Week 13 College football picks (presented by Circa sportsbook)
Credit: Aaron Torres
It’s Thursday and you know what that means: It’s time to make some college football best bets - and man oh man, what a week it’s going to be.
Sure, on paper some would say it’s a slow week.
Most in the SEC are on their “pre-Thanksgiving cupcake tour” with Alabama playing Eastern Illinois and Georgia facing Charlotte. Heck, the only opponent Ole Miss is facing on their bye is opposing schools trying to poach their coach.
Then again, aren’t these the weekends that we live for? Especially in the 12-team playoff era? I mean, just when it feels like we know how everything is going to go, that’s when the craziness happens. And there’s no reason that it can’t in matchups like USC-Oregon, Missouri-Oklahoma or others this weekend.
So with that, let’s get to our Week 13 picks.
As always, our point spreads are provided by our friends at Circa Sportsbook, which has just opened up a brand new sportsbook at Mint Kentucky Downs in beautiful Franklin, Kentucky. Located just 40 minutes from Nashville, it is THE place to watch your favorite team every Saturday and Sunday if you live in Tennessee, Kentucky, Indiana or anywhere nearby.
Now, here are our Week 13 best bets.
No. 22 Missouri (+9) at No. 8 Oklahoma - Saturday, 12:00 p.m. ET, ABC
Let’s start by going to an old-school Big 8 rivalry, a matchup that you could set your clock to in the ‘80’s, ‘90’s and early 2000’s: Oklahoma and Missouri.
At this point we know what’s at stake: If Oklahoma wins out they’re in the playoff. Missouri at this point is playing for nothing but pride and to play spoiler, all while hoping to keep their head coach long-term as well.
So, this all leads to an easy Oklahoma blowout, right?
I’m not sure I see it. Actually, it’s the opposite: Missouri (+9) isn’t just one of my favorite bets of the weekend, but of the season.
First off, it’s just a tough spot for Oklahoma. They are coming off back-to-back emotional road wins, against Top 15 (at the time) teams. Yes, they are coming home on Saturday. But it’s also an 11 a.m. local time kick, in a game that everyone - including the folks at Circa Sportsbook - expect them to win.
If this doesn’t have “sluggish start” written all over it, I don’t know what does.
And the thing is, Oklahoma simply isn’t good enough offensively to get off to a slow start. And the stats back it up.
While the Sooners are 8-2 and their defense is insane, the offense umm… leaves a little bit to be desired. And because the offense isn’t elite, it makes it almost impossible for the Sooners to put away good opponents. As a matter of fact, in OU’s seven power conference games to this point (Michigan + six SEC games) they have a grand total of one win by more than nine points. That came at home against South Carolina. Meanwhile, there was a seven-point him win against a hapless Auburn offense and in each of the last two games, a defensive touchdown has spurred them to victory.
Then there’s Missouri and look, I’m not saying they’re some juggernaut, but they’re kind of the opposite of Oklahoma.
They come in at 7-3 overall and while they did get blown out by Texas A&M, their two other losses were by three to Alabama and seven to Vanderbilt, in a game which they were one yard short of tying at the end of regulation.
Frankly, I don’t think much separates these two teams, and certainly not nine points.
Take Missouri to win and cover.
Arkansas at No. 17 Texas (OVER 56.5) - Saturday, 3:30 p.m. ET, ABC
Listen, I’m not going to spend too much time here, but just know this: Arkansas is going to score points. They’re going to give up points. And they’re going to keep things close… and then probably find a way to lose in the most crippling manner possible.
The results back it up, as they’re both averaging 34 points per game on offense, all while ranking dead last in scoring defense in the SEC. They are also dead last in turnover margin of all power conference teams, giving away the ball at the worst possible times - all while basically never taking it away from the other team.
As for the “close” part - well, the track record is actually staggering at this point.
In the end, I expect Arkansas to keep things close, because well, that’s just what they do.
Unfortunately, they’ll have a fourth quarter meltdown and lose something crazy like 40-34 with the over hitting with ease.
