Week 16 NFL: Preview and Picks on Miami-Dallas, Baltimore-San Francisco and much, MUCH MORE
- Austin Montgomery
- Dec 23, 2023
- 5 min read
Christmas season and football, the best combination to close out 2023. We get a full Sunday slate on Christmas Eve and a three-game slate on Christmas Day that we will break down in full.
For those that will have time to enjoy another NFL Sunday I got some plays and I will break down every game on Christmas Day.
As always, the odds are provided by DraftKings Sportsbook - where new customers can bet $5 on any game and get $150 in bonus bets instantly - when you use code "TORRES."
Without further ado, here are the picks.
Green Bay at Carolina
Spread: Green Bay (-4.5)
Total: 37.5
Green Bay is sitting right outside the playoff picture. They have a big opportunity to face a 2-12 Carolina team.
For Green Bay, it starts - like Carolina - with their first-year starter at quarterback, Jordan Love. Love has thrown for 3,300 yards (11th in the NFL) and 25 touchdown passes (5th in NFL) and has shown some poise/ game breaking ability with his legs.
The problem is, with Green Bay, you can’t trust the defense. They rank 29th in defensive DVOA and 26th in EPA. They can’t stop the run, the secondary has not performed up to expectation with lead corner Jaire Alexander battling nagging injuries all year.
Meanwhile, there's Carolina... which simply is not good. They are the worst in the league in terms of DVOA and EPA. I think there has been some steady improvement with Bryce Young. Carolina should be able to run the ball at will.
I think the total on this game at 37.5 is short. Green Bay should be able to move the ball. I think we are going to see Bryce Young’s best game as a rookie.
Hell, Tommy Devitio won player of the week facing this defense. Young can put up some numbers.
Forget the sides, take Green Bay and Carolina to go over the total.
The pick: Over 37.5
Dallas at Miami
Spread: Miami (-2)
Total: 49.5
I have faded Miami a lot this year. I’ve regretted a lot of it. I’m going back to the well, because this is too good of a spot for Dallas here.
I’m nervous since all the wise guys seem to be handicapping this side. Miami has injuries on their offensive line. They are going against the best pass rush they have faced all year. Tyreek Hill is still banged up on the outside. Miami is going to have to rely on their power run game to keep things balanced.
The problem is, I just don’t see how they are going to move Dallas’s front seven off the ball. Tua struggles with pressure, and he will face a lot of it. Mike McDaniel is going to need to pull a couple of tricky maneuvers to get Miami big plays. Dak Prescott will bounce back after a poor performance against Buffalo.
I trust Dallas’s defensive line to be the most dominant unit in this game. Take Dallas to win here.
The pick: Dallas ML
New England at Denver
Spread: Denver (-7)
Total: 35.5
Easily the best play of the weekend. Denver is one of the more overrated teams in the NFL. They have benefited from capitalizing on short fields and flaky turnovers. They rank 27th in yards per drive on defense and 23rd in yards per drive on offense. They can’t rely on variance heavy plays.
New England ranks ninth in the NFL in total defense. New England’s offense showed some good things with Bailey Zappe under center against Kansas City. I like New England in this spot.
I think they keep it close if Zappe avoids the big turnover, leading to an easy New England cover.
The pick: New England (+7)
Las Vegas at Kansas City (Monday)
Spread: Kansas City (-10.5)
Total: 40.5
The atmosphere in Arrowhead should be lively on Christmas Day.
Las Vegas is coming off a 63-21 home against the Chargers two Thursdays ago. They have the rest advantage and I think they are going to come out pumped during this game. There have been multiple reports that this team loves interim coach Antonio Pierce. Pierce needs a statement win to make a solid argument that he is the man for the job, as Vegas has lost three out of its last four.
A Las Vegas victory on Christmas Day is going to spring some excitement for Raider Nation
I like Las Vegas’s defensive line and they have been good against the pass, 11th in the NFL. Vegas needs playmakers Josh Jacobs, Davante Adams, and Jackobi Meyers to help their rookie QB move the ball on offense.
I like Las Vegas in this spot, take them to cover.
The pick: Las Vegas (+10.5)
New York at Philadelphia (Monday)
Spread: Philadelphia (-13.5)
Total: 43.5
Wise guys have been adamant about fading Philly. I have talked about how they have been dominant in yards differentials. They have not looked good.
That was on full display in their Monday Night road loss against Seattle.
And after that brutal loss, I think this is the spot to back them. You will have a motivated Philly team hoping to get back on track.
Meanwhile, you have to question if there is any motivation for New York’s players to play on Christmas on the road? Philly has dominated New York winning by double digits in four out of their last five. Tommy Devito won’t be able to enjoy his mom’s home cooked chicken cutlets. Players will be missing spending time with their families.
You have a hot mad Philly team who has been disrespected by the media and even their own fan base. They're going to prove they are still a dominant NFC contender. They will win this game by three touchdowns.
The pick: Philly (-13.5)
Baltimore at San Francisco
Spread: San Francisco (-6)
Total: 47.5
In my mind, this is going to be a Super Bowl preview. Baltimore is the best team in the AFC and San Francisco is the best team in the NFC. Baltimore boasts the best defense in the NFL - they rank first in total defense, fifth in EPA, second DVOA, and second in yards per play. Most analysts believe San Francisco has the best collection of talent on that side of the ball. They have quarterbacks who can make big plays. Brock Purdy is front runner for MVP. It’s going to be a fantastic matchup overall.
Lamar Jackson is 15-1 ATS as an underdog when he is getting a field goal or more. Jackson is 19-1 against the NFC straight up. Baltimore’s style of offense is hard to prepare for if you haven’t seen it as a defense. San Francisco will be without defensive lineman Javon Hargrave and Arik Armstead. Baltimore is relatively playing at full strength.
Ultimately I just don’t see a huge gap between these two teams. If San Francisco was -3 I would take them. But lying just under a TD is too much to give. This game is going to live up to the hype. The winner wins by a field goal. Take Baltimore and the points.
The pick: Baltimore (+6)
Follow Austin Montgomery on Twitter - @AMontgomeryLive
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