We move onto the second weekend of the NFL playoffs. We started off hot with a 4-1 week, and have a preview for the final two Saturday games of the entire football season.
First up, we have No. 1 seed Baltimore hosting Houston. CJ Stroud is looking to pass Lamar Jackson in career playoff wins in his second career starts. On the other side, Green Bay is looking to shock the NFL world once again. San Francisco and Brock Purdy have other plans. The coaching matchup between Matt LaFleur should be an interesting one.
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Let’s get down to it.
Houston at Baltimore
Spread: Baltimore (-9.5)
Total: 45.5
CJ Stroud looked like Tom Brady in his first career NFL postseason start. Stroud threw for 274 and 3 touchdowns becoming the first rookie quarterback to beat No-1 ranked defense in the postseason.
After an MVP level season, Lamar Jackson is looking to cure his postseason woes.
Who has the edge here?
Stroud looked awesome against the Cleveland defense. It’s going to be hard for him to repeat that. Remember, Baltimore defensive coordinator Mike McDonald schemed against Stroud while he was the defensive coordinator at Michigan. John probably talked to his brother Jim throughout the week too.
Beyond that, Houston has struggled playing outdoors at times this year. The weather in Baltimore will be 28 degrees with 16 mph winds throughout the day. The last two games Houston played in cold weather- they scored just 19 points against a bad Tennessee defense and got destroyed 30-6 against the Jets.
On the other side of the ball, Houston’s defense looked good against Cleveland. The Houston defense is stout against the run allowing just 3.5 yards per carry. The secondary still has a lot of holes. They are allowing 7.0 yards per pass attempt. This is a game Lamar Jackson is going to go off.
This Baltimore team is motivated to get back to the AFC Championship game. They are well rested and will come out with a sense of urgency. I like backing Baltimore in the first half here.
The pick: Baltimore -5.5 first half
Green Bay at San Francisco
Spread: San Francisco -9.5
Total: 50.5
This game has a similar feel to the opener. Green Bay shocked the NFL, obliterating Dallas in convincing fashion. Jordan Love showed he can be the guy.
Now Love gets a major test against San Francisco’s defense. San Francisco defense ranks 7th in EPA, 3rd in scoring, and 7th in total defense. Green Bay’s offensive line has really carried them. They are the best offensive line in PFF’s rankings since Week 15. They have helped running back Aaron Jones rush for a league best 456 yards in his last four games. It’s one of the main reasons Green Bay has been hot, winning seven of their last nine including a four-game winning streak going into this contest. While San Francisco presents challenges on defense, I expect Green Bay to move the ball frequently on the road here.
San Francisco’s weapons are healthy and rested. The NFC’s No. 1 seed has the best offense in football according to DVOA and EPA. The Green Bay defense ranks 28th in total defense and owns the league's worst success rate against passes this year (41.7%). This is really Brock Purdy’s coming out party in the postseason. I expect George Kittle, Deebo Samuel, and Brandon Ayuik to get a lot of action.
I’m going to take Green Bay over here. Green Bay’s offense is going to keep them competitive. The Green Bay defense is going to be aggressive like they were against Dallas. They are going to be hell bent on forcing turnovers, but they also may give up big plays in the back end. If Green Bay is semi competitive I think this game goes over. I like them to cover as well.
The pick: Green Bay +9.5 and over 50.5
Follow Austin Montgomery on Twitter - @AMontgomeryLiveÂ
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