New England at Atlanta
Spread: Atlanta +6.5
Total: 47
Odds presented by DraftKings Sportsbook
It’s been a minute but we are back with another Thursday night matchup. Tonight we have a rematch of Super Bowl LI. Will Matt Ryan get revenge, or will 28-3 live in infamy?
Atlanta (4-5) has struggled to string wins together and are coming off a humiliating 43-3 setback in Dallas. While New England (6-4) has been on a tear behind rookie QB Mac Jones, coming off a 45-7 demolition of the Browns.
This is a game where we are betting against perception. Atlanta has not been good, especially on the defensive side of the ball. Atlanta ranks 31st in total defensive DVOA and specifically ranks 30th against the pass. Is this the game Josh McDaniels unleashes Mac Jones? New England is 5-0 when Jones throws the ball less than 30 times. Yet they are 1-4 in the times he throws over that amount. That could be because New England frequently trails in those games. But I think you see ball control, run the first game plan from New England in a short week. While Matt Ryan is averaging over 250 passing yards a game for Atlanta, the offensive metrics don’t look pretty. Atlanta ranks 29th in offensive DVOA and they rank 32nd in rushing DVOA. Combo running back/receiver Cordarrelle Patterson is out.
So with all the analytics favoring New England, why are we in Atlanta? Well for one 76 percent of the bets are on New England and the line hasn’t moved much. The last time we saw New England they were world beaters, while Atlanta looked like Dumb and Dumber last Sunday. We are fading New England at a high price point and taking Atlanta at a lower one. I think we see Matt Ryan’s best game in a revenge spot. Also primetime underdogs are 12-3 ATS in the last 15 matchups.
Let’s ride with the home dog here.
The pick: Atlanta (+6.5)
Follow Austin Montgomery on Twitter @AMontgomeryLive
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