Week 3 College Football Picks: Georgia-Tennessee, LSU-Florida, Texas A&M-Notre Dame and more
Sponsored by Circa Sports
Well folks, we've made it: It's Thursday, we're on the brink of another college football weekend.
And it's time to make some Week 3 college football picks!
First off, it's good to be back on the winning track, as after a disappointing Week 1 we went 3-2 overall. And that doesn't even factor that one of our defeats was snatched from the jaws of victory when Mark Stoops decided to kick a field goal with under 30 seconds to go.
So yeah, thanks for nothing Mark Stoops (a sentiment which I'm sure is shared by plenty of Kentucky fans right now).
With that said, it is time to turn ahead to Week 3, and a loaded, fascinating awesome slate. Georgia-Tennessee, LSU-Florida, Arkansas-Ole Miss... HERE WE COME!
Before we get started, a quick reminder: All of our lines are presented by our official casino and hotel sponsor - Circa Sportsbook and Casino. Remember, in addition to the world's largest sportsbook in Las Vegas, Circa recently opened a brand new sportsbook at Mint Kentucky Downs in Franklin, Kentucky. If you're anywhere in the area make sure to go check it out.
While we're here, also make sure to download the "College Football Betting Podcast" which you can catch on Apple, Spotify and YouTube.
Now, let's get to the Week 3 picks presented by Circa Sportsbook!
Colorado (+6) at Houston: Friday, 7:30 p.m. ET, ESPN
I don't love betting Friday games, but there is one that has caught my attention this week. It's a Big 12 opener between Colorado at Houston, which doubles as the debut of new Colorado starting QB Ryan Staub.
Yes, Colorado fans. I know Coach Prime hasn't made it official yet. But it's coming.
For those who don't know the backstory on Staub, it's fascinating. He sat behind Shedeur Sanders for two years, then when Colorado went out and got both portal star Kaidon Salter and five-star freshman Julian Lewis, Staub something crazy - and decided not to transfer.
After starting the year as third string he balled out last Saturday, leading to this awesome back-and-forth on the field with Staub and Coach Prime in the post-game.
“I had a dream… I saw something and I just wanted to chase it.”
— Bleacher Report (@BleacherReport) September 6, 2025
Ryan Staub after his 157 yd, 2 TD performance 😤
(via @CFBONFOX)pic.twitter.com/B2V1tuxAQw
One, the "Martin Luther Staub" comment literally made me laugh out loud the other day when I saw it. Two, it's clear Coach Prime has confidence in him.
And dammit, if Coach Prime believes, I believe too!
Which leads us to Friday night, where I believe Colorado covers the points. And maybe gets the win.
And for me, the reason why goes back to Week 1 against Georgia Tech. If you watched that game, the reason Colorado lost was pretty simple: They couldn't stop the quarterback run with Haynes King and two they got inconsistent QB play from their own starter in Salter.
Well, with respect to Haynes King's former teammate at Texas A&M, Houston QB Conner Weigman, I'm not sold he's quite the runner that King is. And two, again, I just flat out trust Martin Luther Staub.
I mean Ryan Staub.
That's right, I have a dream! That Colorado gets the cover Friday and we start 1-0 on the weekend.
Wisconsin at No. 19 Alabama (UNDER 47): Saturday, 12:00 p.m. ET, ABC
Next let's go to Saturday, and what I believe - as crazy as it sounds - could be the most consequential game of the weekend. Not the biggest game. But the most consequential.
At least for Alabama. Because for the Tide it isn't even really just about winning this game. But how they look doing it
(Yes, I'm assuming a win. If they don't get it, Kalen Deboer might as well put his house up for sale before he leaves Bryant-Denny Stadium on Saturday afternoon)
Before we get to Saturday, I do think it's important to go back to Week 1. And right now, there really are two ways to look at Alabama.
On the one hand, you could argue that maybe things aren't as bad as we thought. Maybe Florida State is better than we realized heading into the season (they did put up 77 points last week, after all). Maybe going on the road and losing to them in Week 1, against a Gus Malzahn offense isn't the worst loss a program has ever taken. And maybe destroying Louisiana-Monroe is the start of this team proving that they can still reach the potential that most of us believed they had in the preseason.
