It's Thursday and you know what that means - it's time to make some Week 13 college football picks!
And truthfully, these are dark times - as for the first time in months (literally) we are coming off a losing week. The good thing is, that much like teams in the 12-team College Football Playoff era, all we have to do is shake it off, rub some dirt on our wounds and get back to work.
That's right there's a lot of football still ahead, and on the season we aren't doing all too bad - hitting at 39-21 on the year, good for a cool 65 percent. And the good news is, I actually feel great about this week's board.
So with that said, let's dive into this week's picks.
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Now, to the picks:
No. 5 Indiana at No. 2 Ohio State (UNDER 51.5): Saturday, 12:00 p.m. ET, FOX
It's the big one, Saturday, noon ET on FOX - and raise your hand if in the summertime you had this one as a Top 5 matchup with playoff ramifications.
Now put that hand down, because you're a filthy, rotten liar.
That's right, a playoff berth is on the line here, and all anyone has tried to do all week long is tear down Indiana's resume. But let me ask you this: How worried should Buckeye fans be with the news that a second starting offensive lineman was lost to injury this season, as center Seth McLaughlin is out with an Achilles injury.
Because of that, I actually like the UNDER here of 51.5.
First off with Indiana, look, they're a great story. I believe in them more than most. But this Indiana offense was slowed down by the team that most closely resembles Ohio State's in size, speed and personnel two weeks ago in Michigan. So, I'm not totally sure that the Hoosiers will move the ball on the Buckeyes.
At the same time, when the Buckeyes have the ball, how aggressive Ryan Day will be with those o-line injuries mounting? Especially against a Hoosier defense which is the best statistically they've seen all year (yes, better than Penn State's).
Ohio State wins, but we go well under the number is a 24-20 type victory.
No. 9 Ole Miss at Florida (UNDER 55.5): Saturday, 12:00 p.m. ET, ABC
So first off, let me say: I'm happy the Florida Gators got their moment last week. To Billy Napier's credit, his team has actually been playing well since the UCF game back in late September, but hadn't had their breakthrough moment. Well, they got it last week against LSU.
Unfortunately for them, I don't see another one coming this week against Ole Miss.
That's because as good as great as the LSU win is, Ole Miss is a different beast, especially up front. Which is concerning because - as great as DJ Lagway is - Florida's turnaround these last few weeks have not only been about him but also being much better in the run game as well.
Sadly, I don't see that running game really being able to make a dent against Ole Miss - which is the best run defense in the SEC. That puts more on Lagway's shoulders. And as good as he's been this year, he's still completing under 60 percent of his passes on the season.
Honestly, I see this game playing out a lot like the Ole Miss-South Carolina game a few weeks ago. The Rebels defense smothers the Gators offense, and the Ole Miss offense does enough on the road to get the win.
Give me something like a 28-10 Ole Miss victory, and the under hitting with ease.
Kentucky at No. 3 Texas (-20.5): Saturday, 3:30 p.m. ET, ABC
I'll be quick here, because admittedly there are bigger and better games to discuss on Saturday's slate.
First off, I'm not worried about Texas' stagnant performance against Arkansas last week. The Hogs still have some fight in them, they were at home against a rival and playing for bowl eligibility. Plus, as crazy as it sounds, that was probably the most hostile road environment that Arkansas has played in since Week 2 at Michigan. The only other road game the Longhorns had played in that stretch was at Vanderbilt.
Therefore, I expect a performance Saturday much similar to what we saw two weeks ago when they hosted Florida and destroyed them.
As for Kentucky, well, they don't do anything well on offense and while their defense is solid, doesn't it kind of feel like they've quit on the season? Mark Stoops is already openly talking about portal priorities (while deflecting questions about whether he'll retire after the season) and this whole thing gives me a big "let's just get this season over with and start getting ready for next year" vibe.
My only concern is that Texas calls off the dogs early in preparation for Texas A&M next week, but they still get a 38-10 type home win.
No. 14 BYU at No. 21 Arizona State (-3.5): Saturday, 3:30 p.m. ET, ESPN
So the biggest story in the Big 12 is clearly Colorado's ascendance and what it means for the Big 12 and College Football Playoff chase.
