It’s Super Bowl Sunday baby! The last game of the football season so we are going to try to get as much action in as possible. If you don’t have a team to root for, props are an ideal way to get into the game. We will go through some player props, fun props, and more.
So let’s go through some.
1. Coin Toss Heads (-101) - Heads
Let’s shout out our sponsor Betfred sportsbook for putting an ethical line on this. We are not getting +100. But books that put this at -105 are criminal. We have a true 50 percent chance of this hitting. Really depends if you are a heads or tails never fails guy. I’ve always been a head dude. Heads hit the last two times. It’s always fun to troll the tails never fails guy because the coin toss lands heads 50 percent of the time.
2. Will the game be tied at any point after the score is 0-0: Yes (-110)
You would have lost this prop if you bet on the last three Super Bowls. With the spread being within two points, I feel like this is a pretty safe bet. All we need is two offensive touchdowns in the first two possessions right? I like a game that favors the offense. Both teams are good at responding. So let’s root for a good game and see if we get multiple points where the game is tied.
3. Under 1.5 Field Goals First Half (-125)
Both teams are very aggressive and both teams are good at finishing drives. The Eagles tend to go for it on fourth down and short. Andy Reid first half scripts will get the Chiefs into the end zone. I like the field goal the whole game but I like the first half better just in case we get into overtime. Kickers are more likely to miss early as they get settled in. We will take the under here.
4. Dallas Goedert over 47.5 receiving yards -115
I like Goedert here. Goedert is averaging 48 receiving yards per game since he came back 5 games ago. He’s done with a hurt Jalen Hurts and blowouts in the second half. Kansas City is going to pull up safeties to stop the run. They will give up yards to tight ends. We saw what Hayden Hurts did in the AFC Championship game. Kansas City hasn’t really faced many talented tight ends this year. I expect Philly to get Goedert involved.
5. Quez Watkins under 1.5 receptions (-170)
With Goedert’s emergence, Watkins' usage has declined. Watkins has averaged 0.5 receptions in the last five games. Watkins only has a 34% snap share in games where Goedert plays. Watkins is used as a deep threat so when he does get targeted, they are low percentage catches. Kansas City does a great job at limiting the deep play. I think the Eagles try to rely on the ground game. Watkins is not reliable and has a blocker in the slot. I’ll take him under here.
6. Jerrod McKinnon over 20.5 receiving yards (+180) and anytime touchdown (First Touchdown +1200)
The Eagles rank 24th in pass DVOA vs RBs, allowing 6.8 targets per game to opposing running backs. In the Chiefs last 2 Super Bowl appearances, running backs combined for 9 targets and 8 targets. The Chiefs receiving core is coming in limping. McKinnon has been quiet in the postseason, but I believe he breaks out here. Outside of Kelice, McKinnon is Mahomes' most reliable target. Hardman, Smith-Schuster, and Toney all missed practice last week. Get your Mckinnon props ready.
7. Travis Kelce over 7.5 receptions and 77 receiving yards
Call me square, but this is the most obvious prop in the game. Kelce has gone long over this mark in seven of his last eight. As we mentioned with McKinnon, the Kansas City offense is depleted. Andy Reid is going to find a way to funnel targets to Kelce early. Kelce is one of the best pass catchers against zone, which the Eagles play 70% of the time. Don’t overthink just take Kelce here.
8. Devonta Smith over 60.5 receiving yards (-115)
Smith is a gamer. He had the game winning catch in the national championship game against Georgia. He had 215 receiving yards in the rout against Ohio State. He has been on the big stage before. With Kansas City playing tight coverage, Hurts will get the ball to his quick receivers. Smith is good against man and zone. He will be featured often. Take Smith’s over here.
9. Patrick Mahomes over 4.5 rush attempts (+125)
I know Mahomes has a bum ankle. But this is the Superbowl. Mahomes is going to be more willing to run here. Plus kneel downs count as a rush attempt. If you like the Chiefs to win, this is also a great bet or a hedge if you like the Eagles.
10. Miles Sanders over 60.5 rushing yards (-115)
Love Sanders here. Sanders didn’t play the entire second half. He is going to be the bell cow. Kansas City can sometimes get bashed against the run. We are going to see a lot of Sanders early. I know Eagles can sometimes rotate backs. Sanders is going to be the one called upon. Give me Sanders here.
You can follow Austin on Twitter - @AMontgomeryLive
You can check out Betfred Sportsbook's full slate of prop bets here
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