The City of Las Vegas is hosting its first Super Bowl. It’s the biggest event in the history of a city that is known for entertainment.
In terms of storylines, this Super Bowl has it all. You have Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs looking to further the KC dynasty hoping to win back-to-back Lombardi trophies, and his third overall. For Mahomes, a win on Sunday would make him the fifth starting quarterback to win three Super Bowl Rings joining Terry Bradshaw, Joe Montana, Troy Aikman, and of course the GOAT Tom Brady. Mind you, Mahomes is only 28.
On the other side, you have the 49ers. Kyle Shanahan’s squad has been the epitome of very good for the last half decade. Now he is getting his second shot as a head coach at a Lombardi Trophy. The 49ers are led by the last pick of the 2022 NFL Draft Brock Purdy. San Francisco has the largest collection of stars on both sides of the ball with Christian McCaffrey, Deebo Samuel, Nick Bosa, Fred Warner, Georgie Kittle and many others.
Who has the edge, the team with the best quarterback or the team with the best collection of stars.
Let’s dive into the matchup.
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Advantages for Kansas City:
We mentioned before that Kansas has the QB advantage. That’s just a given.
But we have to talk about the Kansas City defense here. Kansas City’s defense ranks sixth in EPA, fourth in total defense and second in scoring. They have the best defensive back tandem in this game in Trent McDuffle and LaJarius Sneed. Sneed will be responsible for taking away Brandon Ayuik or Deebo Samuel. Kansas City’s pass rush has been very good too. They get back starting outside linebacker Willie Gay - who has missed the last two postseason games.
I think there is an experience advantage too. San Francisco has a lot of veterans. Kansas City knows how to prepare for a Super Bowl. They aren’t going to be distracted. Like I mentioned in previous articles, San Francisco can be too conservative for their own good. Andy Reid is very aggressive and will formulate big time plays at the most crucial time. Kansas City’s offense has a tough test against San Francisco's defense. Mahomes does really well against cover 3 base defenses.
Kansas City’s weakness is they don’t have many man beaters. But guys like Travis Kelce are excellent at finding holes in defenses. Kansas City’s offensive line ranks 2nd in sacks allowed.
I think they will be able to give Mahomes enough time to find holes in their defense.
Advantages for San Francisco:
The main advantage for San Francisco is they have the better players. San Francisco has seven All Pro selections on their roster. If you were to do a draft of the top 10 players in this game, San Francisco would have seven of the 10.
And the stats back that up.
San Francisco’s offense ranks first in EPA in both passing and rushing. San Francisco’s offensive line ranks third in offensive line yards while the Kansas City defensive line ranks 26th in defensive line yards given up. Their defense ranks third in scoring, third in total defense, and sixth in EPA. I think they do have an advantage on both lines of scrimmages. They can get a pass rush by rushing just four guys. If they can do that, we can see Mahomes miss a step. The San Francisco defensive front is good against the run and pass.
I think this game is going to come down to Brock Purdy and the San Francisco offense. The 49ers have too many horses. The Chiefs won both of their playoff games because their opponents refused to run the ball in the second half. San Francisco is not going to do that. San Francisco is averaging 4.8 yards per rush attempt and Kansas City is allowing 4.5 on defense. San Francisco is going to control the tempo and is going to use their run game to move the ball.
I think the revenge factor is on their side here too. You have multiple San Francisco stars playing in that 2020 Super Bowl.
The pick:
I have gone back and forth with this pick the last few days. I think at the end of it, San Francisco is on the right side. I know a lot of people say, "you can’t bet against Mahomes" and that he is destined to win his thir ring. That is simply the wrong way to go about it. I think San Francisco controls the clock. They will be able to run the ball. San Francisco makes enough plays to keep Mahomes at bay. Kansas City could have easily lost their last two playoff games similar to San Francisco. I think San Francisco’s offense comes up clutch here.
The pick: San Francisco ML -125
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