Austin Montgomery's best NFL Draft prop bets
The NFL Draft is upon us once again. Which means it’s time for Draft props.
It’s been a while since I have posted anything, especially football related, but it's good to be back on the grind.
The better part? DraftKings also has some great promotions on deck as well. With the draft being held in Vegas, it only seems right to handicap some draft props.
Without further ado, here are the props in order where I like best - as always, the props are presented by DraftKings Sportsbook.
Garrett Wilson first wide receiver taken (+105)
Wilson has gotten comparisons ranging from former Rookie of the Year Justin Jefferson to former Buckeye Michael Thomas. He is the best route runner in the draft class. He can excel in the lot or on the outside. He is a game breaker from day one.
The other two receivers that are in his talent level (Drake London and Jameson Williams) are both coming off injuries. Wilson should be much more of a favorite here. Expect him to be the first wideout that gets his name called first.
Travon Walker to be the second overall pick (+500)
Walker is the new favorite to be the No. 1 overall pick. Until recently Aidan Hutchinson had been the perceived favorite. My question is, why is Walker the third choice to be 2nd overall pick, when he is favored to go 1st? I think the wise move for the Jaguars may go with Hutchinson based what he has shown on film. Walker is an athletic freak which is what Detroit coach Dan Campbell loves. 5/1 odds to be the second pick is pretty good value. While this prop might not hit, we are getting a good price.
Kyle Hamilton UNDER 12.5 (-150)
Are NFL Gm’s going to learn what they missed out when they let Derwin James fall? Hamilton has been one of the best defensive playmakers in college football the past two seasons. So, he ran a 4:59 40, so what? Hamilton has All-Pro written all over him. He possesses great instincts and ball skills. He is big enough to play in the box as well. Any defense could use. Both New York teams and Atlanta are good destinations. You have to trust NFL GM’s not to make a stupid mistake here.
Charles Cross over 6.5 (-145)
Cross is the third best player at the offensive tackle position. He is kind of a one-dimensional player. We did not get to see him run block in Mike Leach’s air raid offense. The offensive linemen techniques don’t necessarily translate to the NFL. So Cross is going to have to make adjustments. I just don’t see teams reaching for him here. I have Ikem Ekwonu and Evan Neal rated comfortably ahead of him. I can see Carolina taking a quarterback- the only slot where I can see Cross being taken in the top 10.
OVER 6.5 wide receivers first round (-120)
The logic in this one is the league’s demand for wide receivers. We have Kansas City, Los Angeles (LAC), both New York teams, Philly, New England, Green Bay, Washington, Chicago, Arizona and San Francisco in the market to take a receiver in the first round. This draft has tons of receiver depth, especially in the mid-20’s range. We have seen rookie receivers blossom into stars early. The receiver market is blowing up and teams are struggling to hold onto their stars. So they will begin to replace them with the next big thing in the draft. I really like this prop and think it goes way over.
Trevor Penning under 16.5 (-150)
As a Charger fan, I might be hedging my happiness here. I really think Penning is the real deal and will be a viable starting right tackle from Day 1. I don’t see many mock drafts having Penning making it 17. The guys at the Draft Network have Penning going in the top 10. Todd McShay has him going 16 and Peter Schrager has him going 14th. A run-oriented team like Baltimore would be an amazing fit. Take Penning to get his name called early.
Andrew Booth OVER 26.5
I feel bad taking over on guys, Booth is going to fall due to a circumstance out of his control. Booth has not done any pre-draft testing due to a quad strain and hernia surgery. Guys that play athletic positions who don’t test tend to fall. Schrager and Lance Zierlien left him out of the first round. Jaime Elsner and Justin Melo of the Draft Network have him falling to the very tail end of the first round. While corner back is an important position, it’s not an area we will see teams reach for. I think Booth drops here.
George Pickens under 36.5
Pickens is the receiver everyone wants in the second round. Meaning, he will not be there when the second round comes along. Pickens missed most of the 2021 season after tearing his ACL in the spring, but his talent cannot be denied. It was still able to contribute to Georgia’s national championship. You can argue if Pickens got a full season of work, he would be the top receiver on the board. There are off the field issues stemming from his freshmen year. Pickens is one of those receivers a team with a good culture, like the Chiefs are willinging to gamble on. Pickens talent is undeniable and a team will gamble on him.
Follow Austin Montgomery on Twitter @AMontgomeryLive
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