Credit: LSU Athletics
Well folks, it’s Wednesday and you know what that means: It’s time to make some college football picks.
And if it feels like there’s a little bit extra pep in our step in this column, well it’s for good reason.
One, we’re coming off the best Saturday of the season, going 5-1 a week ago. It’s our third winning week out of the last four.
But two we’re fired up because honestly… this might be the best weekend of college football we’ve had in YEARS.
SIGN UP FOR OUR “INSIDE COLLEGE SPORTS NEWSLETTER” FOR FREE - TO HAVE DAILY NIL, PORTAL AND COACHING CAROUSEL NEWS DELIVERED TO YOUR INBOX EVERY DAY!
In total we have six Top 25 matchups and five in the Top 20 of the new College Football Playoff rankings, meaning that by Sunday night, the sport as we know it will be completely flipped on its head!
So with that, let’s not waste any more time and get to the picks.
Frinedly reminder: All odds provided by our friends at Kalshi.
Remember, if you download the Kalshi app, you get $25 free when you make your first $25 trade - when use code “AARON.”
Now, let’s get to the picks:
No. 8 BYU at No. 3 Utah (UNDER 48.5): Saturday, 12:00 ET, ABC
Let’s start in the early window (and the VERY early window if you’re in Utah getting ready for a 10 a.m. local time kick) and let’s start with maybe the most significant “Holy War” ever?!
It sure feels that way, as BYU and Utah square off for the first time ever as Top 10 teams. They are also both in the mix of the College Football Playoff race.
So what should we expect when these two teams get together? Frankly, not a lot of points.
For BYU, listen, the Notre Dame was an incredible moment. It wasn’t just a significant moment for the season, but for the program as a whole.
At the same time we also have to admit: This team hasn’t been the same since. They gave up 39 points in that loss to UCF and then last week, barely survived Arizona State at home. The Sun Devils were playing a back-up, true freshman QB, yet nearly pulled off the upset. In the process, BYU went just 3 of 13 on third down and had just 47 yards of rushing.
To put it simply, unless LJ Martin is walking through that door like Willis Reed, I don’t expect them to move the ball much against a Top 25 Utah run defense.
But when Utah has the ball will it be any better?! I’m not sure.
That’s because the Utes’ opponent also has a Top 25 run defense. And while everyone fell in love with this BYU offense a week ago against Cincinnati, it hasn’t always been so smooth for Utah. They had 21 points in a win over Houston at home two weeks ago, and the game before that needed to hold on in the final seconds against Colorado.
In the end, I’ll take Utah at home, but in a close, low scoring 20-14 victory.
No. 7 Texas at No. 18 Missouri (+2.5): Saturday, 12:00 p.m. ET, ESPN
Want the single most underrated game of the day?!
Go ahead and give me this one.
To their credit, Texas comes in off two straight wins. While Missouri is quietly 6-2 and very much in the playoff mix if they can win this game.
Heading in, we could break down a million stats, but the big question is on the injury front, specifically at Texas.
Honestly, by the end of their game last week against Mississippi State, it felt like every player on their roster not named “Arch Manning” was in a sling, walking boot or eye patch on the sideline. Starting left tackle Trevor Goosby is out for the year. Colin Simmons is still dealing with a high ankle sprain. Running back Hollywood Smothers is out, and star receivers Ryan Wingo and Cam Coleman are both questionable heading into Saturday.
Busy injury report for Texas. No Hollywood Smothers. Colin Simmons, Ryan Wingo and Cam Coleman all questionable. https://t.co/m9IlzXkGh5
— Pete Thamel (@PeteThamel) November 5, 2026
So if anything my real advice is to follow the injury reports right up until kickoff.
But since you want a pick today, give me Missouri plus the points, for a few reasons.
One, they’re at home.
Two, they are much healthier coming in.
And three, stylistically they actually match up pretty well with a banged up Texas team.
In Texas’ losses this year, what have they struggled to do the most? Run the ball.
Well, Missouri has the No. 16 rush defense in the country, which will put more on Arch Manning’s plate.
And when you put a lot on Arch Manning’s plate what happens?! Generally, he turns the ball over, with seven interceptions this year.
Well, guess who is Top 10 in the country in turnover margin?! Missouri, which not only takes the ball away from their opponents at a high clip, but barely turn the ball over themselves. They have just five total turnovers all year, tied with Kentucky for fewest in the SEC.
As the old saying goes, “styles make fights.”
And the style here gives the advantage to Missouri.
No. 5 Alabama at No. 14 LSU (-5.5): Saturday, 3:30 p.m. ET, ABC
So look, I have been, at times, critical of Lane Kiffin. But he is dead right on one thing: This game being played at 3:30 ET, 2:30 CT is insane. Had some politician ran on “Alabama vs. LSU can only be played at night” a couple days ago on Election Day, they would’ve had my vote, dammit.
Speaking of which, you know who else has my vote (terrible transition, I know): LSU, as the most improved, and scariest team in college football right now.
Again, I have been critical of Lane Kiffin for various things through the years. But no one can deny he’s a heck of a coach. He’s figured out this era of college football as well as anyone, and always has his teams playing best late.
