It's Wednesday, and you know what that means - it's time to make our Week 4 college football picks.
We're coming off a solid winning week where we grinded our way to a 3-2 finish, in a pretty slow slate - which is also what makes this weekend so unreal.
The slate... is... LOADED.
Ohio State-Notre Dame. Florida State-Clemson. Colorado-Oregon. Ole Miss-Alabama. On and on the great games go.
So with that, let's get to the Week 4 picks.
Also, as always, make sure you're subscribed to the College Football Betting Podcast - where do deep dives on all the big games. And subscribe to the YouTube channel as well.
Now, here are our official picks:
No. 5 Florida State (-2.5) at Clemson (UNDER 56): Saturday, 12:00 p.m. ET, ABC
You know it's already been a weird college football season when we have five matchups of ranked teams on Saturday, and Florida State-Clemson isn't one of them. You also know it's an especially weird year when this game gets bumped to the noon ET window, so that ABC can show a Colorado game at 3:30 ET
(Oh, and based on the insane Colorado TV ratings, it was absolutely the right move)
So yeah, it's been a weird year - and I think you could legitimately argue that no one has more at stake this weekend than Clemson and Dabo Swinney.
Yes, there are all the big-picture ramifications, trying to stay alive in the ACC and College Football Playoff races after a season-opening loss to Duke. But this game is also about much more to Dabo: It's about proving his way of building a college football team still works.
By now, you know the narrative on Dabo and Clemson: Dabo hates the portal. Dabo hates NIL. On and on. Meanwhile, you could argue that no one has navigated this new era better than Florida State, which has essentially built a national championship contender almost exclusively off transfers. Quarterback Jordan Travis came in from Louisville. Star receivers Keon Coleman and Johnny Wilson from Michigan State and Oregon. Star edge rusher Jared Verse from Albany.
Bluntly, Florida State looks more like Clemson at this point than Clemson does.
That's also why, even though Clemson has a lot at stake, I just don't see them winning this game.
Seriously, look at this game and tell me where Clemson has the definitive edge, or more talent. In my opinion, Florida State has the best quarterback, wide receivers, offensive line and secondary. You could argue that Clemson's front seven is at least as good as Florida State's, but that Clemson front will also be going against the best offensive line they'll face this season.
So even if you believe Dabo and Clemson are going to have a throwback performance, what is the pathway to winning? Even if the defense steps up, are they going to be able to run the ball at all? And will their receivers be able to get separation?
Ultimately, I'm not as anti-Dabo as most, but it feels like he's outmanned pretty much everywhere.
Barring a million Florida State turnovers, or Jordan Travis' injury from last Saturday being much worse than we realized (Mike Norvell said he's fine) I can't see the path towards a Clemson win.
Florida State is victorious, final score 24-14.
Take the Seminoles and the UNDER.
Kentucky at Vanderbilt (+14): Saturday, 12:00 p.m. ET, SEC Network
First off, this feels like the ultimate trap game for Kentucky. The Wildcats are coming off three straight home games against bad competition (sorry Ball State, Eastern Kentucky and Akron fans, it's true) and have Florida at home next weekend in what will be a rockin' Kroger Field.
Yet in between, they have to go play a desperate Vanderbilt team coming off a last second loss? Not to mention that the biggest edge Kentucky would normally have - that 90 percent of the stadium would be filled with blue - is negated by the fact that Vandy's stadium is under construction? Meaning that basically nobody has a home field advantage in this one?
Not ideal.
Finally, there is the fact that Vanderbilt is kinda, sorta built to keep this one close.
They're not good necessarily, but they can throw the ball and Kentucky's secondary has been shaky, to say the least early. Did you know the Wildcats are allowing opponents to complete 70 percent of their passes this year, which is - by far - the worst mark in the SEC?
Add in that Mark Stoops tends to coach especially tight on the road and this one has "Kentucky wins ugly" all over it.
Give me the Cats 27-20 in Nashville.
Auburn at Texas A&M (-7.5): Saturday, 12:00 p.m. ET, ESPN
Alright this is it. This is Jimbo Fisher's last stand.
No, I'm not talking about the fact that if he loses this game, Texas A&M is probably headed towards another mediocre season, and the man could very well lose his job. Although that's true too.
No, I'm talking about the important stuff - this is the last time I'm backing Jimbo Fisher if he lets me down. If they can't win and cover here, it's over for the two of us.
Sorry, Jimbo it's the truth. You've got one more shot with me.
Why do I like the Aggies in this game?
One, I just think they're further along in their development. Conor Weigman is in his second year getting major snaps at quarterback and Texas A&M just has more returning guys than pretty much anyone in the SEC. Oh, and they're at home. As bad as that Miami performance was a few weeks ago, they're back in College Station here.
