We are entering the final month of 2020 and we are in Week 13 of the NFL season. Damn where has the time gone. With the final stretch of the year underway, we are looking to finish strong. Despite back to back losing weeks we still have a profitable record of 39-31-1 good for a 55 percent winning clip. We have gotten some extremely bad breaks the last couple weeks but after a full Thursday of betting fast, I am seeing the board very clearly now.
And I’m feeling so good in fact that I want to give you free money. Remember, the picks are sponsored by our friends at MyBookie, and if you go to MyBookie and use promo code “TORRES” they will double your first deposit. So you want to bet $50 on Chiefs Sunday Night, MyBookie gives you $100 to play with. That’s MyBookie, promo code “TORRES.” You can sign up here.
Without further ado here are the picks.
Cleveland Browns at Tennessee Titans
Line: Tennessee (-6)
We got a big matchup with huge AFC playoff seeding implications. The 8-3 Cleveland Browns face the 8-3 Tennessee Titans in one of the better matchups of the day. This game is a measuring stick for a Browns team that has overachieved this season, and may be the most important start for Baker Mayfield in his career. Cleveland has been really underappreciated in the market after a narrow win against Jacksonville and an ugly win against the Eagles. Many people have been saying the Browns are the worst 8-3 team in NFL history, which should've provided good bulletin board material in Cleveland this week.
So while everyone is selling Cleveland, we are going to buy them in this spot. I think this is a great spot for the Cleveland offense to be successful. The Titans defense ranks 30th in third down coverage rate, 30th in adjusted sack rate and pressure percentage, 28th in overall team defense DVOA, 27th in pass DVOA, and they are average against the run. As a Baker believer, we are going to see the former Heisman winner's best game in the most pressure spot. The Browns offensive line ranks third in the NFL in line yards, and I expect them to be able to control the line of scrimmage.
The Browns defense star Myles Garrett back in the lineup here as well. The Tennessee offense has been rolling with King Henry, but I trust the Browns to get the necessary stops.
I love this number and trust Kevin Stefanski. Celebrate with Browns twitter - take Cleveland
The pick: Browns +6
Jacksonville Jaguars at Minnesota Vikings
Line: Minnesota (-10)
Last week we saw the Vikings give up two defensive scores and muffed a punt to prevent us from getting a cover. After watching that game, I don’t think you can justify making the Vikings a double digit favorite against anybody. Especially against a Jaguars team who has covered three out of their last four games as a touchdown underdog.
Mike Glennon will be getting his second start and he will be getting DJ Chark back in the lineup against a poor Vikings secondary. Dalvin Cook got banged up last week, and I think the Vikings will be more conservative with him in this game.
There is really not much you can do but plug your nose and take the points with Jaguars here.
The pick: Jaguars +10
Los Angeles Rams at Arizona Cardinals
Spread: Los Angeles (-2.5)
We all know the Jared Goff play book: When he’s got a clean pocket he's good, when he’s pressured Goff is bad. On Sunday, Goff is not going to be pressured often against this Cardinals defensive front that has struggled since Chandler Jones went on the IR.
On the other sideline, Cardinals' quarterback Kyler Murray was put on the injury report with an injury to his throwing shoulder. This impacts Murray's ability to throw the deep ball and able to make plays with his legs. Both huge parts of the Cardinals offense. Last week Murray averaged a season low 5.0 yards per passing attempt. The Rams defense matches up tremendously against the Cardinals offense and mobile quarterbacks in general. Jalen Ramsey should be able to limit Deandre Hopkins production.
The Rams should be able to consistently run the ball against a Cardinals defense that ranked 23rd in yards per rush. Sean McVay and Jared Goff have historically owned Arizona going 6-0 over the past three years. I believe that dominance continues on Sunday.
The Rams are by far the more superior team and you can get them at less than a field goal.
Take LA to beat the Cardinals on the road.
The pick: Rams (-2.5)
New England Patriots at Los Angeles Chargers
Line: New England (-1)
I don’t think we’ve seen a coaching mismatch like Bill Belichick against Anthony Lynn, maybe ever.
Belichick is a football mastermind that resembles the great master of war Sun Tzu. While Anthony Lynn operates more like the French generals during World War II. It still blows my mind, that Lynn and the Chargers ran the ball in the waning seconds with no timeouts after hitting a big play last week against Buffalo. Following that loss, Lynn is now 4-16 in his last 20 one possession games. Now you are expecting him to beat Bill Belichick in a must win game? Sorry it's not going to happen.
Additionally, the Patriots have played solid football as of late. The Patriots are rated higher than the Chargers in overall team DVOA, EPA, and the overall team grades at Pro Football Focus. New England should be able to to dictate the line of scrimmage on the offensive side of the ball, as the Chargers run defense ranks 32st in rush defense DVOA and Damien Harris should be able to run the ball down the Chargers throats.
Then defensively, Bill Belichick has been notoriously brilliant against rookie quarterbacks. Herbert has been good, but even the Herbester will not be ready for what Bill Belichick throws at him. The Chargers will not be able to take advantage of the Patriots vulnerable rush defense, and I don’t trust Herbert having to play hero ball against one of the best secondaries in the NFL.
This pick just seems too obvious to me. If Lynn outcoaches NFL’s top mastermind, I could live with that.
The pick: Patriots (-1)
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