That’s right, over the last few weeks, Sam Leavitt has looked like a different quarterback and the defense is getting healthy (although star linebacker Whit Weeks is still expected to be out on Saturday). And its shown in the on-field product, as the Tigers won their last two games before the bye by a combined score of 68-17 (and frankly, that’s misleading because one of the touchdowns Auburn scored was in the final seconds of a blowout loss).
Then there’s Alabama, and if I was going to defend Kalen Deboer on one thing, I would say: Like LSU, the Tide were dealing with all sorts of injuries heading into their bye week.
At the same time, we also can’t dismiss the fact that the same issues that have plagued the Deboer era are starting to plague this team. Mainly, can this team run the football? They certainly couldn’t against Tennessee and even in a win over Texas A&M, they went for just 68 yards on 24 carries.
Maybe it’s all injuries, or maybe they once again don’t have a run game. And against the best rush defense in the SEC, I’m not willing to find out.
Add in Lane Kiffin’s extra motivation after being passed over when the Alabama job opened, and I’ve got to say: I think LSU wins… comfortably.
Final score: LSU 27, Alabama 10 in Baton Rouge.
DOWNLOAD THE KALSHI APP - AND GET $25 FREE WHEN YOU MAKE YOUR FIRST TRADE, WHEN YOU USE CODE “AARON”
No. 6 Kentucky (+6.5) at No. 13 Tennessee: Saturday, 6:15 p.m. ET, ESPN
Let’s get to the night slate, and yet another defacto playoff game in Knoxville.
Kentucky and Tennessee have met 121 times dating back to 1893. And it feels fair to say that there has never been a matchup bigger than this.
Both teams are in position for the College Football Playoff. Neither can afford a loss.
So what should we expect?!
Transparently, a close, low-scoring back and forth game.
Look, Kentucky is a great story - but we aren’t expecting a low scoring game because it’s a cool story.
The reason is simple: The style of this game is built for it to be a one-possession game.
That’s because while we think of Tennessee as a high-flying offensive attack, that’s simply not who they are this year. They actually rank dead last in the SEC in pass offense (a crazy stat for those of us old enough to remember the Hendon Hooker years). They are however, No. 1 in the SEC in rush attempts and they haven’t given up more than 20 points in any of their three SEC home games.
Then there’s Kentucky, which is also built to win, close, low-scoring games. Which is again weird, given their coach’s background.
But that’s truly who they are, as Kentucky is one of the best teams in the country in turnover margin. They are No. 4 in the country in most turnovers gained and have only had five turnovers themselves all year, tied for lowest in the SEC.
What they’re really built to do is stay in games, not beat themselves, and then when you screw up - take total advantage.
Which is why Kentucky plus the points is the right side here.
I can’t guarantee that they win in Neyland Stadium for the first time at full capacity since 1984 (when Will Stein’s dad was on the Wildcats team).
What I can promise is that it will close right down to the finish.
Give me Tennessee 20, Kentucky 17 in a thriller in Knoxville.
No. 2 Georgia (-3.5) at No. 9 Ole Miss: Saturday, 7:30 p.m. ET, ABC
Let’s start to wrap, and get to the first of two pretty significant 7:30 p.m. ET games, and let’s talk Georgia at Ole Miss.
A rematch of last year’s Sugar Bowl, one of the best games of the college football season.
Unfortunately, while many of the major characters in that game - Kirby Smart, Trinidad Chambliss etc. - are back, I don’t expect it to be nearly as competitive.
One, Georgia is just better.
Gunner Stockton is a year older, they’re running the ball better and the defense can actually get after the quarterback this year. In a truly crazy stat, the Bulldogs had just 20 sacks all of last year, one of the worst marks in the SEC. They have 26 already this year, which currently puts them in the Top 10 nationally.
Then there’s Ole Miss, and they’re not the same either.
Frankly, if I’m being honest, I don’t know how they are sitting here at 6-2 at this point in the season.
While Trinidad Chambliss is still effective, his turnovers are way up (eight INT’s this year, compared to three all of last year) and the run game has mostly been non-existent. Kewan Lacy is officially out Saturday night against Georgia, which isn’t exactly great news. Meanwhile, the defense also isn’t the same, ranking 101st nationally in pass defense and 86th in rush defense.
Again, I truly don’t know how they’re 6-2.
Well, they won’t be for long and this is where they take their third loss.
The Bulldogs are simply the better team, and maybe transparently, the best team in college football.
Georgia 27, Ole Miss 10, in a statement win in Oxford.
No. 1 Miami at No. 11 Notre Dame (-8.5): Saturday, 7:30 p.m. ET, NBC
So we’ve been billing this as one of the games of the year in college football since the summer, and it somehow got added intrigue this week.
That’s because a Top 5 matchup entering the week, now isn’t even a Top 10 matchup - as the College Football Playoff committee ranked Notre Dame No. 11 in their first poll.
Bluntly, the committee’s message seems pretty clear: If Notre Dame doesn’t win this game, they aren’t going to have a College Football Playoff worthy resume.
There is also new added intrigue, after we found out that Malachi Toney won’t play in this game. In the process, the number jumped all the way from Notre Dame being favored by 6.5 to now closer to 8.5 points.
Add it all up, and it’s hard not to like Notre Dame - even with the big point spread.
It’s a must win game and they’re at home, in cold weather and the other team is without their best player.
Notre Dame 31, Miami 21. The Irish get their signature win.
Last Week: 5-1
Overall: 24-24