Week 1 college football picks: Clemson-LSU, Ole Miss-Louisville + more!
Via Ole Miss athletics
Well folks, we made it: After nine long, exhausting, months college football is back! And it’s time to make our Week 1 picks.
By now, you know the drill on these picks: We look at all the biggest games and give our unfiltered thoughts on best bets for all of them. As always remember, we only pick games I’m actually ready to wager on. And because of it, all the biggest games aren’t all listed here (we try to drop a few thoughts on the big “stay aways” below).
Also, we’re going to start slow with just six picks in Week 1. In this world of crazy roster turnover, why force it on a bunch of teams, with a bunch of players we aren’t sure of? Rather than going with what we’re most confident in.
With that said it’s time to stop wasting time and get to the picks, with all odds via DraftKings.
Colorado at Georgia Tech (OVER 51.5): Thursday, 8:00 p.m. ET, ESPN
What better way to start this year’s picks than with the only P4 on P4 matchup on Thursday in college football, as Colorado travels to Georgia Tech.
And boy, oh boy, do I expect some points here.
From the Colorado perspective, look, there’s no doubt that the Deion Sanders experiment has lost some juice in the last 12 months.
It’s also worth noting that he coached last year while battling cancer and enters this year in a much better place health-wise in 2025. The fact that he even coached at all last year is a minor miracle.
Beyond that, he also brings in Brennan Marion to run the “go-go” offense, a system designed essentially for the personnel that Colorado has. The Buffaloes will never have the elite linemen to run the ball in the trenches, but they have a former five-star at quarterback in Julian Lewis and once again should have a loaded receiver room. It also will help on Thursday specifically, that they are going up against a Georgia Tech defense that will have its fourth defensive coordinator in four years.
On the other side, Georgia Tech will go against a Colorado defense with its own new coordinator after finishing 121st in the country in total defense.
The Yellow Jackets will be led by Alberto Mendoza at QB and remember, Alabama and Michigan transfer Justice Haynes is in at running back.
The Yellow Jackets should have no problem scoring points, win this game somewhere in the 34-24 range and the OVER hitting easily.
Furman at No. 20 Tennessee (-46.5): Saturday, 3:30 p.m. ET, SEC Network
Let’s get to Saturday where I love the slate, but only like the point spreads.
So rather than jumping into a bunch of marquee games, let’s go instead to one that isn’t getting as much attention: Furman at Tennessee. And while I generally hate betting big numbers, I actually like the spot here.
First off, Josh Heupel isn’t afraid to put up big numbers against bad teams. Tennessee scored 72 against East Tennessee last year and 69 and 71 against Chattanooga and Kent State respectively in 2024.
So expect Heupel to showcase QB Faizon Brandon early, and even if the game gets out of hand, I don’t really expect the offense to slow down. Back-up George MacIntyre needs reps, after all.
Then there’s the defense, which has not only been maligned, but has kind of turned into a punching bag the last year or so.
In the first game of the Jim Knowles era you don’t think they’ll be motivated to play their best and potentially pitch a shut out against Furman?!
I could go on and on, but here’s theme of this write-up: Tennessee a lot, Furman a little.
The Vols roll to a 50+ point win.
Baylor vs. Auburn (-7.5) (Mercedes-Benz Stadium, Atlanta, GA): Saturday, 3:30 p.m. ET, ABC
Given that I lost the equivlent of the the GDP of Botswana betting on Auburn last year (I guess that’s what you get for believing in Hugh Freeze and Jackson Arnold), I’m a little hesitant here.
But screw it. New season, new AT right?!
I sure hope so.
Look, for all of the ick that was the offense last year, it is worth noting that the defense was very good in 2025. The stats don’t blow you away, but that’s mainly because the offense was so bad the defense was on the field way more than it should’ve been. Crazy stat, but the Tigers played three eventual playoff teams in a row at one point last year (at Oklahoma, at Texas A&M, Georgia) and held them to 24, 16 and 20 points respectively.
Eventually, a brutal schedule and their defensive coordinator becoming the interim head coach wore the Tigers defense down. But they were elite early.
Which brings us to this year, and remember, DJ Durkin is back to coach the defense. He brings back a ton of key pieces including All-SEC freak Xavier Atkins at linebacker.
Then on offense, Alex Golesh is largely picking up right where he left off with Byrum Brown and an offense that ranked in the Top 10 last year in most major categories.
Once we get to SEC play I think you could argue that this offense will be tested against tougher competition, but I’m just not sure it will be against a Baylor team that gave up almost 400 yards a game last season.
Auburn 34, Baylor 21.
Clemson at No. 11 LSU (UNDER 50.5): Saturday, 7:30 p.m. ET, ABC
It’s the biggest game of the weekend, and the center of a culture war between old-school Dabo Swinney and extremelyyyyyyyyyyyy new school Lane Kiffin.