More importantly, I also believe that while Auburn will get there under Hugh Freeze - I really believe that - this team is just a major work in progress at this point. Understand Freeze did unreal work in the portal this off-season because he had to, but this is basically an entirely new offense, with a new QB, new wide receivers and brand new offensive line. Freeze readily admits that the skill position guys aren't where they need to be and it's not like the offense lit the world on fire two weeks ago at Cal, barely breaking 200 yards of total offense.
Well, there's a big difference between playing in front of 20,000 fans at Cal (15,000 of them being Auburn fans) and 100,000 in College Station.
Add in that the temperature is expected to be right around 100 degrees (so, like 130 on the field) and I think the Tigers wear down late.
Texas A&M 27, Auburn 10 here.
No. 15 Ole Miss at No. 13 Alabama (UNDER 57): Saturday, 3:30 p.m. ET, CBS
Come on, you knew it wouldn't be a real college football article if we didn't talk about the weirdest quarterback battle in the history of the sport, right?
Just as a refresher, Jalen Milroe started Games 1 and 2, taking a loss in the second. He was replaced by Tyler Buchner against South Florida, only for Buchner to be benched for Ty Simpson in the second half. Then, after not playing AT ALL against South Florida, Nick Saban announced that he was the starter this week.
It's all led to one of the weirdest weeks we've ever seen in Tuscaloosa where many wonder what's going on. Was Milroe - deemed by most who cover the team to be one of the nicest kids on the Bama roster - secretly suspended last week? Was there a secret mutiny in the locker room after Milroe was benched, and the o-line purposely didn't block for Buchner and Simpson?
I did a whole segment on this on Wednesday's Aaron Torres Pod, but bluntly, I don't buy any of the conspiracy theories.
What I do believe is that Nick Saban knows the following four things:
His offensive line can't pass block
His defense is really good
Jalen Milroe can move the ball with his legs
The new clock rules are to his advantage
Yes, I believe that Nick Saban has essentially realized the only way for this particular team to win games is to play in the ugliest way imaginable. Put the ball in Milroe's hands, run it is as often as you can, lean on your defense, and win 14-10, 24-3, 7-6 and games like that.
And I believe that's the exact philosophy he will use to get to 1-0 in the SEC this weekend.
The bottom line is that Ole Miss has been a strange team this year. While their offense statistically looks good (they rank in the Top 11 nationally in total offense and scoring offense) the numbers are skewed by putting up big stats late.
Against Tulane, Ole Miss was tied 17-17, before outscoring them 20-3 in the fourth quarter to pull away. It was the same last week against Georgia Tech. A game that was 17-3 midway through the third quarter all of a sudden had a final of 48-23 after Ole Miss put up 31 points in the final 20 or so minutes of the game.
So yeah, I don't trust Ole Miss to move the ball much against what has actually been a pretty good Alabama defense (remember, they held Texas to 13 points through three quarters). And I certainly don't expect Alabama to move the ball much because, well, we've all watched Alabama.
Give me the Crimson Tide in an ugly 27-17 win, with the under cashing easily.
No. 14 Oregon State at No. 21 Washington State (+3/ML): Saturday, 7:00 p.m. ET, FOX
One, I know I said it up top, but you know it's been a weird college football season when it's late September and Oregon State vs. Washington State is a matchup of ranked opponents. Strange times indeed.
Even stranger is that these are two Top 25 teams that literally don't have a home beyond this season. And I mean, aren't we all kinda rooting for the Beavers and Cougars (keep your inappropriate comments to yourself please) to have success this season?
I know I am. And I also know that after taking the Cougars outright against Wisconsin two weeks ago, I'm backing them again here.
That's right... TORRES LOVES HIS COUGARS!!!
The bottom line is my Cougars are a darn good football team. Not only did they beat Wisconsin, but you know that Colorado State team that gave Colorado fits last weekend? Yeah, Washington State put up 50 on them, in Fort Collins, in a dominant win.
More importantly, I just trust quarterback Cam Ward, especially going head-to-head with DJ Uiagalelei.
That's right, DJU is now the quarterback at Oregon State (a lot of you forgot that, didn't you) and honestly, he kinda looks like the same guy he was at Clemson. Last week against San Diego State he finished 14 of 30 passing, and the game before against UC-Davis he was 5 of 13 passing. That's 44 percent passing against two pretty bad teams.
Bottom line, I get the better quarterback and I get MY COUGARS at home.
We're rolling with Washington State to win outright here.
Arkansas (+17.5) at LSU: Saturday, 7:00 p.m. ET, ESPN
Since there are still two mega games we haven't previewed yet, I'll try to keep this one quick.
To put this as simply as I can, I don't believe Arkansas was as bad as the final score indicated last week against BYU. And I don't believe LSU was as good as the final score looked.
