive.
On the flip side, you know what I do trust: Auburn’s defense. They return a bunch of players from a really good group last year, that despite the numbers was actually very good. At one point, they actually played three straight College Football Playoff teams (Oklahoma, Texas A&M, Georgia) and held all of them under 24 points.
Basically, this is a long way of me saying that there is only one unit on this field that I inherently trust: Auburn’s defense.
I believe the Tigers’ defense keeps them in the game, and slows down the Florida offense just enough for the UNDER to hit here.
No. 7 LSU at No. 8 Ole Miss (+2.5): Saturday, 7:30 p.m. ET, ABC
Alright let’s get to the big one.
The Top 10 showdown.
LSU. Ole Miss and the return of Lane Kiffin to Oxford.
Look, at this point you don’t need me to tell you what’s at stake here, and if you want any indication of just how wild things could get Saturday, think about how wild things were this week.
Seriously, just think about the storylines since Monday: Lane Kiffin arguing the “pressure” is on Ole Miss. Security concerns. An LSU star getting served court documents in a parking lot. Sam Leavitt mysteriously showing up on an “injury” report. Interview with Tom Mars. The list goes on and on.
But when these two teams take the field I’m genuinely torn.
On the one hand, LSU has looked amazing in its first two games, dominating Clemson and Louisiana Tech.
On the other, Ole Miss has looked good but not great, surviving Louisville and winning against Charlotte in a game that was closer than anticipated.
So who am I taking: I think I’m going with the Rebels - and to be clear, I don’t feel great about it.
But if I had to take a side, that’s what it is.
First off, this game kind of gives me Oklahoma-Michigan vibes a week ago, where no one really made the argument for Michigan as a slight, home underdog. It’s kind of the same here.
But beyond that, there are a few factors.
First off, Sam Leavitt might actually be hurt. If not, he’s very likely less than 100 percent.
But also, I also think as the season goes on we’ll realize: LSU’s win over Clemson probably wasn’t as great as we made it out to be.
Look, there is no other way to put it: Clemson is not good. Heck, even after the game Kiffin admitted he expected to win comfortably. Maybe not by 41, but win none the less.
So therefore, I’m just not sold LSU is quite as good as they looked and think Ole Miss is probably a bit better than we believe as well.
It isn’t my strongest pick but give me a 27-20 Ole Miss win and cover.
Enjoy the games everyone!
Last week: 2-3
Season: 3-8