It's Wednesday - and you know what that means, it's time to make some Week 4 college football picks, baby!
That's right, it's that time - and sadly we're coming off our truly frustrating week of the season. After beginning the year 8-3 against the spread in Week 1 and 2, we went 2-4 last week to fall to 10-5 on the year.
Still, the show must go on and we have five picks for the big games this weekend.
As always, the odds are provided by FanDuel Sportsbook. And also remember, for full breakdowns of the entire weekend in college football, always make sure to follow our "College Football Betting Podcast."
Now, onto Week 4.
No. 24 Illinois at No. 22 Nebraska (-8.5): Friday, 8:00 p.m. ET, FOX
So I'd call this the "rare, Friday night Top 25 matchup" but well, we had a Top 25 matchup last Friday night as well.
In that game Kansas State bloodied Arizona at home, and frankly, I don't expect this one to be much different.
Listen, Illinois is a solid team, but let's not oversell what they've done so far. Their best win was over a now 1-2 Kansas team, in a game where Kansas outgained them, the Jayhawks had more first downs and averaged like six yards per carry. Illinois won because - to their credit - the Illini forced four turnovers, something I don't expect to happen on Friday night.
That's because among the many reasons Nebraska is improved is because they're simply taking care of the football. A team that had a staggering -17 turnover margin (31 total turnovers) last year is now +3 in turnover margin. Add that in with an elite run defense, and an ability to jump out on opponents, get leads and sit on them and you have a better understanding of why the Huskers are 3-0.
End of the day, I've actually seen arguments that Nebraska is a bit underrated, ranked in the Top 25 and at 3-0. I tend to agree.
Huskers 28, Illini 10.
NC State at No. 21 Clemson (-20.5): Saturday, 12:00 p.m. ET, ABC
This one will probably look like a bit of a surprise pick, but there are a few factors here.
One, NC State quarterback Grayson McCall got injured last week and has since been replaced by true freshman CJ Bailey. Bailey was effective in his limited time against Louisiana Tech, but well, that was Louisiana Tech. This is Clemson, in front of 81,000 screaming fans.
Beyond that, is it at all possible that maybe, just maybe Clemson is finally starting to turn a corner with Cade Klubnik at quarterback and Garrett Riley at offensive coordinator?! In their last game they put over 700 yards of total offense and 66 points in a dominant win over App State. Meanwhile, Klubnik himself had by far his best game going 24 of 26 for 378 yards passing.
Add in that this NC State defense hasn't been all that good - giving up big chunk plays against Western Carolina and Louisiana Tech, in addition to getting punked by Tennessee - and I'm rolling with Clemson here.
Talks of Dabo Swinney's demise have been greatly exaggerated, my friends.
No. 11 USC (-5.5) at No. 18 Michigan: Saturday, 3:30 p.m. ET, CBS
If you've been following these picks for a few years now, you know that I've always been an admirer of Michigan's program. They were my preseason pick to win the title last year (when it wasn't all that popular) and I rode with them through the ups and downs of last year's weird season all the way to the title.
They were a deserving champ a year ago.
They also don't even resemble the same program less than a year later.
First off, everyone will make a big deal out of Michigan making the quarterback move to Alex Orji, but I just don't see it as that interesting. At best, it feels like a last ditch effort to spur on an offense that hasn't really got going. At worst it reminds me of Alabama last year, when the fan-base clamored for Ty Simpson and Nick Saban started him against South Florida just to prove he wasn't the guy and get fans off his back.
Yet as bad as the Michigan offense is, what's much more concerning is the defense.
Listen, I know they were playing Texas two weeks ago, and in my opinion, Texas is the best team in the country. But it wasn't just that they lost, but the manner in which it happened. There were missed tackles, bad pursuit angles and just an overall sense that they really didn't know what they were doing.
Bluntly, I think Lincoln Riley is going to carve up that undisciplined Michigan defense, and the all-of-a-sudden awesome USC defense will do its part to completely slow down the Wolverines on offense.
It'll get ugly in Ann Arbor for a second time in three weeks.
USC 31, Michigan 10.
Arkansas at Auburn (UNDER 56.5): Saturday, 3:30 p.m. ET, ESPN
Admittedly, this is my least favorite bet of the weekend - so proceed with caution. Also, if you can find a first half line for an Arkansas team that starts hot, against an Auburn team that starts slow, that'd probably be my recommendation.
However, since there are no first half lines out now - let's instead roll with the under.
For Auburn, it's the second start for Hank Brown, and my guess is that just like the first game, Hugh Freeze doesn't put too much on his shoulders. Last week the Tigers had 268 yards of total rushing, and on the season, Auburn has the second slowest tempo in the SEC.
Then there's Arkansas.
Look, the Taylen Green story started awesome, and I'll admit that we all got a little too excited about him after his first game and a half of football at Arkansas. But last week against UAB proved he is still very much a work in progress, as he completed just 11 of 26 passes and missed a couple of easy throws in the end zone.
Look for Arkansas to lean on the legs of Ja'Quinden Jackson and Green, and Auburn to do the same with Jarquez Hunter.
This game has 24-21 written all over it. Just not sure which side it will be.
No. 6 Tennessee at No. 14 Oklahoma (UNDER 56.5): Saturday, 7:30 p.m. ET, ABC
Ahh, it's the game that we have, quite literally been waiting for since the SEC announced its 2024 football schedule a year ago.
It's Tennessee-Oklahoma. The Sooners' SEC opener. Josh Heupel's return to Norman.
But here's what I'm not sure many people - at least not me - considered: Josh Heupel is returning to Norman with a potential title contender.
By now you've probably read and seen everything you need to about this game, but it doesn't change one simple fact:
Tennessee isn't just a good offense. They don't just have a great QB.
They have an elite team.
That's right, in addition to Nico Iamaleava balling out early, what we've learned is that this is a complete group, as the Vols rank third nationally in rush offense and also have a Top 5 defense. Don't tell me they've "only" played Chattanooga, NC State and Kent State. When you outscore your opponents 191-13 to start the season... you're good.
As for Oklahoma, well they are a quiet 3-0, with some really good traits and some more concerning ones.
The defense has been mostly solid so far, actually leading the SEC in sacks (11), with 23 TFL's to go along with it. The problem is the offense, where a beat o-line is protecting a young quarterback and Jackson Arnold is completing just 60 percent of his passes early.
Add it all up and I love the under here.
As much as I think Tennessee is going to blow Oklahoma out (I absolutely think it's on the table), Oklahoma's defense, the home crowd and chance of bad weather have me worried enough where I'd rather take the UNDER.
Oklahoma's defense keeps this game close early, but Tennessee's defense is the story of the game.
Tennessee wins, but the UNDER is the best bet here.
Last week: 2-4
Season: 10-5
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