Well people, it's Wednesday - and you know what that means: It's time to make some college football picks, baby!
That's right, we're back, and can't lie, coming off a pretty strong start to the season. Last week we finished 4-1 in our picks against the spread, after finishing 4-2 in Week 1. A little 8-3 (72 percent) start to the season ain't all that bad.
With that said, we know how gambling works - the second you start to take victory laps the gambling Gods punch you in the mouth. So, we are back and focused on being the best version of ourselves in Week 3.
(If that ain't great coach speak, what is?!)
Ok, enough silliness. Time for the Week 3 picks.
As always, the lines are provided by FanDuel. And oh by the way, make sure to subscribe to our College Football Betting Pod, to get the picks as soon as they go live.
Let's do this!
No. 20 Arizona at No. 14 Kansas State (OVER 58.5): Friday, 8:00 p.m. ET, FOX
So how about this for a rare game: A Friday night, Top 25 out of conference matchup, featuring two teams in the same league.
To which I know you're thinking.... SAY WHAT TORRES?!?!
That's right, this is in fact technically an out of conference game because it was scheduled before Arizona officially left for the Pac-12 for the Big 12. Meaning that it won't count in the Big 12 standings, which weirdly could have a major impact on the conference title stretch as we get deeper into the season.
Anyway, let's get to this game, where both teams come in off umm - how do I say this delicately - not the best performances. Kansas State barely survived last week at Tulane, winning 34-27, while it's hard to know exactly what to make of Arizona. They won their opener 63-39, only to win an ugly one last week against Northern Arizona 22-10.
So yeah, neither team looked good last week. And both have a lot of questions.
At the same time, while I know there are questions, one thing I don't doubt: The ability of both teams to move the football on Friday night.
For Kansas State, the Wildcats were able to run the ball right at Tulane last week, with 215 yards and nearly seven yards per carry. That's probably not a great sign for an Arizona team which gave up 210 rushing yards to New Mexico in Week 1. Eww.
Then there's Arizona, which has maybe the most deadly QB/WR combo in college football with Noah Fifita and Tetairoa McMillan? Those two dudes have been playing together since high school, McMillan accounted for over 300 yards alone in the receiving game in Week 1, and well, I'm sorry, I just don't see that passing attack getting stopped.
In the end, I'm not sure who wins. But I'm not sure either can hold the other under 30.
Give me the OVER here.
No. 5 Alabama at Wisconsin (UNDER 50.5): Saturday, 12:00 p.m. ET, FOX
Let's get to Saturday, and a very simple question: Can the real Alabama please stand up. That's right, after smacking Western Kentucky 63-0 in their opener the Crimson Tide struggled last week against South Florida.
Don't be fooled by that 42-16 final score. The game was 14-13 going into the fourth quarter and was just 21-16 with seven minutes to go.
So why were things so close against South Florida? Bluntly, it was a lot of penalties and turnovers, which weren't helped by an injured and depleted offensive line. Starting tackle Kadyn Proctor hasn't played yet this year, while the other starting tackle Elijah Pritchett missed time last week. It forced All-American guard Tyler Booker to move to a position he's never played.
That's also why I think Alabama wins comfortably here, but in a relatively low scoring game this week.
The bottom line is that Kalen Deboer has said that he believes both tackles could be good to go this week. Because of it, expect a less-sloppy, more Alabama-looking performance in Madison.
At the same time remember that the Crimson Tide head into a bye next week, before hosting Georgia on September 28th. Not sure if you've heard, but the Dawgs are still pretty good at this college football thing.
Point being, you really think Deboer cares about style points here?
Or you think he's trying to get up early, milk the clock, avoid any more injuries and get ready for Georgia in two weeks?!
Give me Alabama 27, Wisconsin 10 and a Tide vitory.
No. 16 LSU (-6.5) at South Carolina: Saturday, 12:00 p.m. ET, ABC
Funny story.
So, after South Carolina curb-stomped Kentucky last week, I did a quick reaction video where I discussed everything that went wrong for the Wildcats. In the process of doing that, I mentioned that the performance "wasn't about South Carolina being some really good team - just Kentucky being awful."
