Week 2 College Football Picks: Michigan-Oklahoma, Ole Miss-Kentucky AND MORE (Presented by Circa Sportsbook)

Credit: Bryce Underwood/Instagram

Well folks, it's Thursday and you know what that means: It's time to make some Week 2 college football picks!

So I'll admit: Week 1 didn't quite go as planned, as the picks ended up just 2-5 against the spread. Not great. But hey, my weekend could've been worse. At least I'm not Kalen Deboer, right?

(Don't answer that)

So with that, let's move onto this week's picks and a quick caveat: With a smaller slate of marquee games, we're limiting things to just five picks this week focusing on the biggest games.

As always, the lines are presented by our official casino and hotel sponsor - Circa Sportsbook and Casino. Remember, in addition to the world's largest sportsbook in Las Vegas, Circa recently opened a brand new sportsbook at Mint Kentucky Downs in Franklin, Kentucky. If you're anywhere in the area make sure to go check it out.

While we're here, also make sure to download the "College Football Betting Podcast" which you can catch on Apple, Spotify and YouTube.

Now, let's get to the Week 2 picks presented by Circa Sportsbook!

Iowa at No. 16 Iowa State (UNDER 41.5)

Look, sometimes when making these picks, these previews deserve long, drawn out explanations. They deserve detailed looks at every angle on why I picked a certain side.

Sometimes though, the oldest adage in the book, KISS - "Keep it Simple, Stupid" - applies.

This is one of those times. So let's keep it simple and ask a simple question: Umm, have you watched these two teams play each other?

In the last three years, here are the final scores of this rivalry showdown: 20-19, 20-13 and 10-7, meaning the highest combined total in those three years was 39 points. If we factor in the previous three games before it, only once (in 2021) did the number go over 41.5 - and it was just barely, in a 27-17 Iowa win, and 44 points hitting the scoreboard in a shoot out.

Sometimes you have to put aside everything other than common-sense. This is one of those times.

Take the UNDER here.

Baylor (+2.5) at SMU: Saturday, 12:00 p.m. ET, CW Network

First off, random thought: I've doing these picks going on 7-8 years now, and I'm pretty sure this is the first time we've previewed a game airing on the CW Network.

So shout out to the CW. Shout out to the ACC. Look at us making history here in Week 2, people!

As far as the game is concerned, well a couple thoughts here.

One, I was a little lower on SMU coming into the season and Week 1 didn't really do much to change that opinion. Yes, the Mustangs beat something called East Texas A&M 42-13. But first off, it's... FREAKIN EAST TEXAS A&M! Two, the 42-13 final score is deceptive considering that SMU had a pair of pick-sixes and a punt return for a touchdown.

While we should probably credit the defense and special teams for stepping up, take out non-offensive touchdowns and that is a 21-13 game. Not great.

Two, it's just hard for me to be down too much on Baylor.

Yes, they lost at home in Week 1 to Auburn. But if you watched that game (and if you're reading this article you probably did) you know that was basically a one-score game until the final minutes. And that was after Auburn scored on a special teams touchdown. Baylor actually outgained the Tigers on the game and if a different things broke their way they easily could've won.

With their backs up against the wall after an 0-1 start, I believe Baylor gets the win here. But feel free to play it safe and simply take the points.

No. 20 Ole Miss at Kentucky (UNDER 50.5): Saturday, 3:30 p.m. ET, ABC

How about this for a Week 2 twist: We have an SEC opener in Lexington, that also doubles as... a REVENGE GAME BABY!

That's right, never forget that in last year's SEC opener for the Rebels (which was actually the Wildcats' third league game) Kentucky stunned Ole Miss in Oxford. It turned out to be Kentucky's only SEC win all season, and a result that hurt Ole Miss all year long. There's a very compelling argument that if Ole Miss doesn't lose to Kentucky they are in the College Football Playoff at 10-2.

Looking ahead to Saturday, while revenge will be on everyone's mind, defense and ball-control will be the name of the game. That's because as much as we heard things changed at Kentucky this off-season (you probably heard about "Motivated Mark Stoops!") the reality is that the product last Saturday looked very much the same as it has the last decade. Kentucky beat Toledo 24-16, needing 14 fourth quarter points to pull away. In the process, they also ran the ball essentially twice as many times as they threw it (43 compared to 23) and controlled the clock winning the time of possession battle.

