College Football Playoff opening round best bets (Presented by circa sportsbook)

Well, it’s Friday, it’s mid-December and you know what that means: For the second year in a row (and just the second time ever) it’s time to make some opening round College Football Playoff best bets!

That’s right, with the regular season now done we turn our attention the 12-team field. And for all the angst about who got in, who didn’t, who opted out of bowl games (shout out whiny Notre Dame), the bottom line is that we still have 12 teams vying for a title and four great games this weekend.

As always, our point spreads are provided by our friends at Circa Sportsbook, which has just opened up a brand new sportsbook at Mint Kentucky Downs in beautiful Franklin, Kentucky. I was actually at the Mint last week, and it’s a beautiful set-up less than 40 minutes from Nashville right on the Kentucky-Tennessee border. If you’re looking for a place to watch the games this weekend and are in the area, I cannot recommend it enough.

Now, let’s not waste any more time and get to the picks!

No. 9 Alabama (-1) at Oklahoma: Friday, 8:00 p.m. ET, ABC

So yes, yes, I know: These teams already played this year.

And Oklahoma won in Tuscaloosa.

So they have to be the pick here, right?

I’m not so sure, and really I have kind of (what I think is) an interesting take coming into this game: How you feel about this game really just depends on how you view the last time these two teams played.

If you look back on that game and say “Oklahoma beat this same team in Tuscaloosa a month ago, there is zero percent chance they’re losing at home” well, honestly I totally get.

Conversely, I look at it this way: Alabama was probably the better team. They had nearly 200 more yards of offense (408 compared to 212) and basically gifted Oklahoma 14 points. OU had a pick-six and also a short field score after a strip on a kick-off.

And yet despite all that, despite basically giving Oklahoma two scores, Alabama had the ball with a chance to win late. One more first down probably gets them in field goal range and a chance to win.

So while the stage has changed (from Bryant-Denny to Norman) I think you can absolutely argue Alabama was the better team in the first game.

And they’ll be the better team in the second game.

Final score, Alabama 20, Oklahoma 17 - as the Tide advance to the Rose Bowl.

No. 10 Miami at No. 7 Texas A&M (UNDER 51): Saturday, 12:00 p.m. ET, ABC

Looking at this game, you know what’s wild: How similar these two teams are.

Specifically, along the offensive line.

Both teams are Top 20 nationally in total sacks, and elite at getting after the quarterback. Yet both are also elite at protecting the passer, each ranking in the Top 15 nationally in fewest sacks allowed.

So when both teams defenses are built on disruption and both teams are also built to protect their signal-callers, I expect a low-scoring game.

I actually think Miami can go into Kyle Field and get the win (Carson Beck has quietly been excellent the last few weeks with 11 TD’s, 2 INT’s and a 79 percent completion percentage during their four-game win streak.

But instead, I’ll just take the UNDER, and say we get a final score somewhere in the neighborhood of 24-20 and an easy UNDER here.

No. 11 Tulane (+17) at Ole Miss: Saturday, 3:30 p.m. ET, TNT

Let’s head to the two evening games, where I expect one to be competitive and one not to be.

This is the one that I could absolutely see being close.

One, these two teams played each other earlier in the season. And while it was a one-sided 45-10 Rebels win, a lot has changed since then.

First off, umm, you probably heard, but Lane Kiffin is no longer on the sidelines. Even if Charlie Weis Jr. and the offensive staff has been back in Oxford preparing for this game, it’s just hard to imagine this offense running as smoothly without Kiffin on the headset as it was with him.

Two, let’s also remember that the last time these two teams played, it was just Trinidad Chambliss’ second career start. There wasn’t much film on him and that was largely his breakout game, throwing for over 300 yards and rushing for another 112.

It’s worth noting that Chambliss has not rushed for even half of that total in any game since, and fair to say that Tulane wasn’t quite ready for what he could do with his legs.

Well fast-forward there will be no surprises.

And while I ultimately believe Ole Miss will get the win, I also expect this one to be closer than many expect.

Final score Ole Miss 31, Tulane 20 as the Green Wave cover in Oxford.

No. 12 James Madison at No. 5 Oregon (-21): Saturday, 7:30 p.m. ET, TNT

You know what game I don’t expect to be close? The nightcap, Oregon and James Madison.

Look, this isn’t a “G5 teams suck and don’t belong in the playoff” rant (just see what I said about Tulane above).

But I do think this is a particularly bad matchup for the Dukes.

That’s because when you dig into James Madison, you realize they are pretty one-dimensional on offense, with a Top 10 run game… and 94th ranked passing attack.

I could give you a million more stats and figures, but the bottom line is that you simply can’t be one-dimensional against this Oregon team. Especially considering how good they are against the run.

Conversely, when Oregon has the ball, I believe they will largely be able to run the ball right at James Madison. Yes, I know JMU has a Top 10 run defense, but Oregon has faced, by my count, five Top 35 rush offenses this season and - outside Indiana - was able to run on all of them.

James Madison is a great story, and based on dumb ACC tiebreaks, deserves this moment.

Unfortunately, JMU’s “moment” will end quickly with a 42-10 Oregon win.