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Week 9 NFL Gambling Preview: Picks on Miami-Kansas City, Buffalo-Cincinnati and more!


Last week we did the impossible, we had a perfect 2-2-2 stalemate. Technically a losing week when you count in the juice. It was a roller coaster week and we are so close to breaking through. We had touchdown leads with Washington and New England early, but they couldn’t hold on. I’ll be traveling to New York on Saturday to take in Los Angeles against the Jets on Monday Night football, this article is going to come a little early.


Before we get to the picks, a reminder: We have partnered with DraftKings.



Now, to the picks.


Miami vs, Kansas City (Frankfort Germany)


Spread: Kansas City (-1.5)


Total: 50


We have gotten every European football game right so far. I have to attempt to make it 4-0 in the last international game of the year. I have gone back and forth on the side all week. When you have two of the NFL’s top offenses, don’t overthink it - take the over.


The Miami offense ranks 2nd overall in offensive EPA. Mike McDaniel has said in his press conference that he wants to give Tyreek Hill the ball. Hill is diving deep into the revenge narrative. Kansas City’s defense has been playing their best defense since Mahomes got there. But they are playing out of their minds and are due for heavy regression. Miami can move the ball on anyone.


On the other side, Miami’s defense ranks 27th in EPA. Kansas City is passing the ball at a top 3 clip once again. If Miami can advance early, this is going to be a track meet. The weather is going to be a shitshow with 90% chance of rain. I still think these offenses put on a show.


Give me over 50 in this one.


The pick: Over 50

 

Minnesota at Atlanta


Spread: Atlanta -4


Total: 37.5


We love quarterback uncertainty. Jaren Hall is making his first career start for Minnesota and veteran Taylor Heinicke takes over for Desmond Ridder at Atlanta. I like the mysterious notion of Hall here. He is going to be really good or terrible.


The good news is, Minnesota has a tremendous supporting group around him. Minnesota's offensive line ranks in the top 10 in pass block win rate and top 15 in stuff rate. Atlanta ranks in the bottom 25 in pressure rate so Hall should have time to make plays. Brian Flores has turned the script on the Minnesota defense. He is sending blitzes at a high rate and Heinicke isn’t a great quarterback under pressure.


The market has not adjusted to Minnesota’s growth on that side of the ball and we are going to continue to run with them-even with a back-up QB.


The pick: Minnesota (+4)

 

New York at Las Vegas


Spread: Las Vegas (-1)


Total: 37.5


The last time Las Vegas was good was when Rich Bisaccia filled in as interim head coach and led Las Vegas to the playoffs. Antionio Pierce can have that same effect. Unlike McDaniels, he seems to have respect for everyone in that locker room. Las Vegas is the more talented team.


They are going to play with a chip on their shoulder here. New York’s offense ranks 31st in offensive EPA. Las Vegas edge rusher Max Crosby will be able to apply pressure on the quarterback at will. Running back Josh Jacobs will run through a New York run defense allowing an NFC worst 4.9 yards per rush. Take Las Vegas here.


The pick: Las Vegas (-1)

 

Dallas at Philadelphia


Spread: Philadelphia (-3)


Total: 47


Last week, Jalen Hurts was extremely impressive in a come from behind road win against Washington. Dallas looked unstoppable against LA coming off the bye.


Still, Dallas playing in Jerry World, and Dallas playing on the road are two different teams. Dallas has played 10 points above expectations in all three home games. Dallas has had two poor road performances this year playing at Arizona and at San Francisco. They beat a bad New York team and Los Angeles gave their game away on Monday Night Football.


Therefore, put simply, Philadelphia is not going to lose this game. Dallas has struggled giving up explosive passing plays since Trevon Diggs has been out. Philadelphia ranks 3rd in the league in passing plays for 20+ yards. AJ Brown has tallied 939 yards over the first two months of the season.


Philadelphia is too explosive on offense and their defense will force Prescott into a costly mistake that changes the game.


Take Philly here.


The pick: Philadelphia (-3)

 

Buffalo at Cincinnati


Spread: Cincinnati (-1)


Total: 50.5


There is certainly some recent history between these two teams, first with the near-tragic Damar Hamlin game last season, before Buffalo's home playoff meltdown a few weeks later.


Now, heading into a mid-season, Sunday Night showdown, the perceptions between these two teams couldn’t be more different. Buffalo has not had a convincing win in a month. Cincinnati just got one of the best wins of the year winning at San Francisco. Cincinnati has won three straight since their 27-3 blowout loss at Tennessee.


Still, the stock on Buffalo has fallen too low. We are going to jump on Buffalo here. The Bills offense ranks 1st in EPA. Josh Allen has thrown for over 2100 yards and 17 touchdowns. The defense is still good, ranking 6th overall in EPA and ranking 8th against the pass. There is going to be slick snow to slow the Buffalo pass rush this time around. Buffalo has improved running the ball. That’s going to be a big X-Factor.


This is a statement game for Buffalo and they are able to get the win on the road here.


The pick: Buffalo ML

 

Los Angeles at New York (Monday Night)


Spread: Los Angeles -3.5


Total: 43.5


Finally, we get to talk about the primetime game I will be attending.


Before you scroll down and fully expect an LA pick - blink twice. As a fan, I will not take Los Angeles as a 3.5 point road favorite. Instead, I will side with the under here.


Both of these teams are horrible in their own ways. Los Angeles is awful on defense, New York is anemic on offense. One area LA has fared pretty well at is stopping the run. After finishing last in the NFL in run defense last season, LA ranks 10th in run defense EPA. A good counter to a New York offense averaging 4.5 yards per carry. Zach Wilson can’t move the ball on anyone. Despite how horrible they have been (30th in EPA), the LA passing defense has been average against mediocre quarterbacks- Wilson fits the bill.


On the other side, the New York defense will give Justin Herbert some fits. Herbert is still dealing with a broken finger on his non throwing hand. The New York secondary is giving up 5.7 yards per pass attempt. LAC may play conservatively on the road.


This is going to be a defensive struggle. Each team is playing for their playoff lives.


I think we are going to see an ugly Monday Night football game here.


I’m going to take the under in this one.


The pick: Under 43.5


Follow Austin on Twitter - @AustinMontgomeryLive



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