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Week 4 NFL Best Bets: Jets-Chiefs, Ravens-Browns and much, much more

The NFL Column is back for another run. We got back on track winning our Thursday Night pick against Detroit and are looking to get back in the win column again. The column is 5-6 ATS on the year.

This is the week we finally get into the green. We got 5 games to preview on the slate, are previewing the early game in London, a divisional matchup between the Browns and Ravens and much more. Without further ado, here are the picks.

Jacksonville vs. Atlanta (Wembley Stadium, London)

Spread: Jacksonville (-3)

Total: 42.5

Death, taxes, and the Jacksonville Jaguars playing a regular season game in London. The Falcons meanwhile, are playing their third London game and returning for the first time since 2021.

Both of these teams were supposed to have breakout seasons. Jacksonville was the heavy favorite in the AFC South. They started out 1-2 and got dominated by the Texans at home last week. Atlanta was a dark horse in the AFC South and currently sit at 2-1. However, their performance hasn’t produced great results. The Falcons ranked 23rd in offensive EPA and have just been average in the running game. Jacksonville ranks third in defensive EPA against the rush so far. Desmond Ridder is going to have to make some plays in Atlanta and is going to consistently move the ball. Jacksonville is playing to Atlanta’s strength as well. The Falcons are giving up just 5.3 yards per pass attempt ranking 6th in the NFL.

I think the team more likely to break through is Jacksonville. I get the better quarterback and a team that is hungry to bounce back. Trevor Lawerence has struggled over the first few games. I trust the Jacksonville franchise quarterback to find his rhythm here. Atlanta got dominated playing their first real test of the year. I think Jacksonville takes care of business in London.

The pick: Jacksonville (-3)


Baltimore at Cleveland

Spread: Cleveland (-2.5)

Total: 38.5

Another tough AFC North divisional contest. The Browns have been playing great football. Their defense has been historic. They rank first in EPA and lead in the league in a lot of major categories such as fewest points allowed (10.6), yards per play, (3.2), and third down conversion rate (19.1%). The Ravens defense hasn’t been too shabby ranking sixth in defensive EPA and second in success rate.

The main factor here is Lamer Jackson and he has dominated the Browns. Against Cleveland, Jackson has a 66.3 percent completion percentage while averaging 7.6 yards per attempt and 14 touchdowns. The Ravens offense ranks 11th in overall EPA and fifth running the ball. The three offenses the Browns have faced all rank outside the top 20 in offensive efficiency. The Ravens offense gives the Browns trouble because they run a lot of big personnel and Jackson’s mobility negates the Browns pass rush. The Browns have been great but I love the idea of backing Lamar as an underdog here.

The bet: Ravens +2.5


Los Angeles at Indianapolis

Spread: Pick 'Em

Total: 45

The Colts are 2-1 after upsetting the Ravens on the road. LA is coming off a tough three-point loss against Cincinnati on Monday Night Football. The Colts' front seven has been one of the best in football. They rank fifth in the NFL in adjusted sack percentage and they are controlling the line of scrimmage. The Rams have been able to move the ball, but they are having a hard time getting push averaging 3.7 yards per carry and they can’t protect quarterback Matthew Stafford.

Colts quarterback Anothony Richardson is definitely a wildcard after coming off the injured list with a concussion. I think the Colts can rely on their run game with Zack Moss. The Rams are allowing 4.5 yards per carry but they have only faced 23 rushes per game.

LA has't had a physical game script the way the Colts are going to run the ball. Zack Moss has the potential to have a huge game. I think the Colts win ugly controlling the time of possession and making life miserable for the Ram’s offense.

The pick: Colts ML


New York Jets at Kansas City (Sunday Night Football)

Spread: Kansas City (-8.5)

Total: 41

Call me crazy, I’m betting the Jets one more time. I know, Zach Wilson is one of the worst quarterbacks to make double digits starts and the Jets offense has scored 10 points or less through three games. Meanwhile, the Chiefs defense has held the opposing offense to 10 points or less in the last two. Wilson ranks last in the PFF starting quarterback rankings. The Jets rank dead last in offensive EPA.

Now you have to face Patrick Mahomes. The handicap can be, Zach Wilson - bad, and Patrick Mahomes - good.

But I like the spot here. Robert Saleh is going to have his guys fired up to play. The Jets defense ranks ninth in yards per play and they have done a good job holding teams to field goals. The Jets offense there has to be something right? Wilson sounded good at the podium. You have the Travis Kelce and Taylor Swift distractions. This is a game where it seems too easy, you have to go backwards and take the dog. This is pure betting instincts. If the Jets can be blown out, you can call me an idiot later.

The pick: Jets +8.5


Teaser of the Week: Titans +8.5 and Dolphins +8.5

Every week, I’ll have some type of teaser that gets us from 2 to 7. The first pick is pretty simple. The Dolphins rank first in EPA and are the best team in the NFL. The Bills are great in their own right. In the playoffs, the Dolphins played the Bills tough with Skylar Thompson at quarterback. The Dolphins have the recipe to make the game close and I’ll take the eight points.

This week is do or die for the Titans and I think Ryan Tannehill knows it. Joe Burrow is a shell of himself with the calf injury. The Bengals rank dead last in the NFL averaging 4.0 yards per play. They aren’t running the ball effectively and Joe Burrow is missing his mobility. The Bengals have had trouble stopping the run. I think Derrick Henry can have a huge game.

Lock in this teaser at -120

Follow Austin on Twitter - @AustinMontgomeryLive


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