What's going on my people?! I thought I'd surprise you guys and give a guest Thursday Night Football gambling selection. Sometimes life is all about perspective, and you can look at tonight's matchup in one of two ways. You can either think that we get to watch Mike f****** White lightning (I can't not refer to him as his nickname of 'white lightning' because of how cool it is, so bear with me) try and lead the New York against a huge upset against Indianapolis or you can view this as just another crappy game between two below average teams fighting to stay relevant. I choose to believe in the former. Now, without further ado, let's get to the pick!
Week 9 Thursday Night Football, with odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook:
New York Jets at Indianapolis Colts
Line: Indianapolis Colts (-10.5)
Gut Feeling: I'll just say what everyone is thinking off the bat, Mike White is not going to catch the league off-guard again by throwing for 405 yards and three touchdowns. Also, 270 of those yards came after the receiver had already caught the ball, and the league average is 128 so I would expect New York's receivers to come back down to Earth this week against a more stout Indianapolis secondary.
As a team New York is coming off its best win of the young season, unlike Indy right now. Carson Wentz and crew just had a chance to beat the current AFC-leading and divisional rival Tennessee, but instead lost in overtime. Colts HC Frank Reich received some backlash for his play calling last week. I would expect their offensive strategy to heavily depend on Jonathon Taylor, Nyheim Hines, Marlon Mack and their sturdy offensive line. They are going to have all five of their hog mollies healthy for the second time all year.
When you take that into consideration, in addition to Wentz's poor decision making and an injured T.Y. Hilton, expect Indy to have long, run-dependent drives. Reich's crew is fighting for their season this game, but having said that, to beat a team riding a high by 11+ points may be a lot to ask for.
By the Numbers:
--> New York is 2-6 ATS this year
--> Indianapolis is 5-3 ATS this year
--> Over is 4-0 in New York's last four games as road underdogs
Final Thoughts: I have a heavy lean on betting the Indy spread right now because they are that much more talented than New York from a roster standpoint. Having said that, voluntarily putting money on Carson Wentz is a dangerous game to play. It feels like every time Carson touches the ball it can either be an 80-yard touchdown, a horrible interception, or anything in between. The play here tonight is not to put your money in Carson's hands or Mike White lighting's hands, but to bet the under. As I mentioned early, I think Indy's defense will be able to stifle the Jets offense while having clock-eating, methodical run-first drives.
Official pick: Under 46
Follow Jason Oppler on Twitter @JayOppler23
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