That's scenario No. 1.
Scenario No. 2 is just that UL-Monroe stinks, and there is nothing to take out of that game.
Which is why Saturday against Wisconsin is so important.
In terms of the game, again, I am going to assume an Alabama win. There are way, WAY bigger picture issues if that doesn't happen.
However, I don't think it's a blowout, because to their credit Wisconsin plays real defense. They've only played Miami (OH) and Middle Tennessee, but currently rank in the Top 5 nationally in both total defense and scoring defense.
Therefore, what I really think we need to see Saturday is three things for Alabama:
Prove they can move the ball against good defenses - and not panic like they did against Florida State
Prove that their defense can dominate an inferior offense, which is what Wisconsin is
Use the home crowd and weather to pull away late.
Ultimately I think Wisconsin's defense is too good and their offense is too bad for this game to hit the over.
This feels like a 27-6 Alabama win and the fans go into the bye happy before they travel to Georgia in two weeks.
No. 12 Clemson (-4) at Georgia Tech: Saturday, 12:00 p.m. ET, ESPN
Two quick thoughts, and two quick thoughts only on this game:
One, are we giving Georgia Tech a tiny bit too much credit for their win over Colorado a few weeks ago? Don't get me wrong, it was a great win. And Colorado had no answer for Haynes King's running ability. But take out his runs - which I know is stupid, because that's the strength of the offense - and Georgia Tech's offense looks quite a bit different. And if it wasn't for Coach Prime's clock management there's a chance that Colorado still wins that game late.
Two, are we undervaluing Clemson a bit?! Yes, I know they lost to LSU and looked sloppy against Troy last Saturday. But as Dabo Swinney said this week, this year is the first team this specific group is dealing with "Rat Poison" (Nick Saban, trademark approved, of course) of any kind. For most of their careers, this team has been told they stink, they're ruining Clemson football etc. Then this summer hit, everyone loved Clemson and was picking them as a national championship contender.
You can see where the extremes might mess with a couple guy's heads.
With that said however, Dabo seemed confident his team is ready to turn things around and I am too.
In the end, I've seen this script play out a million times: Trendy ACC team comes in, facing Clemson when they're not playing well. Everyone picks trendy ACC team. Clemson rolls.
Tigers get the win and the cover in Atlanta.
No. 6 Georgia at No. 15 Tennessee (+4): Saturday, 3:30 p.m. ET, CBS
Let's head about four hours up the road on the I-75 from Atlanta to the game of the day, in beautiful Knoxville, Tennessee.
Yeah, we're talking Georgia and Tennessee.
And I've got to be real, while I expect this to be a back-and-forth game that could go either way, I do like Tennessee to cover the points. And find a way to win.
First off, I know it's a very "casual" way to look at things, but I do think Gunner Stockton making his first career road start is... something. Maybe not everything. But it is a factor. I don't care how much noise they pump into practice, it's not the same as 100,000 crazed fans in Knoxville booing your every move.
It's just different. It is.
And it's especially different when you realize that Georgia's o-line is banged up coming into this one, with two different starting linemen (Juan Gaston and Earnest Greene) on this week's injury report. They both could play, but will be well less than 100 percent going into this one.
Then there's the Tennessee side and it just feels like everything is lining up for a Vols win here and potentially a dream season.
Seriously, have you seen how this fan-base has embraced Joey Aguilar? Crap, forget Joey Aguilar, his freakin' grandma might have a statue built outside of Neyland Stadium by the time this season is done.
Seriously, forget betting against Joey Aguilar in his SEC debut. Can you imagine betting against Abuelita Aguilar?!
Me neither.
Vols win. Vols cover.
Arkansas (+8) at No. 17 Ole Miss: Saturday, 7:00 p.m. ET, ESPN
Let's stay in the SEC and head to a game which I think could end up a lot more interesting than people expect: Arkansas at Ole Miss.