So who has the edge? Well, it’s obviously LSU.
But despite LSU having the coaching, talent and home field advantage I do think this is a relatively low-scoring game.
(And not, it’s not because LSU will be “distracted” after this crazy week. As someone who bet an ungodly amount of money on Mississippi State in last year’s Egg Bowl because Lane Kiffin was a “distraction” at Ole Miss, I learned my lesson there)
Instead, it’s simply the matchup.
On one side you have Clemson playing a new quarterback, making his first career start in, oh, I don’t know… the toughest environment in all of college football. Not to mention that when Kiffin got to LSU he retained defensive coordinator Blake Baker. A lot of LSU’s starters are back for another year in the same system, a system that helped LSU finish Top 25 in the country on defense a season ago.
Then there’s LSU on offense, and while I expect fireworks eventually I’m just not sure this is the weekend.
Clemson still has some talent on defense (even after losing multiple early round picks) and I’m just not sure I trust Sam Leavitt to move the ball up and down the field all night. Remember, Leavitt was injured last year and missed spring ball with a foot injury.
Again, Kiffin’s offense will have plenty of fireworks.
I’m just not sure they’re on Saturday night.
LSU wins, in an otherwise low-scoring game.
Wisconsin (+20.5) vs. No. 4 Notre Dame (Lambeau Field, Green Bay, WI): Sunday, 7:30 p.m. ET, NBC
Like everyone else who covers college football, I LOVE Notre Dame this season.
Which is what makes this pick so surprising: I’m actually going to take Wisconsin and the points here.
Look, I know the Luke Fickell era has been a disaster. But it is worth noting that they had a Top 25 defense last year and most of their struggles came thanks to a complete inability to move the ball on offense (it probably didn’t help that their QB had a season-ending injury the first game of the season). Well the defense should still be good, and I do think that transfer QB Colton Joseph moves the ball enough to get some points on the board.
Beyond that, it’s also worth noting that as much as everyone loves Marcus Freeman - and yes, I include myself - he has gotten off to slow starts as coach at Notre Dame. In a wild stat, he is just 3-5 overall in Games 1 and 2 of the season. Now if you want to argue he played great competition last year (at Miami, Texas A&M) that’s fine. But there are also losses to Marshall and Northern Illinois mixed in as well.
In the end, I like Notre Dame and don’t think that this game will be any indictment on what kind of season they can have (well, unless they lose. Which they won’t).
But I do expect a hard fought 27-14 Notre Dame win and Wisconsin cover to open things up at Lambeau Field.
No. 24 Louisville vs. No. 9 Ole Miss (-7) (Nissan Stadium, Nashville, TN): Sunday, 7:30 p.m. ET, ABC
It’s the second of two super intriguing Sunday night games, and how about this: The only Top 25 matchup of Week 1.
Yes, I’m talking Louisville and Ole Miss.
And when I look at this game, it’s interesting: Jeff Brohm is kind of the opposite of what I said about Marcus Freeman above. Brohm is 12-1 in September games, but just 16-11 after October 1st.
So you’ve got to take the Cards, right?!
I just can’t do it.
And it’s not because I don’t believe in Louisville big picture.
But at the same time, Louisville QB Lincoln Kienholz will be making his first start in college football on Sunday night. And while I understand he spent three years at Ohio State, I also do think it’s tough to ask him to come out this game guns blazing, especially against what might be the best defense he plays all year.
On the flip side, Louisville has some DUDES on defense as well.
My question is, can they hold up against the fast tempo and fast attack of an Ole Miss offense that doesn’t just feature Trinidad Chambliss but also 1,000 yard rusher Kewan Lacey as well.
This game feels like one that’s close for three quarters before Ole Miss pulls away.
Ole Miss wins 35-21 and a Week 1 cover.
Stay aways:
No. 7 Miami (-24.5) at Stanford, Friday, 10:30 p.m. ET, ESPN: I very much considered taking Miami and the points here, given that the defense will again be elite and the offense should be even better with Darian Mensah at QB. My issue of course, is that it’s tough to ask anyone to open the season by flying across country and playing a 10:30 ET kick. I can talk myself into Miami eventually covering, but think it’s just best to stay away for now.
No. 20 SMU (-3) at Florida State, Monday, 7:30 p.m. ET, ESPN: On the one hand, I watched Florida State last week and don’t know how ANYONE could comfortably bet there. On the other side, EVERYONE and their mother (hi mom!) is on SMU to cover the points on the road Monday night. I’d lean SMU, but wouldn’t it be peak college football for Florida State to look abysmal against New Mexico State and come out and win by two touchdowns against SMU?
I’m staying away from this one and will instead enjoy from the couch.
Enjoy the college football everyone!