top of page

Week 7 NFL Gambling Preview: Picks on Chargers-Kansas City, New England-Buffalo and more


Credit: New England Patriots

It's that time of the week again; we've got another column for NFL Sunday.


The column is coming off another winning week. Let's keep the momentum going.


All of the lines are presented by DraftKings once again. Remember, first time customers can bet $5 on any game and get $200 in bonus bets instantly when they use code "TORRES." I encourage everyone to wager responsibly.


Without further ado, here are the picks.



Cleveland at Indianapolis


Spread: Cleveland (-3.5)


Total: 41


I hate trying to fade a team after backing them the previous week. After watching Indianapolis last week, I must fade them in this spot. Gardner Minshew ranks 24th in QB EPA. He needs to do better under pressure. Cleveland leads the NFL in defensive EPA and pressure rate. They have given up just 200 yards per game. We saw them neutralize San Francisco's dynamic offense.


Defense on the road travels, and this is a good spot for Cleveland's struggling offence to get back on track. Indianapolis ranks 26th in total defense and 19th in defensive EPA, allowing teams to score touchdowns in 57 percent of their red zone opportunities. Deshaun Watson has been activated to play.


The Colts have trailed at the half in two of their last three games. So we will take Cleveland in the first half.


The pick: Cleveland (-3.5)

 

Buffalo at New England


Spread: Buffalo (-8.5)


Total: 40


New England fans, welcome to mediocrity. New England is coming off its third straight loss, last week against Las Vegas. The Patriots have covered (and won) just one of their first six games. New England owns the league's worst point differential.


Now, they are facing. a Buffalo team that has won games by 28 (twice) and 34.


At the same time, Buffalo is also coming off a lackluster performance against New York. Buffalo won that game 14-9 and suffered several injuries on the defensive side of the ball. The Giants had 6 drives to get six first downs or more. This breathes hope into a New England offense that has struggled to move the ball all year.


When everyone thinks Buffalo is going to blow New England out of the water, that's when we take the ugly dog. The market can't get much lower for New England, and Buffalo's value is slightly inflated. So we are going to take New England and the points here.


The pick: Patriots (+8.5)

 

Arizona at Seattle


Spread: Seattle (-8)


Total: 44.5


Seattle is quietly one of the most complete teams in the NFL. They have struggled in highly variant categories such as red zone defense and third down conversion rate. They have been rated in the top 5 in defensive efficiency over their last three games. They have playmakers on all three levels of defense. Bobby Wagner has emerged as the league's best run-stopping linebacker. Devin Witherspoon has a top-three FF coverage grade, and Uchenna Nwosu ranks in the top 17 in pass rush win rate. If it wasn't for a slow defensive start, this would be a top 5 defensive unit. It's just how Pete Carroll likes it.


Meanwhile, the Cardinals are bad. They looked good at the beginning of the season. But the Cardinals lack depth, and injuries are catching up. Their defense ranks 27th in defensive EPA. Their offense needs to be better to consistently move the ball against Seattle's defense.


The line is high for a division game but needs to be higher. I'll take Seattle to win big.


The Pick: Seattle (-8)

 

Los Angeles Chargers at Kansas City


Spread: Kansas City -5.5


Total: 47.5


It's now or never for the Los Angeles Chargers.


Only three AFC teams finished with more victories than the Chargers in 2022, but through six weeks of games in 2023, Los Angeles owns a 2-3 record with more wins than only two AFC teams.


Now, Los Angeles has a 25% chance of making the playoffs and they have to play in Arrowhead against Patrick Mahomes? Kansas City has won five straight games. They are coming into this contest with a major rest advantage. Kansas City played last Thursday, while Los Angeles played on Monday Night. Finding another way to lose a primetime game catastrophically.


Kansas City owns a 4-1 record against Los Angeles in their last five matchups. Things could be looking better for Los Angeles.


I do like LAC to bounce back. While LA is 1-4 against KC, three losses came from one possession. Chargers are 5-1 ATS in their last six against the Chiefs. Justin Herbert has been playing well, and the Chargers rank in the top 6 in pressure rate over the last three weeks. LA's defense is playing better. I think Los Angeles will keep this game close.


The pick: Los Angeles +5.5


Follow Austin on Twitter - @AustinMontgomeryLive



Comments


bottom of page