Saturday Betting Preview - thoughts on Cleveland-Green Bay, Indianapolis-Arizona and more
What are we going to do with all the Christmas money and Christmas bonuses we got this year? Maybe bet it on some football to start?
Of course we recommend wagering responsibly on AT Online. Especially with the streak we have been on as of late. I got things rolling last weekend going 4-1-1 to stop a pretty bad consecutive losing skid. Our overall record sits at 47-50-1 on the year (including our Thursday night and mid-week plays).
Not great but it could be a lot worse. But I promise we will be above .500 by year's end.
And it starts here on Christmas Day - Santa is going to bring two winners today, and then we'll have our normal Sunday preview tomorrow.
Here are today's picks presented by our partners at DraftKings Sportsbook:
Cleveland at Green Bay
Spread: Green Bay (-7.5)
This is the season for Cleveland. Simple as that. Green Bay meanwhile is fighting for a No. 1 seed.
But despite losing Monday night to Las Vegas, I’m not going to give up on Cleveland. Baker Mayfield and Myles Garrett will be back in the lineup. Denzel Ward and Greedy Williams in the secondary will be playing. All-Pro left tackle David Bakhtiari is still out for Green Bay. His replacement is Yosh Nijman, the 60th-ranked tackle in PFF grade. He will be going against Myles Garrett who ranks first in the NFL in pass rush win rate.
Put simply, this is a scenario where Green Bay may be caught sleeping. Baltimore was able to move the ball consistently with Tyler Huntley under center. Green Bay’s defensive line ranks 29th in defensive line yards while Cleveland ranks 4th in the NFL on the other side.
Expect Cleveland to get push and have overall success running the football here.
I love Cleveland getting over a touchdown and feel like they are a live dog in this one.
The pick: Cleveland +7.5
Indianapolis at Arizona
Spread: Arizona (-2)
I’ll admit we didn’t get the best number in this one. But I like Arizona here coming off a road loss against Detroit. Indianapolis looked impressive in a home win against New England. Which causes a reversal overreaction on both sides. An overreaction to Arizona’s loss and Indy’s win.
Indy is sort of a the new darlings of the NFL. But the quarterback difference between the teams is astronomical. Carson Wentz ranks 26th in the NFL in PFF grades and only Zach Wilson has more turnover worthy throws than Wentz over the past four weeks. Jonathan Taylor has been a monster, and the Arizona defense is susceptible to the run at times, but overall still rank eighth in run defense DVOA.
On defense, Indianapolis matched up perfectly against a New England team that wants to run the ball down your throat. Indianapolis is the best team against the run. The way you attack Indy’s defense is with speed going sideline to sideline and vertical in the passing game. Arizona is one of the best teams at doing that. Indianapolis has struggled when teams run plays out of 10 personnel. Arizona lines up in that formation more than anyone in football. Admittedly, Arizona’s passing game has not been as dynamic without Hopkins. But expect guys like Rondale Moore and Christian Kirk to step up in this spot. Indy corner Kenny Moore runs a 4:51 40 yard dash, below average speed for NFL corner, and while Rhodes was 4.4 guy in his prime, he is getting up there in age.
I expect Arizona to attack vertically down the field and be able to achieve chunk plays. Give me Arizona in this one.
The pick: Arizona (-2)
Follow Austin on Twitter @AMontgomeryLive
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