No. 15 USC (+9.5) at No. 7 Oregon - Saturday, 3:30 p.m. ET, CBS
It’s time to get to the big one, and a simple question for everyone: So, umm, are we sure Oregon is good?!
It’s funny because when the new playoff rankings came out, it felt like everyone was focused on Notre Dame’s positioning. How could they be ranked ahead of Alabama, Miami (who they’ve obviously lost to) or even BYU?!
Yet no one was asking: What has Oregon done exactly to be ranked No. 7 in the country?
They beat a Penn State team that we thought was good at the time (and has since taken losses to Northwestern and UCLA), haven’t played Ohio State and Michigan and lost to Indiana. So their best win is…. a come-from-behind rally at Iowa?! That’s their resume?
Frankly, there isn’t much there.
Meanwhile, USC certainly isn’t the vintage, Pete Carroll in the ‘00’s Trojans. But they just beat the same Iowa squad that Oregon did, took down Nebraska on the road and toppled Michigan earlier in the year. They also played Notre Dame tough on the road and easily could’ve (and maybe should’ve) beaten Illinois in a game where they were ahead in the final minute.
In the end, I don’t know if USC quite has the bodies to win this game outright - although I think it’s possible.
What I do know is that nearly 10 points is way too many against an Oregon team that still has a lot to prove. Even 13 weeks into the season.
Kentucky (+9.5) at No. 14 Vanderbilt - Saturday, 3:30 p.m. ET, ESPN
Let’s stay in the afternoon slate, and let me give credit where it’s due: I’d say that I’ve been as big of a public critic as anyone of Kentucky head coach Mark Stoops. I thought he wasn’t built for the NIL era, that his players had quit on him and that it was time to pack his bags.
Then, a funny thing happened: After going two full calendar years with one total SEC win, Kentucky ripped off back-to-back league victories over Auburn and Florida. Add in a win over Tennessee Tech and they’re riding a three-game win streak into this one.
And I think they do enough to win and maybe cover here.
One, I’m still not sold that Vanderbilt is all that dynamic offensively. I know that Diego Pavia has been excellent through the air the last two games. But the Commodores are still a team that wants to beat you on the ground. And to the credit of Kentucky, they have been solid against the run, ranking 40th nationally in that category.
Then there’s the all-of-a-sudden dynamic Kentucky offense, led by Cutter Boley. The Kentucky native has quietly (at least quietly on a national scale) been excellent since taking the reigns of the offense, completing nearly 70 percent of his passes with 13 touchdowns this year. And again, he didn’t become the full-time starter until the middle of October.
After watching Mark Stoops’ teams for years it’s weird to say this, but I trust Kentucky to do enough offensively to stay in this game - and potentially win outright.
The 9.5 points is way to many. Take the Cats to cover and potentially win.
No. 18 Michigan at Maryland (+13.5) - Saturday, 4:00 p.m. ET, Big Ten
Finally, let’s wrap in the Big Ten and let’s give credit where it’s due: No coach wins more close games, in a manner that gives his fan-base zero confidence that he is the answer long-term, more than Sherrone Moore does.
He really is the Nick Saban of winning a bunch of games that inspire no one.
And last Saturday may have been his Mona Lisa, where at Wrigley Field, Michigan overcame five turnovers and a late fourth quarter deficit to beat Northwestern on a field goal as time expired. This came just a week after they beat Purdue by five.
So ultimately, I’m just not sure that I trust the Wolverines to cover the two scores here. Especially against a Maryland team that forces a crap ton of turnovers (they’re actually second in the Big Ten in turnovers forced, behind only Indiana) and should be motivated after finding out that their head coach Mike Locksley will be coming back next year.
Michigan may win, to set up a “win and you’re playing for a potential trip to the playoff against Ohio State.”
But it’s going to be ugly. And the Terps will cover.
Enjoy your Saturday of college football, everyone!
Last Week: 2-4
Overall: 34-35-1