The best and worst NBA title bets entering the 2022-2023 season (presented by Betfred Sportsbook)
As crazy as it sounds, the NBA season tips off tonight with a pair of games,
Betfred Sportsbook recently updated their odds - and we went through looked at the Top 10 teams and gave you the best bets and stay aways.
For the full Betfred odds, click here.
10. Los Angeles Lakers - +1800
Key Additions - Patrick Beverley, Thomas Bryant, Damian Jones, Dennis Schroder, Kendrick Nunn, Lonnie Walker IV, Juan Toscano-Anderson, Dwayne Bacon
Key Subtractions - Malik Monk, Talen Horton-Tucker, Carmelo Anthony, Dwight Howard, Avery Bradley
Overview- Any LeBron James led basketball team has contention for an NBA title. It was just two years ago James and Anthony Davis led the Los Angeles Lakers to an NBA title. The Lakers upgraded their depth and talent with their offseason acquisitions, this including new head coach Darvin Ham, who was an assistant coach under Mike Budenholzer and the 2021 champion Milwaukee Bucks. There is no intangible in this league that compares to championship experience. If Davis can remain healthy and Russell Westbrook can accept a lesser role on offense and a larger role on defense, the concerns surrounding team chemistry for the Lakers will vanish. The Lakers have the talent to make a deep title run, but their talent is top heavy. If Davis or James go down with an injury as they have in the recent past, the Lakers have no shot.
Value +1800 - I would wait to place any bets on the Los Angeles Lakers. The Lakers have too many unanswered questions and too many what if’s. You can afford to wait as teams like the Grizzlies (+2200), Heat (+2200), Mavericks (+2800), and Cavaliers (+3000), will surpass them in the odds.
9. Phoenix Suns - +1500
Key Additions - Damion Lee, Josh Okogie, Torry Craig (End of last season)
Key Subtractions - JaVale McGee, Jae Crowder (wants out)
Overview - The Phoenix Suns are coming off of a 64 win season which topped the National Basketball Association and it was just a season before they reached the NBA Finals. Led by 2022 Coach Of The Year Monty Williams and offensive juggernaut Devin Booker, the Suns look to pick up where they left off after a disappointing second round exit last season. The Suns are one of the best in terms of defense, led by Mikal Bridges (a potential DPOY) and one of the most efficient offenses (1st in FG% in 2022). Despite their efficiency I am afraid they do not possess that offensive X-factor outside of Devin Booker. Chris Paul is now 37, Crowder wants out and Deandre Ayton is no longer playing with a chip on his shoulder. I believe the Suns best days are behind them.
Value +1500 - This is exactly where Phoenix should be, but your money is safer somewhere else. If you are looking to bet on teams with similar odds, bet on the Nuggets (+1500), 76ers (+1200), Heat (+2200). If you really like the Suns, bet them now; if they achieve similar regular seasons numbers, they will become overvalued.
8. Brooklyn Nets - +700
Key Additions - Ben Simmons, Seth Curry (end of last season), Markieff Morris, Royce O’Neal, T.J. Warren
Key Subtractions - James Harden (end of last season), LaMarcus Aldridge, Bruce Brown
Injuries - T.J Warren (expected to return in November)
Overview - The Brooklyn Nets are loaded offensively; led by one of, if not the best offensive duos in the league, Kevin Durant and Kyrie Irving. With the offseason acquisitions of Royce O’Neal and Ben Simmons along with Nikolas Claxton holding down the center of the floor, the Nets pose just as much of a threat defensively as they do offensively coming into the 2022 season. The limitless offensive potential, depth, and championship experience from their leaders, give the Brooklyn Nets a legitimate shot to win the NBA title. Though it is not their talent that concerns me. It is the unpredictability of Kyrie Irving, the offseason drama involving both superstars and the front office, and their lack of chemistry.
Value +700 - The Brooklyn Nets are completely overvalued at +700. It is their talent alone that gives this number any value, but talent alone does not win championships. The Nets are far too erratic and have way too many questions that need to be answered before you can confidently bet on this team. Provide caution when betting Eastern Conference teams this season, the road to the finals will pose much more challenges in the East.
