Week 4 College Football Betting Picks: Florida-Miami, Michigan-Nebraska + more
Sponsored by Circa Sports
Well folks, it's Wednesday and you know what that means: It's time to make some Week 3 College Football Picks!
And it's time to continue to stay, well, not terrible.
I'll admit, this season hasn't gotten off to the start I wanted, but we are slowly hitting our stride. Last week we grinding out a 3-3 week against the spread and are now 6-5 in the last two weeks.
Not where we want to be, but things could be much worse as well.
The good news, I feel REALLY good about these picks heading into Week 4.
So, let's go ahead and talk some ball!
Before we do of course, a quick reminder that all these picks are presented by our partners at Circa Sportsbook. Circa of course has the biggest sportsbook on planet Earth in Las Vegas (see that beautiful picture above), but have also built a brand new, replica down in Franklin, Kentucky at Mint Kentucky Downs. If you live in the area (the casino is just 45 minutes from downtown Nashville) be sure to check it out!
Speaking of "check it out" a reminder - our "College Football Betting Pod" drops every Thursday morning, sharing my best picks in audio form. Hate to brag but I really do think it's the best college football preview content you'll find anywhere, and is now available on Apple, Spotify or YouTube. Yes, we're on YouTube, baby!
Alright, enough riff raff, let's get to the Week 4 picks - presented by Circa Casino and Sportsbook!
No. 22 Auburn at No. 11 Oklahoma (-6.5): Saturday, 3:30 p.m. ET, ABC
Since there really isn't all that much that intrigues me about the early slate, let's jump right into the 3:30 p.m. ET slate.
And one of the most intriguing games on the board: Auburn at Oklahoma.
What's crazy about this game is, we all know the narratives coming into this season on these teams - and we also know where they are now. Each had a disappointing 2024 season, but each is now 3-0 with a signature win apiece. Oklahoma of course beat Michigan at home, while Auburn won on the road at Baylor.
And frankly, those games showed me signs of where this game could be headed.
From the Auburn perspective, there were positives and negatives from that Baylor win. The positive is of course, Jackson Arnold is a functional college quarterback and he can win you a lot of games. At the same time, the pass defense wasn't great - not really Auburn's fault, Sawyer Robertson just might be THAT good - and Arnold still hasn't totally proven he can beat you with his arm yet either.
Therefore, I can't lie: That sounds like a terrible combination of "weaknesses" for a team to have heading into a game against Oklahoma. To the credit of the Sooners, their defense is again elite and as they proved against Michigan, you can't be one-dimensional against them. Until further notice, that's kind of what Auburn's offense has been.
Then when Auburn's defense is on the field, being able to stop the pass is imperative. Mateer is maybe your Heisman favorite and currently completing 67 percent of his passes with six touchdowns. Not great for again, an Auburn defense that struggled to stop the pass against Baylor.
Sometimes "styles make fights" and it feels like the style here favors the Sooners.
Kent State at Florida State (OVER 56): Saturday, 3:30 p.m. ET, ACC Network
This game actually opened at Florida State -39.5 and has been bet all the way up to 46.5 at CIrca. So, instead of getting a terrible number on Florida State and the spread, let's instead take the OVER.
The bottom line is that Florida State is going to score a LOT of points here. Besides the fact that they are averaging a cool 54 a game, it's also worth noting that Kent State hasn't really shown an ability to stop the run this season. And when I say "haven't really shown an ability" what I really mean is, they have one of the worst run defenses in college football. Like, they currently rank up 120th nationally and give up around five yards per carry.
Ultimately, I do worry about Florida State pulling its starters and Kent State hitting a back-door cover. But off a bye, I expect the Seminoles to come out firing, put up a bunch of points and for the OVER to hit here.
North Carolina at UCF (UNDER 47.5): Saturday, 3:30 p.m. ET, FOX
You know how I just said to expect points, points and more points in the Kent State-Florida State game?!
Yeah, this game is like that. Only the exact opposite.
First off, let me defend Bill Belichick here. Yes, the Tar Heels' opener was ugly, but there is also a very good chance that TCU will be the best offense they face all season long. While UNC has "only" faced Charlotte and Richmond since, they've also given up a combined nine points in those two games.
The defense has already gotten better in the last two weeks and I do believe it will only get better going forward. Belichick hasn't forgotten to coach that side of the ball, after all.
The issue is the offense, which is looking very, umm, "Belichick in New England post-Brady-ish" if you know what I mean. On the season, UNC is currently 127th in total offense, worst among all Power 4 teams.
Add it up and it just feels like the UNDER is the side here. Frankly, it might be for every UNC game this year. UCF is fine, but hardly elite offensively. And I'm not even sure UNC is trying to score points at this moment in time.
This number opened at 49 and is already down to 47.5. Grab it before it goes down any further.
No. 21 Michigan at Nebraska (OVER 45.5): Saturday, 3:30 p.m. ET, CBS
First off, this is an incredible "helmet game" and amazing matchup between two programs that are on the right trajectory in the Big Ten. We know about Michigan, but I also believe in a 12-team playoff era, Matt Rhule will have the Huskers in the College Football Playoff sooner rather than later (or in the case of the last 20 years of Nebraska "sooner, rather than never. But I digress).
In terms of this game, yes, I have the over and I already know what you're thinking. Probably something like "TORRES! These are two cold weather football teams who love to run the football. You're a mad man. You're crazy. How can you take the over here!"
Well, take a deep breath and let me explain.
Put simply, I think these are two good matchups for each offense. And terrible matchups for these respective defenses.
