Well folks, we're here.
Gameday. Week 1.
That's right, the greatest sport in the world is kicking off with the greatest opening weekend in sports as well. Five straight days of wall-to-wall football, with no coming up for air until the final whistle on Monday night.
There really is no better time of year.With it, it's also time to put pen to paper, with my official 12-team playoff, championship and Heisman picks. After eight months of prep, there is no turning back now.
Below are all my picks for what should be an epic season ahead. But before we get to it, a quick reminder of what the season ahead will look like:
The 12-team playoff - features four byes, all awarded to the top four conference champions. Alabama and Georgia could enter the SEC title game as No.'s 1 and 2 in the country and Georgia could lose on a walk-off field goal in the greatest game ever played - and could still get no higher than a five-seed.
Five total conference champions also receive an auto-bid, meaning there will be at least one Group of Five representative.
That also means that Notre Dame - without a conference title to play for - can never finish higher than fifth in the playoff seeding
After the four top conference champions are crowned, teams 5-12 will play on the opening weekend of the playoff, in campus games. It'll be epic.
A champion will be crowned all the way on January 25th, so buckle up, because we've got about 20 weeks of excitement ahead.
Oh, if you missed my Week 1 picks - click here. Now, to the 12-team playoff selections
No. 1 seed - Georgia Bulldogs (SEC champ)
Let's start by going out on a limb... and giving the No. 1 overall seed to the No. 1 team in the preseason polls - Georgia, as your official SEC champ (really gutsy, I know).
Yes, the schedule is brutal for Georgia (at Alabama, at Texas, at Ole Miss in league play) but they are so talented, I believe they take two out of three to get to Atlanta, and once there they finish the job in a way they couldn't next year.
You could also get the double-dip of avenging a regular season loss as well, clinching the No. 1 overall seed in the playoff.
No. 2 seed - Oregon Ducks (Big Ten champ)
Any pick for Oregon is a (sort of) pick against Ohio State, since seemingly everyone in college football media has the Buckeyes winning the Big Ten title. We'll save Ohio State for later, so let's focus on Oregon.
Dan Lanning has built an absolute power heading into the Big Ten, and bluntly, I'm not totally sure what their weakness is on paper. Veteran QB, elite line play, plenty of skill position talent. They also have a pseudo-manageable schedule (no USC, no Penn State) with their biggest game at home (against Ohio State).
The Ducks get to Indy in Year 1 and announce their arrival by beating Ohio State for a conference title.
No. 3 seed - Miami Hurricanes (ACC champ)
If you listen to the Aaron Torres Pod, I've said for weeks: This is the most talented roster in the ACC, and bluntly I think it might not be close. While I could see the Hurricanes struggle in Week 1 at Florida, they have the most accomplished QB in the league, stars at the skill positions and dominant players on both lines.
Twenty-plus years after joining the ACC, they win their first title this season.
No. 4 seed - Utah Utes (Big 12 champ)
Put simply, this is a culture play.
The last three years, Utah won two Pac-12 titles, then still managed to win eight games last year playing with a third-string QB.
Cam Rising is back and fully healthy, and in a wild Big 12 - where 7 or 8 teams legitimately think they have the pieces to win it - the Utes take home the conference title.
No. 5 seed - Alabama Crimson Tide (SEC runner-up)
Another one that I feel like I was ahead on, as after an off-season where all we heard was "there's no way Kalen Deboer can keep up the standard of Nick Saban" it feels like a lot of people have come around and said "Ya, know, Bama might not be bad!"
The way I look at it is simple: Kalen Deboer is already an elite head coach, a guy who is 5-0 the last two years against Dan Lanning and Steve Sarkisian. And this is the most talented roster he's ever coached.
I'm not sure they have enough to get past Georgia in Atlanta, but I do have the Tide as my No. 5 seed and SEC runner up.
No. 6 seed - Ohio State Buckeyes (Big Ten runner-up)
I've been critical of Ryan Day, but the talent on this roster is just absurd. When you have Urban Meyer and Jim Tressel calling it "the most talented roster in Ohio State history" you know you're cooking with gasoline here.
So yeah, they're talented, and while I have Oregon as my Big Ten champ, it doesn't mean the Buckeyes aren't capable of winning it all.
Just an insane roster.
No. 7 seed - Ole Miss Rebels (SEC at-large)
Yes, like everyone else I love Ole Miss - and here's a twist for you: I have Jaxson Dart as my 2024 Heisman Trophy winner.
The bottom line is that Heisman voters love stories, and Dart putting up a million yards and points in a year where Ole Miss is as good as they've ever been will be enough to sway voters. Especially in a year where there are no obvious, shoe-in candidates.
Ole Miss finishes 10-2 and gets into the playoff, all while Dart wins college football's most prestigious individual award.
No. 8 seed - Notre Dame Fighting Irish (at-large)
Bluntly, I'm a little more down on Notre Dame's personnel than most. Riley Leonard is coming off major injury and four offensive linemen are gone from last year's team. Oh, and the starting left tackle is out for the year as well.