7. Miami Heat - +2200
Key Additions - Victor Olidepo (returns from injury)
Key Subtractions - P.J. Tucker, Markieff Morris
Overview - The Miami Heat are home to one of the best organizations and best cultures in basketball. The Heat are coming off of a 53 win season topping the Eastern Conference which led to a game 7 loss in the ECF (Eastern Conference Finals) to the Boston Celtics. This is a top 5 defensive team in basketball led by future HOF (Hall Of Fame) coach Erik Spolstra along with two way superstar Jimmy Butler and potential defensive player of the year Bam Adebeyo. Overlooked on the offensive side of the ball, the Miami Heat poised incredible 3 point and free throw percentages, leading the NBA last year in 3pt % and attaining 5th overall in FT%. The Miami Heat's physicality on defense and ability to effectively shoot the ball from the perimeter give this team a solid shot to win the NBA championship. That being said, I do have concerns with their primary ball handler, Kyle Lowry, turning 37, the loss of P.J. tucker which will reveal itself during the postseason, and their lack of a secondary X- factor on offense. Yes Tyler Herro can put up 25 on any given night, but is he a number two on a championship roster.
Value +2200 - This number left me flummoxed. +2200 for a team who lost in game seven of the EFC and topped the Eastern Conference in the regular season does not make sense to me. This is my favorite sleeper to win the NBA finals, and if you like Miami bet them now, they will not be sitting at +2200 for long.
6. Denver Nuggets - +1500
Key Additions - Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, Bruce Brown, DeAndre Jordan, Michael Porter Jr. (return from injury), Jamal Murry (returns from injury)
Key Subtractions - Will Barton, Monte Morris, Austin Rivers
Overview - Despite being without two offensive catalysts in Jamal Murray and Michael Porter Jr. the Denver Nuggets were able secure a six seed in the western conference last season after winning 48 games. Last season showed the true impact and value Nikola Jokic has on this Nuggets team; now that Aaron Gordan is no longer his second option, the Nuggets pose a real threat in the West. Though they are without 2 of their top 4 scorers last season, the Nuggets roster exponentially increased this offseason. This is a long, dominant rebounding team, who looks to remind people why they were a legitimate threat during the 2020 NBA playoffs. The Nuggets enter the season with strong team chemistry and a good amount of depth. Their defensive struggles and late playoff experience or lack thereof are the only factors holding this team back from winning the NBA championship.
Value +1500 - This is an amazing value for the Denver Nuggets and if you like the Nuggets this season, bet them right now. I do not see them staying at this number, expect them to be at around +1000 or lower. This may be the best value you will be able to find in Denver at all season.
5. Los Angeles Clippers - +700
Key Additions - John Wall, Norman Powell (end of last season), Robert Covington, Kawhi Leonard (return from injury), Paul George (return from injury)
Key Subtractions - Serge Ibaka
Overview - With Reggie Jackson and Marcus Morris Sr. being the leading scorers on the Los Angeles Clipper last year, they managed to win 42 games and secure the 8th seed in the Western Conference. Now add Kawhi Leonard, Paul George, Norman Powell and John Wall into the mix; a scary thought for the rest of the league. The Los Angeles Clippers come into the season with one of the three deepest teams in the league and the best two-way tandem in basketball. The Clipper are composed of explosive offensive talent, lethal shooters on the perimeter and a long, physical, lockdown defense. The fact that they have 1 player that can give you 30 on any given night while shutting down the opposing team’s best player is dangerous, luckily for the Clippers they have two. If the Clippers can stay healthy under the championship leadership of head coach Tyron Lue and superstar Kawhi Leonard, there is absolutely no reason they can not hold the Larry O’Brien at the end of the season.
Value +700 - This is exactly where the Los Angeles Clippers should be in the odds. I believe they will be around the same number all season and it would not hurt to bet them now. If +700 is not worth it to you, wait. They will drop some games in the regular season due to load management, but I do not see them rising to anything higher than +800.
4. Milwaukee Bucks - +650
Key Additions - Serge Ibaka, Joe Ingles
Key Subtractions - Donte Divincenzo
Injuries - Joe Ingles (expected to return in January), Pat Connaughton (return longer than expected)
Overview - If your roster has Ginnias Antetokounmpo on it, you have a shot to win the NBA title. This does not even account for Khris Middleton and Jrue Holiday, which make up one of the best big threes in basketball. Just 2 seasons removed from an NBA championship, the Milwaukee Bucks look to repeat the success they had achieved in that 2021 season. They have all the weapons to do so. This team has towering height and suffocating length, two factors that allowed them to be the second best rebounding team in basketball last season. Head Coach Mike Budenholzer’s defensive eccentric team has consistently shown its ability to dominate both sides of the ball. Last season on offense the Bucks finished 3rd in ppg, and 5th in 3pt%. Their ability to dominate the paint and stroke it efficiently from the perimeter give this team the ability to win any game they participate in. I only have one concern for this Bucks team, they are extremely top heavy. This was shown in last year's playoffs against the Boston Celtics. Many believe that the series would have looked much different with Middleton on the floor. The Bucks have shown they can win a championship, that is as long as their core 3 remain healthy.