What do I mean? Well, when Michigan has the ball, here is the bad news: Nebraska has the No. 1 pass defense in all of college football. Of course, that's only bad news if you actually want to throw the ball, something that Michigan was unwilling to do when they played at Oklahoma a few weeks ago. Instead, they will probably try to run it with Justice Haynes into a front seven at Nebraska that has been kind of hit or miss so far. They have just the 75th run defense overall, and Cincinnati was able to average seven yards per carry against them.
Then, there's when Nebraska has the ball on offense.
And whatever you think about Dylan Raiola (yeah, the Patrick Mahomes stuff is weird), he has been a completely different QB this season with Dana Holgorsen calling plays. Did you know that quietly on the year, Raiola is completing nearly 77 percent of his passes with eight touchdowns and zero INT's?! And that he is facing a Michigan defense that is much better against the run than the pass?
In the end, I don't expect this to be some 56-50 barnburner, but could I see 31-28 and an easy over?! I could.
Don't take a side and instead take the points!
BYU at East Carolina (+7.5): Saturday, 7:30 p.m. ET, ESPN2
This is another spot where you have to put aside any preseason bias you had, simply look at the situation and take a side even if it doesn't look right on paper.
Because if you simply go by common-sense, how can you not take BYU. Coming off an 11-win season, No. 1 defense in college football through two games? What isn't there to like?!
Oh, there's plenty to like with the BYU Cougars. Believe me.
At the same time, MAN is this a tough spot for them. Coming off a bye, BYU has to fly across country, and play on the road, against an opponent where the game means much more to them than they do the Cougars (sorry, ECU fans, it's true).
And on top of all that, it comes a week before Big 12 play opens for the Cougars and will also be the first road start for a true freshman quarterback. East Carolina's QB, by the way is Kaitin Houser, who began his career at Michigan State and has actually been pretty good for the Pirates since he arrived.
So when you factor in the environment, where it falls on the calendar for BYU, a pretty good East Carolina defense and a true freshman QB on the road for BYU - that sounds terrifying to me.
Gotta take East Carolina to at least keep it close. If not win outright.
No. 9 Illinois at No. 19 Indiana (-5): Saturday, 7:30 p.m. ET, NBC
Next, let's go to the Big Ten matchup that is not only a Top 25 showdown but also could have long-term College Football Playoff implications.
Yes, I'm of course talking Illinois at Indiana.
Image telling someone even 12 months ago that this one would mean as much as it does.
In terms of these two teams, first off, I've been high on the Hoosiers all summer long (yes, I picked IU to make the playoff back in August). While everyone was focusing on whether they belonged in the playoff or not last year, here's the bottom line: They dominated 11 regular season games a season ago and in 2025, return most of skill position and defensive talent and probably upgraded at quarterback. It's early, but Fernando Mendoza - oh, I don't know, the No. 1 QB in the portal - is rolling, completing 72 percent of his passes with 9 TD's.
As for Illinois, yeah, we all love Luke Altmyer and Bret Bielema isn't afraid to give a good sound bite but forgive me for not being sold on this team. They're just 67th in total offense (kind of weak for a team that has played Western Illinois, Duke and Western Michigan) and were outgained by the Blue Devils a few weeks ago. If it wasn't for a few ugly turnovers, Duke could've potentially won that game.
Really though, this is a bet on Curt Cignetti.
All that guy did was destroy everyone on his schedule last year other than Ohio State and Notre Dame, and all he got was flack for it. Now, he may have a better team across the board this year than last.
In many ways, this game reminds me of last year's Nebraska-Indiana game, where no one believed in the Hoosiers, the Cornhuskers were a trendy 5-1 squad... and IU pounded them 56-7 at home.
I don't think it gets quiet that bad Saturday night, but I like Indiana to win comfortably.
After all, all Curt Cignetti does is win.
Google him.
Florida (+7.5) at No. 4 Miami: Saturday, 7:30 p.m. ET. ABC
Finally, let's get to the big one in South Florida, the matchup that was supposed to a be Top 15 showdown with state pride and playoff implications on the line.
Then, Billy Napier, Billy Napier'd all over the place and Florida lost to South Florida. Then after that, the Billy Napier stink made its way to DJ Lagway, who threw five picks last week against LSU.
Now the Gators are 1-2 and a highly-anticipated season is over before it even began. The question isn't if Napier will be fired. But how soon?
Therefore, we've got to back the Hurricanes, right?!
Surprisingly (much like when Napier doesn't screw up a clock situation), I'll take the Gators to cover.
First off, it is worth noting - Florida was able to move the ball on LSU last week. Now maybe that's a byproduct of LSU's offense being bad but what I said is factually correct. Florida outgained the Tigers and the Tigers had just one offensive touchdown (the other came on a pick-six). On the season, Florida has given up just one defensive TD, a sort of staggering stat for a 1-2 team.
Then, there's the Gators pass offense. Which - again, when they weren't throwing it to the other team - will be going up against a Miami defense that allowed nearly 300 yards passing to South Florida last week.
Beyond that though, this is another situational spot.
A few years ago, I created what I called "The Billy Napier zig-zag betting strategy" in which basically, I did whatever was the opposite of common sense dictated. When Florida lost a close game against a good team, the inclination was "they're making strides!" And I immediately bet against them and would hit easily. When they lost an ugly home game (like against Arkansas in 2023) the idea is "they stink, fade them!" Then they'd immediately play well.
This feels like one of those spots, especially with Miami getting nothing but love here.
Miami is also going into a bye and in two weeks will face Florida State in an ACC opener with conference title implications.
I'm not sure if Florida can win because, well, Billy Napier.
But I could see a 27-24 Canes win and Gators cover.
Enjoy the games everyone!
Last Week: 3-3
Season: 9-10
