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Writer's pictureJake Faigus

Wednesday college hoops preview: Picks on UConn-Marquette, Tennessee-South Carolina and more!



Credit: UConn athletics

We are down to our final few days of the college hoops regular season, and pressure is mounting.


Some teams are fighting for their NCAA Tournament lives, some for seeding, a few like Tennessee are trying to lock in No. 1 seeds.



So, with three ranked matchups on the board tonight and several other key showdowns, here is our Wednesday night preview - presented by BetUS, where you can get 125 percent deposit bonus on your first three deposits. Just click here.


Now to the Wednesday picks.


Villanova at Seton Hall - 3:30 p.m. ET, FS1


Spread: Seton Hall (-1)

Over/Under: 132


This is a massive game from a bubble perspective in the NCAA Tournament. Joe Lunardi has Villanova on the bubble as the "Last Four Byes" and then Seton Hall is a step below in the "Last Four In." This game could be an elimination game between the two with just under a week left in the regular season.


For Villanova, Eric Dixon is a difference maker for the Wildcats and leads the way in scoring at 16.1 points per game. The metrics love the Wildcats with the NET rankings having them at 26 and then KenPom has them at 24 overall. They have excelled on defense, allowing 65.4 points per game, which is good for 23rd in the country in scoring defense. They are allowing a total field goal percentage of 40.9% from the field and they are 13th in adjusted defense on KenPom at 95.6.


Seton Hall is not as loved on the metrics at 60th in KenPom overall and they are 68th in the NET. Kadary Richmond does it all for them at the guard spot. He leads the team in scoring at 16.2 points per game, in assists at 4.8 per game, and in steals at 2 per game. They do have great wins in conference against both UConn and Marquette, but they need to get more consistent overall.


Seton Hall needs this game more than Villanova, but the Wildcats are the better team and should cement themselves in the NCAA Tournament with this win on the road.


Pick: Villanova ML


 

No. 4 Tennessee at No. 17 South Carolina - 4:00 p.m. ET, ESPN


Spread: Tennessee (-5.5)

Over/Under: 139


Tennessee was facing a gauntlet to end the regular season and they already passed one of their tests with a huge win against Alabama on the road this past weekend. South Carolina on the road is up next and the Gamecocks have been nothing short of one of the best stories in college basketball this season.


Tennessee is one of the best teams in the country and if they keep winning, they are going to be more widely seen as one of the 1-seeds included on that list with UConn, Houston, and Purdue. Tennessee is the 5th overall team in KenPom with the third ranked adjusted defense at 91.6. They are also allowing 67.4 points per game. The biggest difference for the Volunteers this season is that they have improved a lot on offense thanks in large part to Dalton Knecht. He has burst onto the scene this season and is averaging 20.6 points per game. He has been able to single-handedly carry the Volunteers if necessary and that was on display when he scored 39 points and 27 of those in the second half. Credit to the Vols though, who relied on their defense to get them a win at Alabama on Saturday.


Then there's South Carolina, which has hung their hat on mucking the game up this season and they did it already once to Tennessee this season on the road. The Gamecocks are 44th in KenPom and they are 42nd in adjusted defense at 99.8. Meechie Johnson has been a difference maker for the Gamecocks and is their best offensive player, averaging 14.2 points per game.

Tennessee is on a roll right now and should get revenge against the Gamecocks after they beat them in Knoxville earlier this season.


Pick: Tennessee (-5.5)


 

Northwestern at Michigan State - 7:00 p.m. ET, Big Ten Network


Spread: Michigan State (-9)

Over/Under: 136.5


Although neither team is totally "on the bubble" neither team is totally safe getting into the tournament field either - with each club looking to solidify their resume on Tuesday night in East Lansing. According to Joe Lunardi’s latest projection Northwestern is an 8-seed and Michigan State is a 9-seed.