Well, a simple question: If Mark Stoops has spent the last 10 years winning games on defense and field position and did the same in a Week 1 game against Toledo, why would we think things will be different against Ole Miss?!

I certainly don't.

Which is why I expect an Ole Miss, but more importantly an easy under.

Fun fact: Only three Kentucky games all regular season went over 50.5 last year, one of them against FCS team Murray State. Maybe more surprisingly, thanks to one of the nation's top defenses, only two of Ole Miss's SEC games went over 50.5 as well.

This is a long-winded way of me saying that this game has 24-14 written all over it and an easy under hit.

USF at No. 13 Florida (-17.5): Saturday, 4:15 p.m. ET, SEC Network

While teams like LSU, Ohio State and Miami were the big winners of Week 1 - did anyone get a more surprising result than USF on the opening night of the season? The Bulls hosted Boise State, straight off a College Football Playoff appearance and smacked them around in a 34-7 win.

But while the victory was great, dig deeper and I'm not sure how well it holds up. First off, Boise was traveling cross-country, playing in the heat and humidity of Tampa. They also clearly took a step back post Ashton Jeanty. And more importantly, the Broncos actually outgained USF in that game, but unfortunately three turnovers cost them.

As a matter of fact, looking back it's sort of wild: Boise put up nearly 400 yards of total offense. Had 10 more first downs than South Florida... and lost by 27.

To quote Ron Burgundy when Baxter ate the wheel of cheese: I'm not even mad. I'm actually kind of impressed.

As for Florida, well yes, they "only played Long Island." But a 55-0 win, in which you give up 86 total yards, put up 500 yards of your own and DJ Lagway comes out of the game saying "I need to be better" after completing 15 of 18 passes with three touchdowns, is kind of exactly what you wanted to see out of the Gators on Saturday.

While there's some backdoor potential here for USF - especially with Florida opening SEC play next week at LSU - I like the Gators to win and cover the 17.5.

No. 15 Michigan at No. 18 Oklahoma (UNDER 45.5): Saturday, 7:30 p.m. ET, ABC

Alright, let's get to the big one, the only matchup of Top 25 opponents this weekend and transparently two of the more intriguing big, national debuts of two stars: Yeah, we're talking Michigan and Oklahoma.

More than we're talking Michigan and Oklahoma, we're really talking "John Mateer and Bryce Underwood."

That's right, this will be the first big, national stage for two quarterbacks who were as talked about as much as anyone in the country this off-season. What's so intriguing is how different they are. Underwood of course is the NIL darling and was the No. 1 QB in America who decided to turn down the SEC and instead become the face of his home-state program. Mateer is the opposite, a former three-star recruit who spent three years at Washington State, slowly moving up the depth chart until he became an elite difference-making star, and eventually a portal superstar this off-season.

Yet as much as the intrigue is around the quarterbacks in this game, the defenses will be the different in my opinion.

While it's hard to gauge either too much off their opening opponents (shout out to Illinois State and New Mexico - good job, good effort!) big picture I think we both know who these defenses are.

On the Oklahoma side, to their credit they were a Top 20 defense a year ago - even as the offense completely unraveled around them. And there's no reason to think they'll slow down this year with Brent Venables back calling plays. Michigan too was a Top 20 defense and the No. 5 ranked run defense in America in 2024. While a lot of the stars are gone, plenty of talent remains.

So to me this will be a defensive struggle, especially when you factor in that there is still a lot of work for both offenses.

With Michigan, you have to wonder just how willing they will be to let Underwood loose in his first big, hostile road environment. Conversely, as exciting as Mateer is, Oklahoma's Week 1 win was far from an offensive masterclass, as the Sooners rushed for a grand total of 103 yards in a win over FCS Illinois State, averaging a not-so-great three yards per carry.

Again, the QB's will be the story. But the defenses will be who defines this game. The under feels like the right side here.

Last Week: 2-5

Overall: 3-5