Another day, another World Series preview. Atlanta dominated Game 1, Houston dominated Game 2 and now the series shifts to the all important game 3. Who do we like in this matchup? We are going for 3-0 on our World Series bets this week.
We are going to break down this grudge match in game three with Atlanta and Houston. Atlanta is a perfect 5-0 at home in the postseason this October. Interestingly, Houston has won their last four World Series road games. But that stat doesn’t matter much here. We got a big pitching matchup with Ian Anderson on the hill for the Braves and Luis Garcia will take the ball for Houston. Both pitchers were sensational in the team’s Game 6 close out games. Garcia threw 5 ⅔ of scoreless balls and got the win against Boston. While Anderson had one earned run on three hits in four innings of work in Atlanta's 4-2 win over Los Angeles in Game 6 of the National League Championship Series.
With Charlie Morton out for the rest of the series, Game 3 seems like it is a must win for the Braves. It’s hard to find a scenario where Atlanta comes back to win the series with Drew Smyly and Kyle Wright pitching Games 4 and 5.
2021 World Series - Game 3
Houston at Atlanta, Friday, 8:09 p.m. ET
Game Odds, presented by DraftKings Sportsbook
Houston: -1.5 (+155)
Atlanta: +1.5 (-180)
Total Runs: 8.5
Ian Anderson is a postseason gamer:
The Braves have found their future ace for the next decade in Ian Anderson. In seven postseason starts Anderson has 1.25 ERA in 30.2 innings and has a (3.96 xFIP) in that stretch as well. Anderson has thrived under the postseason lights after being tossed into the postseason fire as a rookie last year, and his role in the World Series has taken on significant importance following the Morton injury.
The 23 -year-old should match up well against the potent Houston lineup. He has career reverse splits, meaning he pitches to lefties better than righties as a right handed pitcher. Anderson has neutralized batters using his dynamic circle change. Anderson also utilizes a four-seam fastball (47.1 percent) and a curveball (21.1 person). There are four batters who can excel against Anderson’s style of pitching: Yuri Gurriel, Kyle Tucker, and Carlos Correa all have plus pitch values against change ups and curveballs. Anderson should be able to take care of Jose Altuve, Yordan Alvarez, and Michael Brantley who have negative pitch values against change ups. I’ll take my chances on the former three. This is a big game and Atlanta should thrive from the home crowd.
Houston will send Luis Garcia on the mound. Garcia had a great rookie season going 11-8 with 3.30 ERA, 3.36 FIP and 4.38 SIERA, and had a brilliant performance last Friday in a Game 6 of the ALCS. However he was rocked in his previous two postseason starts giving up 5 runs in just one inning of work against Boston in Game 2 and he gave up five runs in 2 ⅔ innings against the White Sox in Game 3. Garcia relies on his fastball and cutter combo. Has been inconsistent recently. Specifically on the road where he averaged 3.9 walks per nine innings during his road starts. Freddie Freeman and Eddie Rosario are fastball killers on the left side. Rosario is hitting .426 in the postseason. Atlanta's lefties should have success against Garcia especially if his cutter isn’t sharp.
We have to go with Atlanta in this one. This will be the first World Series game in Atlanta in 22 years. The atmosphere is going to be absolutely rocking. Atlanta's lineup gets a young Houston pitcher who has struggled with control away from home, and also, Houston will have to adjust its lineup to National League rules. Yordan Alvarez will be a defensive liability in left field.
Atlanta will also have a rested bullpen. Tyler Matzek and AJ Minter will be ready to go. If Atlanta wants to keep its World Series hopes alive, they have to win tonight. I believe they get it done.
Atlanta is a lock tonight
The pick: Atlanta ML -112
Follow Austin on Twitter @AMontgomeryLive
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