Well everyone, the long national nightmare is over.
That's right... after eight months, college football is BACK baby (and depending on how you look at it - better than ever).
And with it, what's also back is our weekly college football picks. And boy oh boy what a season we are coming off in 2023.
To be blunt, it was about as good of a season as I can remember having, where admittedly it just felt like I was seeing the board in a way that I never have before. The best part was, we capped it with a very profitable postseason. We finished 6-1 in bowl game picks, and also nailed both semifinals and the finals.
So yeah, we were cooking with gasoline last year. But the big question is, with another season ahead, can we keep it up?!
We're about to find out baby, and that's the best part.
Now before we get to the picks, a couple quick reminders.
One, we'll make our official picks on the Aaron Torres Pod YouTube every Tuesday night and we also have our College Football Betting Pod, where we'll go even more in-depth as the week goes on.
Anyway, there is no more time to waste - so let's get to.... THE PICKS with all odds presented by FanDuel Sportsbook.
North Dakota State at Colorado (-9.5): Thursday, 8 p.m. ET, ESPN
So look, I know that a lot of you are already sick of Coach Prime, and the season hasn't started yet. The talking, the media back-and-forths, the never ending social clips. For those of you who like your coffee strong, your apple pie warm and your college football coaches old and grumpy, Coach Prime might not be your cup of tea.
I personally like him. But again, understand he ain't for everyone.
The thing is though, no matter what you think about Deion and Colorado here is the truth: They should be much improved this year.
Like, I don't think it's hyperbole to say they are quite literally better at every position group than they were a year ago. Shedeur Sanders is back at quarterback, the Buffaloes greatly improved their offensive line, added some elite offensive talent (watch out for FAU transfer wide receiver LaJohntay Wester) and their d-line has several players who shined at the Power 5 level last year (when there was still a Power 5).
Now, does that mean they're going undefeated and winning the Big 12? Of course not.
But they're also playing a North Dakota State team that lost four games last year and has a brand new head coach. Put simply, Carson Wentz ain't walking through that door.
Colorado will be challenged down the road, and will lose some games. Probably starting next week at Nebraska.
But in this one? They cruise.
No. 14 Clemson vs. No. 1 Georgia (-13.5): Saturday, 12:00 p.m. ET, ABC (in Atlanta)
Couple thoughts here, and a couple thoughts only.
One, Georgia is my preseason national championship pick (really going out on a limb taking the preseason No. 1 team, I know). So it's obvious that I already like the Dawgs.
And at the same time, I'm not as down on Dabo as most. I obviously fundamentally disagree with not using the portal to rebuild your roster. But if you and your bosses are willing to deal with the consequences, who am I to tell you how to do your job?
Except here is the problem with Saturday's game against Georgia: This is the exact game where those consequences come to bear.
The bottom line is that Dabo's disinterest in the portal doesn't impact him against Boston College or Wake Forest - his top guys will always be better than their top guys. Where the issue comes in, is in games like this, where your top guys are basically the same, and Georgia can keep sending waves of new fresh bodies at your starters.
I believe this game is close for 2.5 quarters, but in the end, Georgia's depth and Clemson's lack thereof is the separator, as the Bulldogs pull away late.
Georgia 30, Clemson 13.
No. 8 Penn State at West Virginia (UNDER 51.5): Saturday, 12:00 p.m. ET, FOX
Ah, it's late August and you know what that means. The kids are back to school. The days are getting shorter. And the entire national media is trying to convince you that this is finally the year things are different for Penn State.
The 2024 season even has the added twist of, "No team is more helped by expanding to a 12-team playoff than Penn State!" which of course sounds great, until you remember that Penn State couldn't get past Ohio State and Michigan, and Oregon has now been added to the league (not to mention programs like Nebraska are improving rapidly).
Anyway, I will not be one of those media members who spends all of August trying to convince you that this is finally the year James Franklin comes through in big games. Instead, I will take him for what he is: A good football coach, who isn't great. A guy who doesn't win big games. And a guy who coaches tight in big spots and on the road.
That's also why I love the under here.
Everyone will sell you on Penn State's new offensive coordinator, and I'm sure against Illinois in October, up 21 he'll be great. But in a hostile road venue, James Franklin is gonna James Franklin, and he's going to take the air out of the ball and rely on his defense to shut down West Virginia's offensive attack.