But at the same time, can we show a little love to these two schools too?
BYU and Arizona State were picked to finish 13th and 16th respectively in this league to start the season. They now enter this game with a combined 17 wins and the winner will have the inside track at the Big 12 title game. The loser is still headed to a season beyond its wildest dreams in August (and in BYU's case isn't even necessarily out of the Big 12 or playoff picture either).
With that said, I'm rolling with the Sun Devils here and it's not for the reasons you think.
Yes, Arizona State has the home field advantage, but there are a ton of BYU fans still expected at Sun Devil Stadium Saturday. And yes, BYU is coming off a loss. But truthfully, they didn't even play poorly. And could've and maybe should have won that game.
Instead, the reason I am taking Arizona State is that this is simply a bad matchup for BYU. The way the Cougars have beaten teams this year is pretty straightforward: They forced a crap ton of turnovers (22, near the top of all of college football) and hit big plays on offense, one of the nation's top teams in explosive plays.
Well, guess what Arizona State does well: They are exceptional of taking care of the football, turning the ball over just six times this season (Top 10 nationally). And they also rank in the Top 10 of fewest truly big plays allowed of 30+ yards or more.
This is a great matchup for Arizona State, and I fully expect them to win outright and cover.
No. 16 Colorado (-3.5) at Kansas: Saturday, 3:30 p.m. ET, FOX
Let me start off here by saying one thing: Shame on me. Shame on Torres!
To my credit I was early on the "Colorado might be good" train, and took them to cover against Kansas State, Cincinnati, Texas Tech and Arizona. All were profitable. Most of the covers weren't even close.
Then last week, the Utah line was all the way up to 11.5, I got spooked and stupidly took the under instead. After all, that Utah defense was the best Colorado had seen all year... and even if they won it was set to be close.
Ah yeah, didn't happen. Colorado won, Colorado covered, and they hit the over by themselves.
Still, it taught me a very valuable lesson: Don't bet against Colorado. And certainly, don't take their unders.
The truth is, this offense is just so darn explosive they can make up ground too quickly against pretty much any defense in college. Remember, last week Shedeur Sanders literally threw a pick on the opening play, Colorado didn't run the ball well... and they still put up 49 points on the Big 12's best defense.
Kansas is playing well and an absolutely worthy opponent. But this Colorado offense is just too much.
Give me the Buffs somewhere in the 37-21 neighborhood.
No. 7 Alabama at Oklahoma (UNDER 46.5): Saturday, 7:30 p.m. ET, ABC
Alright let's get to the late games, and let me start by saying this: As bad as Oklahoma's season has gone their defense has remained solid across the board. The Sooners still rank in the Top 25 nationally in total defense, kind of a monumental feat considering how much they are asked to be on the field. And they're Top 20 in run defense. They also are second in the SEC in TFL's and are still making a ton of plays in the backfield.
Then there's Alabama and let me ask you a question: What is this Alabama offense at this point? Look, the LSU win was awesome, but Jalen Milroe also literally had almost 200 yards rushing, averaged 15 yards per carry and had four touchdowns.
I'm not saying that's not amazing - it is. But is it sustainable against one of the better teams in this league?
Alabama will win in Norman, but this has a 20-6, defensive-slug fest feel.
No. 15 Texas A&M at Auburn (+2.5): Saturday, 7:30 p.m. ET, SEC Network
Yes, I'm wrapping this week's picks with a bang - and taking Auburn to pull off the upset.
There are really two stats on Auburn that low key blow me away and I bet you don't know: One, for as bad as Payton Thorne was early, do you know he's thrown just one interception since October 1st? He's actually been pretty good with the ball the last six or seven weeks.
And two, you know Auburn has a Top 15 defense? Part of that is simply because they play such a ball control offense that they aren't on the field as much, but DJ Durkin and his defense probably deserve some credit.
At home, on Senior Night I'm taking the Tigers to pull off the upset.
Last Week: 2-3
Overall: 39-21
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