First off, let me say this: While you never want to dismiss any SEC win, didn't last week's Ole Miss victory over Kentucky leave a little to be desired?! The Rebels fell down 10-0 to the Wildcats, winning by seven in a game that Mark Stoops left a minimum of six points on the field with bad game and clock management. New starting quarterback Austin Simmons also has a grand total of two touchdowns and four interceptions so far this season.
Beyond that, there's a possibility that Arkansas might not be as bad as we expected.
Yes, I know they've only played Alabama A&M and Arkansas State. And yes, I know I was the guy clamoring for Arkansas to hire Jon Gruden like 0.0000005 seconds ago. At the same time, they won seven games last year, return their head coach and both coordinators, and Taylen Green is in his second year in Bobby Petrino's system and putting up monster numbers.
Let's also remember, that this series has been relatively close since these two coaches took over at their respective schools in 2020. Overall, Lane Kiffin has a 3-2 record against Sam Pittman, with his two of those wins coming by one point and seven, the latter coming against Pittman's worst. Only last year was this game a blowout and that was in a season where the Hogs had the SEC's worst secondary and Ole Miss had a first round pick at QB.
Ultimately, I'm not sure I'm definitively ready to call for the upset. But eight is too many. I'm calling the Hogs and calling for a cover.
Florida at No. 3 LSU (UNDER 47): Saturday, 7:30 p.m. ET, ABC
Alright, finally let's get to a game that had all the makings of a potential classic... right up until Billy Napier screwed it all up last week. That's right, let's talk Florida-LSU.
First off, I know we're a week removed - but I still can't believe just how awful Napier was a week ago. From calling two pass plays with under three minutes to go (instead of forcing South Florida to call its timeouts), to his clock management, to not using timeouts when USF was clearly in field goal range, to a player spitting on opponent (48 hours after Jalen Carter did the same thing on national TV) it was, quite possibly, the worst meltdown I've ever seen.
But more than just how bad the meltdown was, what was the deal with the offense? Running back Jaden Baugh was running all over USF, then they stopped giving him the ball. DJ Lagway doesn't quite look like himself, but it certainly doesn't help that his receivers can't hold onto the ball.
So yeah, Florida is kind of a mess.
Then there's LSU.
And yes, I was the first one to line up and praise them for the victory over Clemson a few weeks ago. Then, we all watched them struggle against Louisiana Tech, Clemson struggle against Troy and we all thought to ourselves, "Hmm, are either of these teams actually that good?!"
Well, we'll wait and see for official confirmation on Clemson, but with LSU the one thing I do trust is their defense. In Year 2 of the Blake Baker system the players just seem so much more comfortable and confident and are flying everywhere.
In the end, I think LSU wins, but because I don't trust either of these offenses the UNDER feels like the right side.
Stay Aways:
No. 16 Texas A&M at No. 8 Notre Dame (-7): There's one notable game that I didn't touch this week, and it's the Top 25 matchup in South Bend between Texas A&M and Notre Dame.
And ultimately, I just don't think we know enough about these teams. Notre Dame played one game in Miami in which they looked largely out of sorts for big stretches, rallied and nearly won the game before falling to 0-1 and going into a bye last week. And with it came plenty of questions. Why did they abandon the run with Jeremiyah Love? Is the secondary bad or is Carson Beck just good?!
As for A&M, what can we make of wins over, checks notes, UTSA and Utah State? Especially when Mike Elko clearly used them more as warm-up, NFL-style preseason games than actual, tangible affairs that he was trying to win by the biggest possible margin?
If you have a strong opinion on this game, feel free to bet it.
But it's a total stay away to me.
Vanderbilt at South Carolina (-5.5): Every fiber of my being wanted to take Vanderbilt in this game, then I literally saw.... EVERYONE taking the 'Dores and backed off. I do think Vandy is the better team. But I also think it's never smart to bet against any SEC team in a night home game. Stay away! Stay away! Stay away!
Have a great college football Saturday everyone!
Last Week: 3-2
Season: 6-7
