Well folks, it's Thursday and you know what that means: It's time to make some college football picks!
It's Week 12, and the picks keep rolling - as we had another winning week last Saturday to improve our overall mark to 37-19 on the season. That's a cool 66 percent, and I guarantee there is no one anywhere giving out weekly picks that's hitting at that percentage, this late in the year.
Before we get started, a quick reminder - to make sure you're following the College Football Betting Pod - where were' giving out as good of information as anyone in the space. You can find it on Apple, Spotify or our new YouTube page.
Now, to the picks. All lines are provided by FanDuel.
Utah at No. 17 Colorado (UNDER 46.5): Saturday, 12:00 p.m. ET, FOX
I mentioned up top that our picks are sitting at 37-19 on the season, and transparently it feels like half those wins have come simply by riding Colorado. We saw weeks ago that they were being undervalued by Vegas, and rode them to covers against Kansas State, Arizona, Cincinnati, Texas Tech on and on.
Well, it appears as though Vegas has finally caught up as they are a comfortable double-digit favorite here, so for the first time in a long time we're going to stay away from the point total and instead take the under.
Transparently, taking the under in any game featuring Shedeur Sanders, Travis Hunter, LaJohntay Wester and this high-speed Colorado offense is terrifying. But it's a testament to two things: Even while Utah has struggled, they've still played elite defense. And that Colorado has quietly turned into an elite-ish defense themselves.
From the Utah side, even in the midst of a five-game losing streak without Cam Rising, the Utes haven't given up more than 27 points in any of those games. They are also the best pass defense Colorado will have seen all season.
On Colorado's side, they're quietly one of the most improved units anywhere in college football, going from 130th nationally a year ago in total defense down to 68th. The Buffs are also giving up close to 100 yards fewer per game this season and have a ferocious defensive line that leads the Big 12 in sacks and is second in tackles for loss.
I think Colorado wins, but the number gives me pause. Give me a 27-14 Buffs victory, with the under hitting.
No. 3 Texas (-13.5) at Arkansas: Saturday: 12:00 p.m. ET, ABC
If you've followed the picks all year you know that I absolutely loathe taking road favorites. I just think we all underestimate how hard it is to win on the road in college football, let alone a place that can get as crazy as Razorback Stadium, especially for a game like Texas. As Steve Sarkisian said this week "I think Arkansas fans hate us more than they like themselves" and I've yet to see any Arkansas fan really argue it.
But even in a rivalry game, I do think this is the right side.
From the Texas side, not only are they a good team - but I actually think they match up pretty well with the Razorbacks. The Razorbacks do admittedly have a Top 10 offense in college football, but Taylen Green is banged up, and even when healthy has been turnover prone. That's bad news against a Texas team that has the No. 1 pass defense in college football, a Top 30 run defense and leads the SEC with 16 interceptions this season.
Then there's Arkansas, which has the worst pass defense in the SEC. We saw what Jaxson Dart and Ole Miss were able to do to it a few weeks ago, and I truly don't see things getting much better Saturday against Quinn Ewers and this Texas offense.
Razorbacks' fans have seen two straight blowout home losses (LSU and Ole Miss) and I'm afraid they may be in for another one.
Texas 37, Arkansas 20
Nebraska (+8.5) at USC: Saturday, 4:00 p.m. ET, FOX
They say in the "SEC it just means more" but let's be honest, hasn't the Big Ten been acting a little like the SEC of late. Ohio State fans are arguing with TV networks over start times, Michigan is trying to use eight figures to flip the No. 1 QB in America... and Nebraska is about to have a guy calling plays who wasn't on staff two weeks ago!
That's right, welcome to the Dana Holgorsen era in Lincoln, where two weeks after he was sitting on his couch, munching on Caulipuffs and watching football, he'll now be in the press box in a must win Big Ten game.
Hey, anything to keep Dylan Raiola happy, right? Probably so.
So the question now is, why take Nebraska? And the answer is simple: Should USC be favored by over a touchdown against anyone right now?
To their credit, I know the Trojans do have two blowout home Big Ten wins (Wisconsin, Rutgers), but they themselves have turmoil with a quarterback change. And how much should we really expect from a back-up QB against what is still one of the best defenses in college football at Nebraska.
This might be the "Dysfunction Bowl" but it's not so dysfunctional that I see a Trojan double-figure win.
No. 1 Oregon at Wisconsin (+13.5): Saturday, 7:30 p.m. ET, NBC
I mentioned above that I really do hate betting big road favorites, and you know what another betting no-no is: Going against Oregon. Dan Lanning's squad has been an absolute wagon this year, with basically every game outside of Boise State and Ohio State absolute blowouts.
So yeah, I don't love being on the other side here, but I think it's the right play.
And more than anything, it's a situational play.
In this strange season where every team has gotten two byes, did you know that this is the Ducks' eighth game? That's got to right around the longest streaks of consecutive games anyone has dealt with this season. Beyond that, this is their third trip across country throughout this stretch, with the previous two (at Purdue, at Michigan) coming in the last month. And they have a bye coming next week, so you know they're ready to get home and relax.
Wisconsin meanwhile isn't great, but Luke Fickell didn't forget how to coach, and I think the Badgers do enough to keep things close at home.
Ducks win and head into the bye, but it's close enough for a Wisconsin cover.
No. 7 at No. 12 Georgia (UNDER 47.5): Saturday, 7:30 p.m. ET, ABC
So the story all week has been the health of Nico Iamaleava, but honestly whether he plays or not, this pick doesn't really change in my opinion.
Tennessee has had an elite defense all year, currently rank in the Top 5 nationally and even when Nico has been fully healthy Josh Heupel has implemented a clock controlling offense that limits the QB from making bad plays and relies on the defense and run game. That won't change whether Nico is fully healthy, at 50 percent or not playing at all.
Therefore, for this game to go over it would need one of two things to happen: Either Tennessee's defense to play its worst game of the year or Georgia's offense to play its best game. Considering that they currently rank second to last in SEC and Carson Beck has had one of the great regressions we've ever seen.
It's hard to pick against Georgia at home, but give me the Dawgs 21-17, in a slow-scoring SEC slugfest.
Last Week: 3-2
This season: 37-19
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