This one won't be pretty. It will be low-scoring. Take the under.
No. 19 Miami at Florida (ML/+2.5): Saturday, 3:30 p.m. ET, ABC
So, if you follow me at all, you know two things about me heading into the season: One, I have Miami winning the ACC (another really out on a limb pick, I know). And two, I'm not a Billy Napier guy. Just too many weird things happen on his watch for me to believe that he is really the right, big picture guy for Florida.
But if you follow Napier closely, one interesting trend has emerged: Just when you begin to trust him, he lets you down. And just when you give up on him he'll surprise.
Last year alone, there was the devastating loss to Utah on opening weekend where Florida essentially beat themselves.... only for them to come back and beat Tennessee at home two weeks later. Corner turned, right?! Nope, instead they went to Kentucky and got POUNDED. Which was then followed by a wild rally to beat South Carolina... before he tanked the rest of the season. Yet even in that tanking, there was a near upset at Missouri.
See what I'm saying? The man is the ultimate zigger, when everyone expects him to zag. And vice versa.
And in this game - where everyone has spent all off-season bashing him - I expect him to have the Gators ready to go.
Beyond that, there are also a couple of other factors that I believe work in his favor.
One, this game is at the Swamp. More importantly, it's at the Swamp, in the first true road game for Miami in the "helmet comms" era. Just think back to last week with Haynes King, and how much trouble he was having hearing his play caller through his headset.
Now, Cam Ward - who is a turnover prone QB as is - has to deal with that in front of 90,000 people at the Swamp?!
It feels like a recipe for disaster and a turnover at the worst possible time.
I believe Florida wins, but if you want to feel safe and not get Napier'd just take the 2.5 points for the cover.
No. 7 Notre Dame at No. 20 Texas A&M (UNDER 46.5): Saturday, 7:30 p.m. ET, ABC
So this was a game I had flagged all summer as a spot to take Texas A&M.
After all, it's the dawn of the Mike Elko era, positive vibes are in the air, and there is no doubt about the talent on the A&M roster.
But at the same time, a few things scared me enough to simply stick with the under.
From the A&M perspective, the weakness of this program the last couple years (besides at head coach) is along the offensive line. It's a huge part of the reason that well, seemingly, every quarterback on the roster at A&M has seemingly ended up getting hurt the past half decade (that's a rough estimate).
Which also leads to concern No. 2 of course, which is that Conor Weigman is coming off a major injury and hasn't played in a year.
Speaking of which, I also think it's worth noting that Riley Leonard is also coming off a major injury in his own right. What's interesting about him is that he not only missed the end of the year, but spring ball as well.
Therefore, take a hostile environment, two defensive head coaches and two quarterbacks coming off major injury, ah yeah, I don't expect the fireworks to absolutely fly.
I think Texas A&M wins, but the UNDER feels like the right play to me.
No. 23 USC (+4.5) vs. No. 13 LSU: Sunday, 7:30 p.m. ET, ABC
Can't lie, one of my favorite, random sports traditions is the random Sunday night, Labor Day weekend college football game that we get. It always involves two big-time programs and almost always gets weird.
Remember the time Charlie Strong got taken off on his players shoulders after beating Notre Dame?! Oh, the memories.
Anyway, this will be a fun one, and my first hunch here was to take the OVER of 63.5. Two defenses completely getting overhauled, two of the most explosive offenses in college football a season ago. Total no-brainer, right?!
I'm honestly no so sure.
With LSU, the strength of their offense this year is, of all places, on the offensive line. Will Campbell and Emory Jones are the best pair of tackles in college football, and I'm not sure it's even close. I expect them to run the ball right at USC's defense, which should be improved, but umm yeah, still ain't the '85 Bears.
Speaking of which, lets also not pretend that USC won't be able to move the ball against an LSU secondary which was abysmal last year. The good news for LSU is that everyone comes back. The bad news of course is that everyone comes back. This, off of a team that ranked 115th in pass defense a season ago.
I truly believe this is a game that USC can, and might win.
But I'll take the Trojans and the points in this one, just in case.
Again, because the Sunday Night Labor Day weekend game always gets weird.
ENJOY THE GAMES EVERYONE!!!!!
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