As you can imagine, South Carolina fans were NOT happy with that.
Well, I bring it all up to say this: Isn't it interesting that after a dominant road win on national TV, South Carolina returns home where... they are nearly a touchdown underdog?!
Maybe they really just aren't that good. And beyond that, I really do just like the matchups for LSU here.
For South Carolina, their strength on defense is the pass rush. It's really good, but the problem is they're going up against maybe the best offensive line in college football. Meanwhile, LSU's weakness on the defense is in the secondary. But is LaNorris Sellers really the guy to expose them? Respectfully, I'm not sure he is.
Ultimately, this game may be close for a half, but LSU pulls away late for a 34-21 win on the road.
Texas A&M at Florida (UNDER 46.5): Saturday, 3:30 p.m. ET, ABC
People, let's go ahead and give a quick shout out to my man Billy Napier.
The guy spent all off-season convincing Florida fans that things would be different in 2024, only to absolutely get steamrolled in Week 1 by Miami. After calling out his fans (yes, the ones who rabidly supported him heading into Week 1) he had a gift from the football Gods fall on his head, when an unfortunate injury to Graham Mertz led to star freshman DJ Lagway getting the start in Week 2 against Samford.
While it was "only Samford" below is a quick smattering of what Lagway is capable of when stepping between the white lines.
So naturally, what did Napier do once the fan-base is sucked back in? Well, he announced that he'll be playing both QB's on Saturday.
Look, I know Napier is doing it for the right reasons (mostly out of respect to Mertz), but it's just idiotic. For starters, playing Lagway - and him being good - is really the only way Napier is able to keep his job. But even beyond that, it just doesn't make sense to keep rotating QB's, as it doesn't allow either of them to get into a rhythm.
So, I guess that's a long way of me saying I don't expect Florida to score many points here, but what about Texas A&M? It's been a weird few weeks for Connor Weigman who simply does not look like the same dude pre-injury as he's struggled to move the ball down field. The good news is, at least last week, it didn't matter because the run game was so good.
Therefore, when you take one quarterback situation that's a mess, and another QB that has struggled in back-to-back home games and put him on the road, what do you get: Not a lot of points, that's what.
Give me the UNDER in Gainesville.
No. 1 Georgia at Kentucky (+24.5): Saturday, 7:30 p.m. ET, ABC
So I know what everyone is probably thinking:
"Torres, did you watch that Kentucky-South Carolina game last Saturday? It was more embarrassing than that Shannon Sharpe IG Live video that leaked earlier this week."
First off, great, topical Shannon Sharpe reference.
But two, let's talk about this game.
Because while Kentucky isn't winning, I do think they can keep it close enough to cover.
First off, as bad as Kentucky got smacked last week, it's worth nothing the defense wasn't bad. They gave up right around 250 yards to South Carolina, a week after giving up 130 against Southern Miss before the game was called off in the third quarter because of weather.
Beyond that, this is a game that historically has been pretty hotly contested when it's played in Lexington. The last two times these teams met at Kroger Field, the final scores were 16-6 and 14-0, not exactly beat downs in either game.
Add that it's at night, Kentucky fans will show out - even as frustrated as they - and that Georgia is heading into a bye and doesn't want to put too much on tape before Alabama in two weeks, give me the Dawgs in a 24-10 win.
Indiana (-3.5) at UCLA: Saturday, 7:30 pm. ET, NBC
Allow me to be the first person in America to go ahead and jump on the Indiana football bandwagon.
Hoosier football fever... do you have it?!?!?
Ok, maybe we're getting a bit ahead of ourselves, but remember, Indiana hired Curt Cignetti in the off-season. He was the coach who led James Madison to an 11-1 record last season, and you can see in two games that this team is much tougher and will be much more competitive. The 77 points the Hoosiers put up in Week 2 probably didn't hurt my argument.
On the other side, there's UCLA and well I just don't know what to make of a Week 1 game where they were largely outplayed by Hawaii. The run defense was good, but other than that, UCLA didn't show all that much in a game they easily could've lost.
Expect MY Hoosiers to come out to the Rose Bowl and pick up a signature win.
Picks last week: 4-1
On the season: 8-3
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