The NFL playoffs are finally upon us. We only have 16 NFL games in the NFL season left. We have no time to waste. We will have a pick or lean for every NFL game on the Wild Card weekend slate. We finished the season on a 10-6 run. Let’s try to continue that.
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Without further ado, here are the picks for Saturday's Super Wild Card weekend games.
We'll also have a preview for Sunday and Monday nights games later in the weekend.
Cleveland at Houston
Spread: Cleveland -2
Total: 44.5
Cleveland and Houston feature the two best stories in the sport. Demeco Ryans and Kevin Stefanski will finish 1-2 in the Coach of the Year voting. Cleveland is the first team in NFL history to make the playoffs while starting four different quarterbacks, while CJ Stroud and Ryans turned Houston into a surprise playoff team. They went worst to first in the AFC South, thanks to an incredible rookie campaign by CJ Stroud. Stroud threw for 4,108 yards and 23 touchdowns.
But, Stroud he will face his toughest test facing a Cleveland defense that ranks 1st in EPA and DVOA.
First year coaches and first year quarterbacks don’t have a great track record in the playoffs. I think Ryan and Stroud are just different. Denzel Ward is questionable to play for Cleveland.
While Cleveland has an elite defense, Houston ranks in the upper tier as well. Houston ranks 14th in EPA and 11th in total defense. Where they excel at is stopping the run. It didn’t look that
way in their game. On the season, Houston is limiting their opponents to just 3.5 yards per rush, good for 3rd in the NFL. The fact Houston did not look great in what was essentially a playoff game against Indianapolis- gives them some value as a home underdog.
Going to take Houston at home on the ML and use them in various teaser legs.
The pick: Houston ML +115
Miami at Kansas City
Spread: Kansas City -4.5
Total: 44.5
The narrative of course coming into this game is potentially insane weather in Kansas City, where tempeartures are expected to be around eight degrees at kickoff.
In terms of the game, there is the "Tyreek Hill returning to Kansas City to try and ruin their season" narrative, which is interesting as well. Because of it, Miami is a popular underdog this week. I just don’t see it.
Kansas City offense has been underwhelming for the first time in Patrick Mahomes career. They rank 11th in EPA and 15th in scoring (21.8) which is above average. That’s a big dip considering Kansas City has ranked lower than 3rd in those categories the past half decade. Miami ranks 4th in EPA and 2nd in scoring. They will be playing in freezing temperatures at Arrowhead field.
We saw Tua struggle in the two cold weather games in Buffalo, and Baltimore against comparable defenses. Kansas City’s defense has been the backbone of the team. They rank second in scoring allowing teams to score just 17.3 points per game and rank 5th in yards per play. They pressure the quarterback well and are stout in the run game. I think they shut down Miami. Patrick Mahomes is going to do what he does in the playoffs. I love Kansas City in this spot.
The pick: Kansas City -4.5
Follow Austin Montgomery on Twitter - @AMontgomeryLive
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