Week 2 college football picks: Ohio State-Texas, Oklahoma-Michigan and more
Credit: Texas Athletics
Well everybody, we’re back.
Week 2.
College football.
And it’s time to make some best bets, DARN IT!
So, I’m just going to get real with you: Week 1 was not pretty.
Not pretty at all, as our best bets finished 1-5 overall. Thank goodness I don’t have kids, or they might not be getting any Christmas presents this year.
Anyway, we’re back for Week 2, and as Dabo Swinney said this week: Ask me what my record is at the end of the season, dammit!
Now, let’s get to the picks for a monster Week 2, as we look at Ohio State-Texas, Oklahoma-Michigan, Alabama-Kentucky and more.
Odds are courtesy of FanDuel.
No. 11 Oklahoma at Michigan (UNDER 43.5): Saturday, 12:00 p.m. ET, FOX
Watching Michigan against Western Michigan last week, it really hit: How low would this number have to go, for me to not bet the UNDER?
Like, if it hit 35, would I go under?
What about 30?
Well thankfully, we don’t have to find out, because I’ll gladly grab it at 43.5.
Looking at this game, I’m not even totally sure Kyle Whittingham is trying to win it. Of course he wants to win. But I truly believe his agenda is more “roll Bryce Underwood out there, so he can play so bad that I have a reason to bench him.” And if you’re betting the under, I think Brent Venables and that Oklahoma defense will do just that.
Bluntly, if Michigan breaks 10 points I’d be shocked.
I also believe that the Michigan defense will show up better than it did a week ago, when Western Michigan kinda, sorta pushed them around a little bit.
Final score Oklahoma 24, Michigan 10.
Sooners win. Under hits. And Underwood’s future has never been more in jeopardy.
No. 12 Alabama at Kentucky (+10.5): Saturday, 3:30 p.m. ET, ABC
It’s the SEC opener for not just these two teams, but the league as a whole.
And I believe we get a fun, entertaining, close game in Lexington.
First off, there’s the Alabama side.
Look, I’m not as anti-Alabama as many (I picked them to make the playoff) but let’s also acknowledge: Kalen Deboer has not been great in these games. As good as he is in marquee regular season games (2-0 vs. Georgia, 2-0 vs. LSU) he also has losses at Vanderbilt and at Florida State on his resume. As a matter of fact, I saw a wild stat this week: Deboer is just 2-4 against the spread as Alabama head coach as a road favorite.
Not great.
Beyond that, watching Alabama last week, as dynamic as Keelon Russell was, the run game was, and is, still a work in progress. Outside of Russell’s runs, Alabama had just 141 yards of rush offense for a little over three yards per carry.
That’s not great against East Carolina, and doesn’t feel like it will get better against an SEC defense on the road.
Speaking of the road, it’s just the second start of Russell’s Alabama career and first away from Tuscaloosa. More importantly, as KSR’s Nick Roush and I discussed on the Aaron Torres Podcast today, Kroger Field can ROCK for big home games.
I expect a great crowd and close game.
Alabama wins, but Kentucky covers.
Mississippi State at Minnesota (UNDER 55.5): Saturday, 3:30 p.m. ET, CBS
I know, I know, it seems crazy to take the under on Mississippi State, a team that put up nearly 700 yards of total offense and 62 points last weekend.
But let me explain.
While everyone will focus on how Mississippi State wants to play here, has anyone taken the time to think about Minnesota’s game-plan? They know they can’t score with the Bulldogs and instead, will want to take the air out of the ball, run it as much as possible and keep things as low scoring as they can.
Speaking of which, for fun I looked up some stats from last year: In 11 games against power four competition, guess how many times an over of 55.5 would’ve hit?
Twice.
I don’t know pretty will be, and I don’t know who wins.
But expect a slow, ugly slog.
And an UNDER to hit here.
Louisiana Tech at LSU (-35.5): Saturday, 7:30 p.m. ET, SEC Network
I’m guessing some of you think this is an overreaction to LSU’s win last week over Clemson… but it really isn’t.
I’m also sure some of you think I’m crazy - because isn’t this a classic let down spot for LSU? They are coming off a dominant win over Clemson, and travel to Ole Miss next weekend.
Honestly, I really don’t see either of those things.
Instead, what I see is a coach in Lane Kiffin that, in general, destroys out of conference, Group of 5 and FCS opponents.
In the last two years, here are the scores of Group of 5 and FCS opponents facing Kiffin (who at the time was of course at Ole Miss):
2025:
Georgia State - 63-7
Tulane - 45-7 (and remember, Tulane made the playoff last season)
Washington State - 24-21
The Citadel - 49-0
2024:
Furman - 76-0
Middle Tennessee State - 52-3
Georgia Southern - 52-13
Transparently, I don’t know what happened in that Washington State game last year, but it doesn’t really matter.
In the six other games over two years, Lane Kiffin’s squad easily covered a 35.5 point spread, including against a G5 playoff team last year.
I respect Louisiana Tech who is a good G5 team, and just put 80 points (yes, 80!) in their season opener.
But LSU by 40+.
No. 1 Ohio State at No. 4 Texas (-1.5): Saturday, 7:30 p.m. ET, ABC
There’s no other way to put it, this is not only the biggest game of the weekend, but arguably the biggest game of the year:
Ohio State. Texas.
Top 5 showdown.
Arch Manning. Jeremiah Smith. Julian Sayin. Cam Coleman. Ryan Day. Steve Sarkisian.
So, who ya got?
Well first off, I think it’s fair to say there’s probably more pressure on Steve Sarkisian in this one. Not only is the game in Austin, but in a truly wild stat, Sark is a combined 0-7 against Ryan Day, Kalen Deboer and Kirby Smart in his career.
That’s not to say that he hasn’t won big games.
But against his elite contemporaries, he just hasn’t won the games that matter.
Fortunately for Sark, I think Saturday night is the night.
First off, I’ve got to say: As someone who has been a critic of Arch Manning, he actually looked really good last week. Not only did he complete 21 of 27 passes with four touchdowns, but he also spread the ball around to all his weapons. Cam Coleman, Ryan Wingo, Hollywood Smothers and Raleek Brown all showed flashes.
As for Ohio State, I like this group. I do.
But I guess my question is this: If you can shut down Jeremiah Smith - which Texas did do in the playoff two years ago, by the way - who do they have that can beat you? The run game got off to a slow start on Saturday against Ball State (to the point that they had to bench one of their starting tackles) and their WR2 (Devin McCuin) was at UTSA last year.
In the end, this isn’t a dig at Ohio State.
They’re an elite, Top 5 team and legit national title contender.
But so is Texas.
Longhorns win 24-17 in Austin.
Last week: 1-5
Season: 1-5