indiana vs. miami - national title game pick + best bet (presnented by circa sportsbook)
Credit: Aaron Torres
Well folks, we made it.
I cannot believe it’s really here, but say it with me…. IT’S TIME TO MAKE OUR COLLEGE FOOTBALL NATIONAL TITLE GAME PICK!
And boy, oh boy what a season it’s been.
I mean honestly, it feels like only yesterday that were were in the midst of hot off-season debates like “Is Clemson vs. LSU a playoff preview” and “DJ Lagway for Heisman? Why not?!” Now, here we are a few months later with a title game that no one predicted, but one that should be incredible anyway.
Miami vs. Indiana for all the college football glory in 2026.
And folks, it’s time to share our game pick and best bet.
Before we do, a friendly reminder: As always, our point spreads are provided by our friends at Circa Sportsbook, which has just opened up a brand new sportsbook at Mint Kentucky Downs in beautiful Franklin, Kentucky. I was actually at the Mint in December, and it’s a beautiful set-up less than 40 minutes from Nashville right on the Kentucky-Tennessee border. If you’re looking for a place to watch the game on Monday night - this is a great place to do it.
Now, let’s get to the pick:
No. 10 Miami vs. No. 1 Indiana
Spread: Indiana (7.5)
Over/Under: 48.5
So we are now just hours until kick-off, and it’s wild to think: I don’t think I’ve heard anyone yet make the definitive argument on Miami winning this game.
It’s all about Indiana.
How dominant they are. How quirky their QB is. How angry (in a cute, cuddly sitcom type way) their head coach is. How they’re both the immaculate force and immovable object, a football machine who’s only object is to seek and destroy any hope, any team has, in any game they play all year.
While that’s not technically true, it is hard to argue with. And what’s crazy is, as they have gotten deeper into their season and the games tougher, they are actually playing better.
It’s actually kind of incredible how good they’ve been in this playoff.
Not just the 38-3 win over Alabama or 56-22 drubbing of Oregon, but how they’ve looked in doing it. How Fernando Mendoza currently has more touchdown passes (eight) than incompletions in this postseason (five). How they’re averaging over 200 yards per game on the ground against two of the best defenses in the country. How they still refuse to commit penalties or turn the ball over (despite playing two more games than virtually everyone in college football, they are still in the Top 10 in fewest total penalties and fewest total turnovers this season).
They truly are a football machine, with the mad genius Curt Cignetti calling the shots.
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However, to the degree that Indiana has struggled at all this year, the one thing that has at least slowed them down is big physical fronts on both sides of the ball. They needed a late miracle at Penn State, rallied against Iowa and were somewhat stymied against Ohio State, and what you could argue is that those three schools - along with Oregon - probably have the most NFL bodies on both lines of scrimmage of any team they’ve faced this season.
And it’s why I think Miami has a shot Monday.
That’s because for whatever you think of the Hurricanes, the one thing they’ve done against everyone all season is smashed them in the facemask and run the ball down their throats. They did it against Notre Dame in the opener and never really stopped doing it all season, on their way to play wins against Texas A&M, Ohio State and Ole Miss.
The big question: Can they do it one more time Monday night.
I think they can, but will add this caveat: The one thing Miami can’t do Monday is what they did against Ole Miss and that’s get cute. Remember, that was a game where Miami was physically man-handling the Rebels up front, had the ball for over 40 minutes over the course of the game… and still only led 17-16 heading into the fourth quarter. They left way too many points on the field early, and late when they could’ve run out the game and run out the clock by running the ball, they instead chose to pass it instead.
So basically, it’s the brains and brawn of Indiana vs. the brawn and brains… maybe of Miami on Monday night.
It’s also why I will veer a little bit from the consensus: I actually expect a close low-scoring game.
Which is why my official Circa Sportsbook best bet is the UNDER of 48.5.
The bottom line is these aren’t just two elite teams, they are two teams that want to physically maul you at the line of scrimmage and not put too much on their quarterbacks. That’s actually the crazy part about Fernando Mendoza this postseason. He has been elite no doubt, but really there hasn’t been much put on his shoulders as he’s thrown the ball just 18 times per game.
In the end, I think it’s close and low scoring and I will take Indiana to win 24-20.
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However, I’m also not putting it out of the realm of possibility that on their home field, in a season where Miami has run the ball on everyone - from Notre Dame, to Texas A&M, Ohio State and Ole Miss - that they can run the ball on Indiana as well and pull off the upset.
One thing I can’t see happening though is either team busting this thing open and scoring 35 or 40 points.
Give me the Hoosiers, but give me an official best bet of UNDER 48.5.
Enjoy Monday night everyone!
Final score: Indiana 24, Miami 20
Circa Sportsbook Best Bet: UNDER 48.5