The metrics like Michigan State a lot more than they like Northwestern. Michigan State is 20th in KenPom with their adjusted defense being at 95.6 and they allow 66.5 points per game. The NET also loves the Spartans with them being ranked 22nd in those rankings. Tyson Walker can put the Spartans on his back when needed and leads the team in scoring at 18 points per game.

Northwestern has the better record than the Spartans, but the metrics don’t like them nearly as much with them being 53rd in the NET and they are 46th in KenPom overall. They go as Boo Buie goes this season. He leads the team in scoring at 18.9 points per game and has shown what he can do for the Wildcats this season on his own when he almost single-handedly beat Purdue earlier this year.


Michigan State is in a bigger need of a win after losing three straight games, while Northwestern needs to recover after getting upset by Iowa in their last game.


Pick: Michigan State (-9)


 

No. 2 UConn at No. 8 Marquette - Wednesday, 8:30 p.m. ET, FS1


Spread: UConn (-5)

Over/Under: 151.5


With UConn clinching the Big East outright title Wednesday, there isn't quite as much at stake as normal here - but you know this is always a big game when these two teams get together.

Unfortunately, Marquette won't be at full-strength, as point guard Tyler Kolek is out the rest of the regular season with an oblique injury. Star Oso Ighodaro was also out with illness, although he is expected to be back for this one.


Still, even at less than full-strength, Marquette has been nothing but solid all season across the board. They are 14th in both the NET and in KenPom. Kam Jones is more than capable of filling an even bigger role with Kolek out and potentially Ighodaro. He already leads the team in scoring at 16.1 points per game. Marquette is firmly in the tournament as a 2-seed, but a win against UConn would go a long way for them to have an outside chance at a 1-seed.


UConn has played like arguably the best team in the country for large chunks of this season. Tristen Newton and Cam Spencer have emerged as the two best players for the Huskies throughout this season. Newton leads the team in points at 15.3, rebounds at 7.1, and in assists at 6 per game, while Spencer averages 14.8 points per game and then leads the team in three-point shooting at 45% and in steals at 1.4. When it comes to metrics, UConn is the third ranked team in the NET and is the second overall team in KenPom. They are 4th in adjusted offense at 126.7 and they are 17th in adjusted defense at 96.2.


This is a prime spot for Marquette to get a massive win before the tournament, but with Kolek out it highly favors UConn even on the road. Expect Marquette to keep the game close, but UConn pulls away late.


Pick: UConn (-5)


 

No. 20 BYU at No. 6 Iowa State - 9:00 p.m. ET, ESPN2


Spread: Iowa State (-7.5)

Over/Under: 147


These two teams are playing some of the best basketball in the Big 12 besides Houston. BYU has won two straight and three of their last four games, including a stunning win at Phog Allen Fieldhouse against Kansas. Iowa State has won seven of their last eight games and three straight before this game.


BYU is also 12th in the NET and 16th in KenPom overall. The Cougars have excelled the most on offense scoring 82.7 points per game and they are 9th in adjusted offense in KenPom at 121.8. They also share the ball very well with 18.9 assists per game, which is 3rd in all of college basketball. Jaxson Robinson is the best scorer on the team at 13.9 points per game.


Iowa State has been one of the best teams in the country this season. Iowa State is 8th in the NET and is 10th overall in KenPom with their adjusted defense being 2nd at 90.3. Their defense is what makes them go and they are allowing 61.9 points per game, which is the 6th ranked scoring defense in college basketball. They are a balanced team on offense with Keshon Gilbert and Tamin Lipsey leading the way in scoring. Gilbert averages 13.8 points per game and leads the team, while Lipsey is second at 12.3 points per game, but he leads the team in assists at 5.2 per game and in steals at 2.8 per game.


The Big 12 has been a gauntlet all year and it is not slowing down with the regular season almost over and this game epitomizes that. These are two very hot teams at the perfect time. BYU is playing great, and their offense is the reason why, but the Cyclones have been great on defense and at home that should be the difference. The Cougars should keep the close most of the game but expect Iowa State to pull away late and win thanks to Hilton Magic.


Pick: Iowa State (-7.5)




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