College Football Playoff quarterfinal picks (presented by circa sportsbook)

Written By Aaron Torres

Credit: Aaron Torres/Mint Kentucky Down

It’s Tuesday, we’re on the verge of New Year’s and you know what that means: For the final time in 2025, it’s time to make some College Football Picks, baby!

That’s right, it’s been nearly 10 days since our last College Football Playoff games, and at the sake of sounding like Rose from “Titanic” (“It’s been 84 yearrrrrrs) it’s good to have the playoff back!

As always, our point spreads are provided by our friends at Circa Sportsbook, which has just opened up a brand new sportsbook at Mint Kentucky Downs in beautiful Franklin, Kentucky. I was actually at the Mint in December, and it’s a beautiful set-up less than 40 minutes from Nashville right on the Kentucky-Tennessee border. If you’re looking for a place to watch the games this weekend and are in the area, I cannot recommend it enough.

Now, let’s not waste any more time and get to the College Football Playoff quarterfinal picks!

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Cotton Bowl: No. 10 Miami (+9) vs. No. 2 Ohio State - Wednesday, December 31st, 7:30 p.m. ET - ESPN

Let’s start on Wednesday Night, and while grandma is in the other room waiting for the ball to drop with Ryan Seacrest, the rest of us are Rockin’ New Year’s Eve - Ryan Day style, baby!

That’s right, it’s Canes vs. Buckeyes like 2002 all over again, and a simple question: Is either team going to be able to move the ball on the other in this game?!

Let’s start with Miami, and serious question: Does anyone get criticized more, while also producing huge results more than Mario Cristobal does? Seriously, all anyone ever does is complain about him, his clock-management, whatever, and all he does is put together elite staffs and teams. And for what it’s worth, the Hurricanes have as good of a front as anyone in college football. They dominated Notre Dame to start the season. Dominated Texas A&M in the playoff opener. And pretty much dominated everyone up front everywhere in between. Yes, they lost two games but one came in overtime (after a verrrrrry controversial fourth down call) and on the season they haven’t given up more than 24 points in regulation all season.

And while Ohio State is the most talented offense the Hurricanes have faced this year, let’s also call it like it is: They haven’t exactly lit up the scoreboard against elite defenses. There were just 14 points in a win over Texas and 10 in a loss to Indiana a few weeks ago.

At the same time, are we sure Miami can move the ball against this elite Ohio State defense?!

I’m not totally sure.

That’s because for as great as that Texas A&M win was, Miami did put up just 10 points and less than 300 yards in the win. And while Carson Beck is probably taking some unfair criticism (he has thrown for 12 TD’s and just one INT in the last five games) the offense has ben somewhat inconsistent this year, and hasn’t faced a defense this good all season.

Still, nine points is wayyyyy too many and I’m thinking we get something in the neighborhood of a 20-17 Ohio State win.

Orange Bowl: No. 5 Oregon vs. No. 4 Texas Tech (+2) - Thursday, January 1st, 12:00 p.m. ET, ESPN

What better way to start 2026 then to roll out of bed, all hungover, lay on the couch and take in four hours of smash mouth, Oregon-Texas Tech football.

If that’s the wrong way to start a new year, dammit I don’t want to be right!

And really, the more I think about this game, the more I realize: How you feel about this game is directly tied to how you feel about the Big 12 overall.

What do I mean by that?!

Well look, at this point we know who Oregon is; their strengths, their weaknesses, what they do well and what they don’t.

As for Texas Tech, well, they pretty much do everything well: They are Top 5 in the country in total offense and total defense and have America’s best run defense by a pretty substantial margin.

The question is: How good was their competition exactly?

Well honestly, I think pretty good.

The bottom line is that the offense faced three Top 40 defenses this year (BYU twice and UCF once) and put up 29, 48 and 34 points respectively in those games. On defense, they faced the No. 2 rush defense in America, Utah, and held them to about a third of their total run yardage in that game, on the road.

The truth of the matter is that they’re battle-tested, and have stepped up to every challenge.

As far as Oregon they are really good, but let’s also remember that against the best team they faced this year - Indiana - they essentially couldn’t move the ball, tallying 266 yards the entire game. About a quarter of them (44 yards) came on one scoring play early. They also scored just 16 points against the second best defense they faced this year, Iowa.

Look, I like both these teams - and depending on how things unfold - could see either winning.

And if Oregon wins, I do think they can make a run.

But I can only pick one team, and I’m taking Texas Tech to win outright and advance to the College Football Playoff semifinals.


Rose Bowl: No. 9 Alabama vs. No. 1 Indiana (-6.5) - Thursday, January 1st, 4:00 p.m. ET, ESPN

Next up, it the Granddaddy of Them All, the Rose Bowl and man: Can you believe we live in a world where Alabama is a near touchdown underdog to Indiana?

In football?!

It still sounds crazy, and honestly my college football brain is having a hard time wrapping my head around it all. Alabama after all, is the land of the five-stars, has one of the best blue chip recruiting ratios in America, and has stacked highly-ranked recruiting classes as long as most of the players on the field have been alive.

Then there’s Indiana, which is supposed to be a feel good story, with Fernando Mendoza and his band of misfits, many of them who followed Curt Cignetti from James Madison two years ago.

Then you turn on the film and you realize: Indiana is just better. They run the ball and pass it, defend the run and pass, don’t turn it over and don’t commit turnovers. Their quarterback just won the Heisman and they have a bunch of other guys that - no matter how they got here - will play in the NFL soon.

Alabama has plenty of NFL players, but it hasn’t totally clicked on the field this season.

Specifically, as everyone knows, they cannot run the ball.

They rank 125th nationally in rush offense. Are going up against another elite run defense (after facing Georgia and Oklahoma the last two weeks) and will be doing it in an unusually rainy setting Pasadena on Thursday afternoon.

Oh, and if they can’t run the ball, and if that means Ty Simpson has to drop back and throw, he will be doing it against an Indiana defense that was Top 10 in the country in total interceptions this year.

Indiana 24, Alabama 14 - the Indiana Flippin’ Hoosiers advance to the College Football Playoff semifinals.


Sugar Bowl: No. 7 Ole Miss vs. Georgia (-7) - Thursday, January 1st, 8:00 p.m., ESPN

Finally, let’s wrap with the final quarterfinal of the day New Year’s Day, an 8 p.m. ET start time in New Orleans and I’ve got some good news for you: If you’ve got an early wake-up call January 2nd, I think there’s a good chance you’ll be able to get a good night’s sleep.

Look, I’m happy for Ole Miss. Happy they’re on this stage and happy they’re doing it without their former head coach.

At the same time, let’s not forget a few things:

  1. Tulane was able to move the ball on them in the College Football Playoff opener, tallying over 400 yards of total offense. Their issue was that they couldn’t convert when they got in and around the red zone

  2. Yes, Ole Miss played Georgia earlier in the year and it was close. Ole Miss did lead by nine late in the third quarter. Georgia also rallied to win, putting up over 500 yards in the process.

The bottom line is, as easy as it is to forget, Georgia moved the ball at will in that first Ole Miss game, and in a rematch I just don’t see the Rebels slowing them down.

This is where the Ole Miss dream ends, as Georgia advances to the College Football Playoff semifinals.

Happy New Year everyone!

Last Week: 2-2

Overall: 33-32-1


Aaron Torres
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College Football Playoff opening round best bets (Presented by circa sportsbook)