The thing with Notre Dame is that - as everyone else has pointed out - it's hard to find losses on the schedule. Outside of this weekend at Texas A&M, their two toughest games are Florida State at home and USC to close the season - two teams that might not be ranked the next time an AP Poll comes out.
I do think the lack of great wins may keep Notre Dame from getting higher in these rankings. But at 10-2 or 11-1, they are in, and will host a first round playoff game.
No. 9 seed - Michigan Wolverines (Big Ten at-large)
One team that I'm going all-in on this year is Michigan. They clearly have taken a step back, but I think people underestimate just how much talent they return on the defensive side of the football. That defense along should carry them to a bunch of wins, as they get new QB Alex Orji comfortable.
Ultimately, I think the Wolverines win one of their three big ones - Texas at home, Oregon at home, at Ohio State - to get to 10-2 and an at-large bid.
For what it's worth, this is also a bet against Penn State and James Franklin - who seem to be a trendy at large team that I simply don't trust.
No. 10 seed - Texas Longhorns (SEC at-large)
As you can see, I'm a little bit lower on Texas this year than most. I like Quinn Ewers but he's injury prone, they lost two elite receivers (Xavier Worthy and AD Mitchell) and two elite defensive linemen (T'Vondre Sweat and Byron Murphy) all who went in the first 60 picks of the NFL Draft.
I also do think the grind of the SEC will get them at least once in a weird spot (maybe at A&M - can you imagine?), even if the Longhorns have about as manageable a schedule as anyone in the league.
To their credit, I do expect them to be rewarded for their challenging trip to Michigan, and a win there could seal an at-large berth even if they take a weird loss somewhere else.
No. 11 seed - Clemson Tigers (ACC at-large)
So I don't love Clemson, for the same reason that most of you don't.
Stubborn Dabo. Not enough depth. And Cade Klubnik - at least so far - hasn't been who he was promised.
At the same time, I have a take on this season: In year one of the 12-team playoff, I think the committee will go out of its way to prove that this playoff isn't an "SEC/Big Ten invitational." Because of that, I expect them to go out of their way to figure out a way to get in an ACC or Big 12 team as an at-large, if at all possible.
Clemson gets smoked by Georgia this weekend and takes a loss somewhere in league play, but also gets to the ACC title game. A 10-3 record, with a loss to Miami gets them into the final spot.
No. 12 - Liberty Flames (Group of Five highest ranked champ)
Remember, the five highest-ranked conference champions get in, meaning that the highest-rated Group of Five champ automatically gets a spot.
In this case, it's Liberty which blitzes through Conference USA undefeated to gobble up the final spot.
First round games:
For the sake of brevity, we'll skip through detailed breakdowns of hypothetical games four months into the future, and just get you my picks through the final four.
Also, how sick are these opening round matchups, on campus going to be?!
No. 9 Michigan at No. 8 Notre Dame - MICHIGAN WIN
No. 12 Liberty at No. 5 Ohio State - OHIO STATE WIN
No. 10 Texas at No. 7 Ole Miss - OLE MISS WIN
No. 11 Clemson at No. 6 Alabama - ALABAMA WIN
Quarterfinals
Remember, the final three rounds of the playoff are on neutral fields (good luck to all the fans that plan on traveling somewhere between 4-5 weeks this winter following your team!)
No. 9 Michigan vs. No. 1 Georgia - GEORGIA WIN
No. 5 Ohio State vs. No. 4 Utah - UTAH WIN
No. 7 Ole Miss vs. No. 2 Oregon - OREGON WIN
No. 6 Alabama vs. No. 3 Miami - ALABAMA WIN
Semifinals
With the semifinals set, let's do a quick breakdown of how we got here, and how we got to the finals:
No. 4 Utah vs. No. 1 Georgia - GEORGIA WIN
The Utah pick will shock most people, but simple question: Isn't Ohio State in the exact situation they're in (with people questioning Ryan Day) because of teams like Utah?! Tough and physical at the line of scrimmage, that aren't intimidated by the Buckeyes (like say, Penn State is). Not to mention, these two teams played in the Rose Bowl three years ago, and Utah nearly won.
With that said, Utah's dream run ends in the semifinals, where they get steamrolled by a Georgia team that is just as tough as them along both lines of scrimmage, with way too much talent on the outside.
The Dawgs advance to another title game.
No. 6 Alabama vs. No. 2 Oregon - OREGON WINS
I know, I know, Alabama fans are going to tell me "Kalen Deboer beat Dan Lanning twice last year - there's no way he's losing to him with this Bama roster."
That may be, but again, I believe Oregon is built to play with - and beat - anyone in the sport and they end Deboer's first year in Tuscaloosa one game short of a championship.
No. 2 Oregon vs. No. 1 Georgia - GEORGIA WINS
Picking my No. 2 seed to play my No. 1 seed for a national title is bold, I know. But I believe these are the two best teams in the sport and will meet in Atlanta in January.
And after going back-and-forth on this game a bunch, I ended up with Georgia as my 2024=25 national champion.
The Dawgs simply have too much on both sides of the ball, and Carson Beck is the more experienced QB, in his system in the big game.
A year after falling just short as (arguably) the best team in college football, there is no debate: Georgia is your 2024-25 national champions.
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