Week 11 College football best bets (presented by circa sportsbook)
It’s Thursday and you know what that means, it’s time to make some Week 11 college football picks.
And quick question: Does anyone else besides me feel like things are about to get weird this weekend?
Just looking at the schedule, it has “crap is about to hit the fan vibes” all over the country. Georgia’s got a tough trip to Mississippi State. Oregon’s got a tough trip to Iowa. Alabama could be facing a finally motivated LSU team, playing for a coach they actually like. And it’s a similar deal with Auburn.
So let’s get to the picks.
As always, our point spreads are provided by our friends at Circa Sportsbook, which has just opened up a brand new sportsbook at Mint Kentucky Downs in beautiful Franklin, Kentucky. Located just 40 minutes from Nashville, it is THE place to watch your favorite team every Saturday and Sunday if you live in Tennessee, Kentucky, Indiana or anywhere nearby.
So thank you to Circa Sportsbook and thank you for your point spreads.
Now, let’s get to the Week 10 picks!
No. 6 Georgia at Mississippi State (+8.5): Saturday, 12:00 p.m. ET, ESPN
Let’s start with the early, noon ET, 11 a.m. CT start in Starkville and honestly, and if this doesn’t give off those “Week 11, it’s officially November, let’s get weird” vibes, I don’t know what would.
First, you have the 11 a.m. local time kick.
Then you have the 11 a.m. local time, with 61,000 cowbell swinging Bulldog fans at Davis-Wade Stadium, with Mississippi State coming off a win and Georgia in a potential look-ahead spot with a game against Texas next week.
Then you have the fact that Georgia has played with fire all year long and easily could have another loss or two on their schedule. The Bulldogs fell down 21-7 against Tennessee… and somehow won. They trailed Ole Miss by nine in the second half… and won. They fell down 10-0 against Auburn (let’s not talk about the goal line weirdness)… and won. At some point all these slow starts have to catch up with them, right?
Especially against a Mississippi State squad that finally broke through with an SEC win last week against Arkansas. And also a Mississippi State team that went to overtime against Tennessee and Texas at home and could’ve easily won both of those games.
Honestly, I think Mississippi State could win outright and throw chaos into the SEC playoff picture.
But let’s take the more than a touchdown they’re getting at home, and a Bulldogs cover.
No. 8 BYU at No. 9 Texas Tech (-10): Saturday, 12:00 p.m. ET, ABC
Next up, let’s go out to Lubbock and… dare I say the biggest Big 12 game of the post-Texas/Oklahoma world?
It feels that way, as we have a Top 10 showdown between BYU and Texas Tech. And who knows, with the way things are shaping up, this could be a preview of the Big 12 title game. Maybe even a matchup of two future playoff teams?
And yes, I can see Brett Yormark viciously fanning himself now just thinking of the possibility.
Unfortunately for those expecting a close, competitive game, I just don’t see it.
First off, not only is Texas Tech good; they’re a damn juggernaut when quarterback Behren Morton is in the lineup. They are 7-0 in games their starting QB plays, averaging 46 points per game in the process. The only game that he didn’t play at all was Arizona State, in which the Red Raiders put up 22 points in a loss.
Beyond that, stylistically this is just a disaster of a matchup for BYU.
To the Cougs credit, they’re a team you simply can’t kill. In their three Big 12 road games this season they’ve trailed by double-digits in all three. And again, to their credit, came back and won all three.
That’s an incredible accomplishment, but here is the concern: BYU is at its best with a run-heavy offense and they are facing, quite literally, the No. 1 run defense in college football.
Meaning that if they do fall down by the 10, 14 or 17 points they have in the past - will they be able to mount a comeback if they can’t run the ball? Especially with a true freshman at quarterback?
I just can’t see it happening.
Ultimately, I believe BYU is an excellent team and deserving of this ranking.
I also believe this is a terrible matchup in a terrible venue.
Texas Tech 28, BYU 10
No. 9 Oregon at No. 20 Iowa (UNDER 42)
This total opened at 44.5 and has been trickling down all week… and transparently I still think the under is the right play.
First off, Iowa has to be the wildest team in college football. After years of dominating defenses, at first glance it looks like they’re in the midst of an offensive revolution in the last few weeks. Back in Week 8 they put up 37 points at Wisconsin and two weeks ago put up 41 against Minnesota. Then you dive deeper into those box scores and you realize that the 41 points they got against Minnesota came on 274 yards of total offense (they had a pick six and punt return in the win) and that they barely broke 300 yards of total offense against Wisconsin.
Oh, did I mention they also rank 132nd in pass offense, good for last among Power 4 teams?
And that despite all that, they’re still 6-2 on the season.
Only freakin’ Iowa.
So no, the offense hasn’t suddenly “figured things out” and they’re going to against an Oregon defense that ranks in the Top 25 nationally in virtually every defensive category. Conversely, they rank in the Top 10 in basically every noteworthy category and I just find it hard to believe that Oregon will have much success moving the ball themselves.
Frankly, I think Oregon could be in line to get upset outright.
But I’ll be stunned if either team breaks 24 or even 21 for that matter.
Take the UNDER - and get it at 42 while you still can.
Auburn (+6.5) at No. 16 Vanderbilt: Saturday, 4:00 p.m. ET, SEC Network
It’s the first game of the post Hugh Freeze era and it’s clear in listening to the players that they’re…. relieved that he’s gone?
Maybe that’s unfair, but what is clear is everyone seems to be fired up that DJ Durkin is now in charge from fans to players.
When you have the back-up QB Deuce Knight excited that the offensive coach is out and the defensive coordinator is replacing him, you know this move was probably long overdue.
If anything, I think they’re more inspired to play for DJ Durkin and transparently I think is a game Auburn wins outright.
The Auburn defense has absolutely been elite this year, probably better than many realize when you consider how much they’re on the field. Now they’re going up against a one-dimensional Vanderbilt offense which loves to run the ball, but really hasn’t found a consistent passing attack all season.
(And yes I know the pass numbers looked good against Texas last week, but most of their yards came when Texas up big and in prevent defense)
Put simply, I think this will be one of Vanderbilt’s toughest tests offensively and when Auburn has the ball, well, they can’t look worse than they’ve been right?
It feels like a cloud has been lifted over the Auburn program. And they win Saturday in Nashville to knock the Commodores out of the playoff picture.
Florida at Kentucky (OVER 45.5): Saturday, 7:30 p.m. ET, SEC Network
Don’t last week’s game against Auburn fool you, Kentucky’s defense isn’t very good. The fact that they only gave up three points was much more a byproduct of the Auburn offense being an embarrassment than any fundamental improvements on the UK defense.
Conversely, don’t let last week’s game against Auburn fool you: Kentucky’s offense is better than you realize. The fact that they only scored 10 points was more a byproduct of the Auburn defense being elite than any fundamental flaws on a much improved unit, led by a very talented young quarterback in Cuter Boley.
At home, in the final SEC home game of the season, the offense does enough to push the point total over. The question is, can the defense do enough to get a win?!
I’ll say the score is 31-28 one way or the other, and the OVER is hte safest bet.
Nebraska at UCLA (PK): Saturday, 9:00 p.m. ET, FOX
Sometimes, luck just doesn’t break your way and that feels like the situation with Nebraska here.
A week ago, the Cornhuskers were at home, at 6-2 and a win over USC very much put them into the playoff picture entering the home stretch of the season. They had the lead, then they lost Dylan Raiola to injury, then they lost the lead, the game and Raiola for the season.
Now they have to fly across country and face UCLA off a bye, at night, in a late start.
UCLA wins and covers.
Last Week: 3-3
Overall: 32-31-1