Value +650 - This is where I would predict the Milwaukee Bucks to land in the odds and there is absolutely nothing wrong with this number. If the Milwaukee Bucks are able to obtain a top 2 seed in the Eastern Conference, betting this number now is in your best interests. If you believe they will fall to 3-4, wait, their odds will become longer.
3. Boston Celtics - +575
Key Additions - Blake Griffin, Malcom Brogdon, Justin Jackson, Danillo Gallinari, Derrick White (end of last season)
Key Subtractions - Daniel Theis, Dennis Schroder, Josh Richardson
Injuries - Robert Williams (8-12 weeks), Danillo Gallinari (potential to return by playoffs)
Overview - Last season we saw the Boston Celtics make one of the most exciting championship runs in history. After starting the season 17-19 through the first 36 games, the Boston Celtics catapulted themselves into a 2 seed in last year's playoffs. The Celtics went on to win two game sevens just before falling short to the Golden State Warriors. Certainly a humbling experience for Tatum and crew, the Celtics look to use that experience as fuel to add to their fire. Led by one of the best 1, 2 punches in the league, Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown and a top 5 defense led by last year's DPOY Marcus Smart the Celtics are one of the three deepest and most dangerous teams in the league. Consistanting of an intense blend of height, length, athleticism and physicality, this team is built to make a deep playoff run. The Celtics start the season undefeated as they undoubtedly got better with their offseason acquisitions. The suspension of Ime Udoka could be the ultimate downfall of the Boston Celtics, they hope assistant coach Joe Mazulla can bring the same locker room intensity Ima Udoka bestowed upon the franchise last season.
Value + 575 - To start the season the Celtics are overvalued. Expect an increase in the odds as they will start the season without Robert Williams and may have the same slow start they had last season. The East is incredibly strong so waiting on the Celtics to fall in the odds is the right move. Place your bets on this team just before the return of Robert Williams.
2. Philadelphia 76ers - +1200
Key Additions - Montrezl Harrell, Danuel House, De’Anthony Melton, P.J. Tucker, James Harden (end of last season)
Key Subtractions - Seth Curry, Danny Green, Andre Drummond
Overview - During the offseason the Philadelphia 76ers must have bought a bigger building because their ceiling grew substantially. They have added depth, perimeter threats, and defensive spark plugs. The energy that Harell and Tucker will bring to this roster which consists of two multiple All-Defensive team award winners in Joel Embiid and Matisse Thybulle will make a remarkable difference in the postseason. Did I not even mention their offense? They have 4 guys who are good for 85+ a night in Embiid(30.6 ppg), James Harden(21 ppg), Tobais Harris (17.2 ppg), and an emerging star in Tyrese Maxey who averaged 17.5 ppg last season. The 76ers have the coaching staff, the talent, the depth and the defense to make a postseason run. Under Embiid the Sixers have not made it to the Eastern Conference finals, the Sixers are hopeful 2021 NBA Champion P.J. Tucker will help leap that obstacle.
Value +1200 - This is an absolutely bet now situation. +1200 is the best you will find the 76ers all season. If they secure a 3 seed or better, which I strongly believe they will, the number will be much lower than +1200.
1. Golden State Warriors - +600
Key Additions - Donte Divincenzo, James Wiseman (return from injury) Key Subtractions - Otto Porter Jr., Gary Payton II, Juan Toscano-Anderson
Overview - The Golden State Warriors look to complete another repeat and hoist their 5th NBA Championship trophy during the Steph Curry, Klay Thompson, Draymond Green era. I believe they have the best chance to accomplish this feat. There are no flaws in this Warriors team, they have the deepest team in the league, the best 6th man in the league, the best big 3 in the league with an emerging 2 way superstar in Andrew Wiggins, the best chemistry in the league, a top 3 defense, a top 3 offense, and a 9 time champion coach in Steve Kerr. I would not take much out of the Draymond Green and Jordan Poole incident; Poole just got paid and Draymond will never lack intensity while playing the game of basketball. The Golden State Warriors will always be championship contenders as long as their big 3 stays intact.
Value +600 - The Warriors have the second best odds to win the NBA championship and I believe they will jump in between 1-2 throughout the season. The numbers will not change much but I only see their odds getting lower. Bet them now, they are the safest and best value.
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