I watched the entire LSU game (shout out to the mediocre 12:00 p.m. ET window) and as I'll explain below, Mississippi State is bad. And poorly coached. Again, more below, but no quarterback should complete 30 of 34 passes, without getting a hand on him, on the road, in the SEC like Jayden Daniels did. I believe that an Arkansas front that has been excellent through three games with 12 sacks total can get to him.
I also don't believe Arkansas is as bad as losing to a BYU team which is a touchdown underdog at Kansas this weekend would make people think. The Hogs were able to move the ball, but kept getting undone by brutal penalties (14 total). Not having Rocket Sanders certainly didn't help.
Well, there's a chance Rocket Sanders is back this week, but even if he isn't, KJ Jefferson should be able to throw the ball on a beat up and inexperienced LSU secondary.
The Hogs plus the points, in a big rivalry game, is one of my favorite bets of the week.
Mississippi State at South Carolina (-6.5): Saturday, 7:30 p.m. ET, SEC Network
Again, we'll keep this one brief. But as mentioned above, I just don't think Mississippi State is very good.
The bottom line is this: I feel for Mississippi State. I feel for their fans, coaching staff and administration, in everything they had to deal with following the passing of Mike Leach. RIP to the Pirate, you are truly missed.
What matters here is we lost Leach, but from a football perspective, the school made a mistake in hiring Zac Arnett the defensive coordinator to replace him. I've watched most of the Bulldogs last two games, and they should've lost to Arizona at home, before getting blown out by LSU at home.
Here's the concerning part though: Arnett went completely away from Mississippi State's identity on offense, abandoning the Air Raid. That's bad enough, but here's the problem - the defense is somehow worse too. Last week, Jayden Daniels completed 30 of 34 passes and Malik Nabers had 239 yards receiving... most all on the same play that Mississippi State never figured out how to defend.
Point being, if you're willingly ready to give up your offensive advantage, you better be lights out on defense. Mississippi State is neither right now.
South Carolina isn't great, but Spencer Rattler has quietly turned into a really good college QB and Shane Beamer always has his team ready to play.
Gamecocks roll here.
The other two big games (Stay Away)
So, this is admittedly a gambling article, and I never make picks on games that I would never bet myself.
Well, there are two mega games that I honestly have no feel for and won't be betting.
But I'd be remiss if I didn't mention them here, with some thoughts.
Again, I won't be betting either of these games.
No. 18 Colorado at No. 10 Oregon (-21): Saturday, 3:30 p.m. ET, ABC
I've spent forever looking at this game, and can't find a side that I love. Oregon is going to win, and in my opinion convincingly.
I'm not sold on the cover though.
The truth is, the fact that Colorado is 3-0 at this point is kind of a miracle. Did you know that entering this game, they rank 125th in total defense and 122nd in rush defense this season? Not great. Nor is the fact that they have given up the second most sacks in all of college football?
It's also worth noting that they really haven't been that good in each of the last two games. Nebraska coughed the ball up a million times allowing Colorado to pull away, and last week, the Buffaloes had a grand total of 14 points going into the fourth quarter. Remember too, that one of those scores came on a pick-six.
So, I do think that Colorado is going to struggle here, but at the same time, what do we really know about Oregon? It's hard to judge anything from Mickey Mouse wins over Portland State and Hawaii and in their one marquee game, they gave up a lot of yards and a lot of points to Texas Tech.
I think Oregon wins, but could I see the scenario where it's 38-14 late in the fourth quarter and Colorado puts up a score late for the cover?
I could.
So yeah, I'm just staying away.
No. 6 Ohio State (-3) at No. 8 Notre Dame: Saturday, 7:30 p.m. ET, NBC
This is a funny one, because all off-season I've been hyping the Irish, and I am a guy who historically hasn't really been a fan of Ryan Day.
So naturally, I've got to back the Irish at home, right?
Honestly, I'm not so sure.
I watched some of that Ohio State-Western Kentucky game last week (what can I say, I had money on the over), and while it was only Western Kentucky came away impressed by two things: One, running back TreVeyon Henderson once again looks like the guy he did two seasons ago, when he set all sorts of freshman rushing records at Ohio State. Two, the defense is as fast and athletic as I can remember it.
Again, I know it was "only Western Kentucky" but this looks like as complete an Ohio State team as we've seen since the 2019 Justin Fields team.
At the same time, they do still have Kyle McCord going into the toughest environment he's been in, with Notre Dame having the clear edge at quarterback.
I've gone back and forth a million times, first thinking Ohio State would win, then talking myself into Notre Dame, and for a minute, I thought maybe the under was the right play.
Instead, I'll just hang out, watch and enjoy rather than lose money with no strong feel for this one.
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