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Writer's pictureAustin Montgomery

Week 1 NFL Picks: Thoughts on Bills-Jets, Dolphins-Chargers, Bengals-Browns and more


Credit: Cincinnati Bengals

The NFL season is back baby! Your boy is back with weekly NFL picks. I am hoping to lead you to have a winning season of NFL bets. Last year’s column went 52-42-2 ATS and had a (55 percent) winning percentage against the spread. Let’s hope for a third straight winning season shall we.


I am going to post at least five sides/totals every single week. This year, I entered the column picks into the Circa Millions NFL Pick em contest.


You know I’m serious. I


know you guys came here for some advice on NFL action, let’s get to it.


San Francisco at Pittsburgh


Spread: San Francisco (-2.5)


Total: 41.5


This is a game where the betting focus seems to be on the total. Stormy weather will continue to impact most of the Northeast on Sunday. The total has dropped significantly. And in on and off the field news, Nick Bosa will be back for the 49ers after finalizing his massive deal. Due to a lack of reps in training camp, he will be on a limited snap count. George Kittle is also questionable on the offensive side for the 49ers.


I’m really high on the Steelers offense. They match up better against the 49ers than you might think. They added pieces to the offensive line. Kenny Pickett has shown growth in camp and the preseason. The Steelers young receivers are getting better. Kenny Pickett ranked in the top 5 in adjusted accuracy on deep balls last season. Which is surprising since the Steelers ranked outside the top 20 in explosive play percentage. It’s going to be up to Pickett and Johnson to make those big grabs. The 49ers allowed the eight most yards to receivers last season.


Then on the defensive side, Pittsburgh has a different unit when TJ Watt is healthy. The Steelers have been a stout team against the run. Remember, this is Purdy’s first game back since offseason shoulder surgery. In less than circumstantial weather, I don’t see Purdy being able to throw the ball with a lot of success.


The Steelers are an undervalued team here. We are going to buy the Steelers up a half point to get the three and see if Pittsburgh can pull an early week upset.


The bet: Pittsburgh +3 (-125)

 

Cincinnati at Cleveland


Spread: Cincinnati -1.5


Total: 47.5


We got a classic midwestern AFC North Ohio showdown.


Joe Burrow heads into a divisional clash with Super Bowl aspirations, yet interestingly, the Browns are the one team Burrow has not had much success with. In five games against Cleveland, Burrow is 1-4 with 10 touchdowns and 5 picks. Cleveland’s pass rush, specifically Myles Garrett, has been a problem for Burrow. Burrow comes into week one hampered with an injured calf. I expect the Browns pass rush to disrupt Burrow once again. The Browns added two impactful defensive front players in Dalvin Tomlinson and Za’Darius Smith. With an improved front seven and the mess that continues to be Cincy’s O-Line- compounded with an injured Burrow, spells mayhem for the Cincinnati offense in week one.


Offensively, the Browns are incredibly interesting. DeShaun Watson had his worst year as a pro in his first season in Cleveland. Watson was not allowed to practice with the team in training camp and was simply thrown into the fire after sitting out of football for two years. Now with an offseason of work to mesh with his lineman and receivers do we get the Watson we get in Houston, or is the National Championship winning quarterback truly past his prime? I think Watson gets a solid matchup here against Cincinnati. The Bengals lost their best defensive back in Jesse Bates in free agency. The Browns should have an advantage on the outside.


I like Cleveland to take care of business at home.


The pick: Cleveland (+1.5)

 

Arizona at Washington


Spread: Washington (-7)


Total: 37.5


The Sam Howell era begins in Washington while the tank for Caleb Williams campaign will ignite for Arizona (assuming Williams and his dad doesn't pull him out of the draft). I think those two things go hand and hand. I would never recommend betting a touchdown favorite with a total under 40. But certain circumstances call for desperate measures. Joshua Dobbs will be starting at quarterback for the Cardinals. Dobbs was adding to the Cardinals roster a week ago. They cut DeAndre Hopkins and 1st round linebacker Isaiah Simmons this offseason.


Washington’s offense will be ignited by new offensive coordinator Eric Bieniemy from the Chiefs. Sam Howell looked very good in the preseason. Remember, going into his junior year of college Howell was projected to be a top pick before he slid late in the draft.

Truthfully, Washington is going to be dominant on defense. The Commandeers ranked first in third down conversion rate a year ago. They are going to stop the run and put the Cardinals into many third and longs. The Cardinals don’t have the offensive firepower to convert.


Take Washington


The Pick: Washington (-7)


Miami at LA Chargers


Spread: Chargers (-3)


Total: 51


The Chargers are hosting Miami in one of the premier Week 1 games. I talked in my preseason article about Justin Herbert’s MVP campaign, which will begin Sunday. The Chargers have one of the most talented rosters in the NFL. It’s probably in the top 5 based on talent alone. The Chargers problem is they can never stay healthy and they have had bad situational coaching. It’s Week 1, the Chargers offensive and defensive lines are completely healthy. Chargers star edges Joey Bosa and Khalil Mack had only 115 snaps together last season. The only full game they had together, week one against the Raiders, the Chargers lead the NFL in defensive EPA and pressure rate.


Meanwhile, these two teams played last year on Sunday Night Football, LA held Dolphins quarterback Tua Tagovailoa to his lowest QBR of the season, at 26.4. And the Dolphins will be without Pro Bowl left tackle Tarren Armstead.


The addition of Kellen Moore will tremendously help with the Charger’s situational offense. Under Kellen Moore, the Cowboys ranked in the top 10 in red zone TD percentage and third down percentage. The Chargers win big against the Dolphins again.


The Pick: Chargers (-3)

 

Buffalo at New York Jets


Spread: Buffalo (-2.5)


Total: 45.5


I picked the Bills to win the Super Bowl, but I’m also on the Aaron Rodgers, New York, New York roller coaster ride. And I love the Jets in this spot. The Jets out muscled the Bills last year in New York winning 20-17. The Jets still retain most of the same pieces as last season for the most part. This is great news for Jets fans, as New York’s defense was one of the top units in the league a season ago. New York has one of the best fronts seven in football. Sauce Gardner on the outside is someone who can limit Stefon Diggs on the outside.


Offensively, the Jets have to be better with Aaron Rodgers right. Rodgers is a perfect 9-0 when being featured on Monday night football. Rodgers will have a solid running game with Breece Hall and Dalvin Cook. Rodgers will take care of the football. The Jets young receivers will take jumps with Aaron Rodgers. We know Rodgers can make the clutch plays he needs to make. Rodgers as an underdog at home, we can’t pass that up. Take the Jets +2.5.


The pick: Jets +2.5


Follow Austin on Twitter - @AustinMontgomeryLive



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