Don’t look now, but we are coming off back-to-back winning weeks. Someone is getting hot, and it’s this guy. Winning back-to-back weeks in the NFL is pretty tough. I went deep into the research vault to get us EV + plays. We are in Mid-October, so we are finally getting a read on all the teams in the NFL.
This is a pretty interesting slate, and we are breaking down the London game once again and ending it on Monday Night Football between the Cowboys and Chargers.
Without further ado, here are the picks.
Column record 13-12
Baltimore Ravens vs. Tennessee Titans (London)
Spread: Baltimore (-4)
Total: 42
We are previewing another game in London and we are 2-0 so far in games across the pond! This is another situational play. The Ravens traveled to London early in the week on Monday while the Titans began their travel on Thursday.
This is a simple power rating play. Favorites are 24-17-1 ATS in London games all time. I like the Ravens here. They rank 5th in total defensive EPA. Ravens rank 1st in the NFL in yards per pass attempt allowed. The Titans will be without wide receiver Treylon Burks and Derrick Henry seems a step lower and the Tennessee offensive line is still bad.
On defense, the Titans have been stout against the run but terrible against the pass. The Titans are allowing 7.4 yards per pass attempt ranking 27th in the NFL. Lamar Jackson is going to put on a show in London. The Ravens have the better unit on offense and on defense. If the Ravens pass catchers can make some plays for the Ravens they will put up a huge number here.
Give me the Ravens.
The Pick: Baltimore (-4)
Minnesota at Chicago
Spread: Minnesota (-2.5)
Total: 43.5
Vikings closed -5.5 at Carolina two weeks ago. Chicago has been upgraded significantly since their first win on Thursday Night Football against Chicago. Remember last year, Chicago had a dominating win against the Patriots on Monday Night Football- then proceeded to lose their next 14 games.
Point being: I’m not saying the Bears are going to go on a historic losing streak again. But let's not forget the Bears are bad.
They rank 31st in defensive EPA and rank 32nd against the pass, and he Vikings rank 4th in the NFL in yards per play (5.9). Even without Justin Jefferson, but they still have plenty of weapons on the offensive side of the ball. The Vikings turnover luck is due to
regress in a positive direction towards them.
I can’t trust this Bears team after one win. Give me the Vikings to win comfortably on the road.
The pick: Minnesota (-2.5)
Indianapolis at Jacksonville
Spread: Jacksonville (-4)
Total: 44.5
The Jaguars have won their last 11 home games against the Colts. That streak ends Sunday afternoon.I think this is a bad spot for them. They are coming off back to back games in London.
Former Jaguar quarterback Gardner Minshew will get the start for the Colts. I think the Colts have a much higher floor when Minshew has the reins.
Meanwhile, the Jaguars are coming off one of their best wins in years against Buffalo and everyone's excited about them. But let’s pump the brakes on Jacksonville. They entered this week ranking 26th in the NFL in Net Yards per Play, while the Colts came in at 22nd. The Jaguars rank 21st in EPA on the offensive side of the ball and Indy also outranks them there coming in at 12th.
We should get more usage out of Jonathon Taylor in Indianapolis’s offense. I think there is a pretty good chance Indianapolis upsets Jacksonville here but I’m taking the four just to be safe.
The pick: Indianapolis +4
Philadelphia at New York
Spread: Philadelphia (-6.5)
Total: 41
The Philadelphia Eagles look to remain undefeated this season and unbeaten all-time against the New York Jets Sunday in East Rutherford, N.J. The Eagles are 3-0 on the road so far this year and they have won 11 straight on the road dating back to last year.
Philly QB Jalen Hurts ranks 10th in the NFL with 1,262 passing yards in five games this year, averaging 252.4 per game with a 67.3% completion percentage and six touchdowns against four interceptions.
The Jets meanwhile have covered their last two games against the spread and are coming off a gritty-not-pretty 31-21 win at Denver that gave offensive coordinator Nathaniel Hackett an emotional victory over his former team. Breece Hall broke off a 72-yard touchdown run, and Bryce Hall clinched the outcome with a 39-yard fumble return TD with 29 seconds left. Zach Wilson seems to be improving and the Breece Hall has fully been activated in the run game.
But we are going to ride the Jets defense to keep this game close. The Jets defense held Patrick Mahomes and Josh Allen to passer ratings of 63 and 64- their lowest marks of the season. The Jets defense ranks fifth in defensive EPA against the run, which is something Philly loves to do. The Jets are really big on the defensive front. Quinnen Williams' 12 tackles ranks 12th most among all defensive lineman in the NFL and the Jets rank in the top 6 in defensive line yards and stuff rate.
As for the Jets offense, it really isn’t promising. Credit Zach Wilson, he is improving week to week. He is getting more comfortable in the offense because it’s more simplified. The Jets are going to commit to the ground game. They will be able to do just enough to keep it close.
The bet: Jets +7
Dallas at Los Angeles Chargers (Monday Night)
Spread: Dallas (-2.5)
Total: NA
The Cowboys are playing their second straight primetime game in California. There should be an ample amount of Cowboys fans at SoFi Stadium, just like they were in Santa Clara last Sunday.
In that game, the Cowboys got absolutely annihilated on national television. While the Chargers do not have the talent or coaching staff of the 49ers, I think they have a chance to do something similar. The Cowboys defense weak point is the secondary. On paper they are great against the pass because of their pass rush. The 49ers showed if you can get the ball out quick, you can absolutely shred this defense. Herbert’s release time is top 5 in the NFL. The Chargers offensive coordinator Kellen Moore is very familiar with the scheme and personnel of the Cowboys defense.
You can also say that the defense will be very familiar with the offensive philosophy of the Chargers. The Chargers coach has preoperational edge here. The Chargers are coming off a bye. They tend to do well in the first half.
So that’s what we will take, Chargers first half ML to start off with a lead Monday night.
The pick: Chargers first half ML
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