
It’s late July, and with SEC Media Days wrapping today in Nashville, now feels like a great time to continue our look at college football’s best (and worst) over/under win totals heading into the 2023 season.
Last week we previewed the SEC East - as we gave a surprising “best bet” in a division that has been owned by Georgia the last few years.
Today, we look at the SEC West - where it feels like the tide is turning, literally. Everyone seems to be in on LSU this year, much more so than Alabama - but are they right?
Let’s take a look.
As always, the over/unders are presented by our partners at Betfred Sportsbook, and also make sure to download the “College Football Betting Show” where we’re continuing our preseason look at all the major over/under win totals heading into the season.
Before we get to over/unders, here is a look at odds to win the SEC West, presented by Betfred:
Odds to win the SEC West (via Betfred Sportsbook):
Alabama (-105)
LSU (+200)
Texas A&M (+500)
Ole Miss (+2000)
Arkansas (+2500)
Auburn (+2500)
Favorite Over/Under Win Total Bet: Texas A&M OVER 7.5 wins
I already know what you’re thinking: “Oh boy, here comes the Texas A&M hype again.” And if you’re tired of the hype, tired of being forced to believe only to be disappointed, I get it.
I do. I think even most Aggie fans are in “prove it” mode this year.
At the same time, let me drop a few nuggets on you.
One, as “bad” as the Jimbo Fisher era has been deemed so far, just know that prior to last year he won at least eight games every season. I understand that when you’re paid $9 million a year, you’re expected to win more than eight games - but this is an over/under win total article. We’re not betting the Aggies to win the title. We’re betting them to win eight or more games. History under Jimbo Fisher says that they will.
Beyond that, as bad as last year was, A&M really wasn’t all that far off from being much better in the win/loss column. Of their seven losses, five came by one touchdown or less. That included losing on the final play of the game at Alabama, and one where they literally outscored South Carolina after the first play of the game. That’s right, South Carolina returned the opening kick for a touchdown, and A&M outscored them from there.
Oh, and it’s also worth noting that 5-7 finish, came in a year with crippling injuries. The Aggies were down to their third string QB by the end of the year, with their best wide receiver (Ainis Smith) missing most of the season with injury and several offensive linemen in and out as well.
Understand, these aren’t excuses, they’re just facts.
That’s also why I’m higher on this team than most.
The Aggies should get much more consistent play from quarterback Connor Weigman, and he has three elite targets to throw to in Smith, Evan Stewart and Moose Muhammad. A young defense lost some depth through the transfer portal, but returns most of its key pieces, including McKinnley Jackson and Fadil Diggs, and that’s to go along with all the five-stars the Aggies signed a few years ago (Walter Nolen, Shemar Stewart, LT Overton etc.)
Add in a relatively manageable schedule that has A&M playing five of its first six in the state of Texas (four at home) and this team to me reeks of one that is undervalued coming into the year.
No one is saying this team is winning a national title.
But can they go 8-4 or 9-3? Absolutely.
Second Favorite Over/Under Win Total Bet: Ole Miss UNDER 7.5 wins
Listen, I love Lane Kiffin and think he’s great for college football and the SEC. He’s fun, his offense is fun and he isn’t afraid to poke a few people in the ribs.
At the same time, three things scare me about the Rebels this year.
One, as solid as last year’s 8-5 record looks on paper, it’s deceiving. They started out 7-0 against a paper-thin schedule, only to finish 1-5 down the stretch. Those victories came against, respectfully, Troy, Central Arkansas, Georgia Tech, Tulsa, Kentucky (by three), at Vandy, Auburn and Texas A&M. That’s eight wins including one over an FCS school, three who eventually fired their head coach (Auburn, Georgia Tech and Tulsa) and the most disappointing team in college football (A&M). The Kentucky win came by three after Will Levis fumbled in the red zone in a game the Wildcats easily could’ve won.
My second concern: No one is a better quarterback developer than Lane Kiffin. But at the same time, when you bring in, not one, but two transfer quarterbacks, it means you have no faith in the guys already in your building. Maybe the competition is exactly what Jaxson Dart needs. But yeah, I’m worried.
Finally, the schedule, umm yeah, it’s brutal.
In September alone, they play at Tulane (a team that won 12 games last year and beat USC in the Cotton Bowl), at Alabama and LSU at home. It isn’t impossible to see the Rebels starting 1-3, even though it’s probably unlikely. The back-half of the schedule does get easier, but also features a cross-divisional game at Georgia as well.
Again, could I see the scenario where this team goes 8-4 or better? Absolutely. But an opening stretch with games against Bama and LSU (while potentially breaking in a new QB, and a closing stretch which includes a trip between the hedges definitely has me worried.
The super power I like more than most: Alabama Over/Under 10.5 wins
So I’ll be honest, in all my years covering college football (which essentially overlap Nick Saban’s time at Bama) this feels like the most down people have been on the Tide. And somewhat understandably so, after a “disappointing” 11-2 season, which ended without a playoff appearance, despite the fact that some believed last year was Saban’s most talented team ever.
Now this year, they’re coming in with even more questions - specifically at the quarterback position. For the first time since the pre-Jalen Hurts era, the Tide have real question marks at quarterback. Neither Ty Simpson nor Jalen Milroe separated themselves in the spring, allowing Notre Dame transfer Tyler Buchner to arrive as a reinforcement in May. Buchner wasn’t even going to win the starting job in South Bend, and now he may in T-Town. Not good.
Still, while everyone else is selling their Bama stock, I’m going to go ahead and hold onto mine.
First off, as Nick Saban likes to say: For all the “disappointment” of last year’s 11-2 campaign, the Tide lost both of those contests on the final play of the game. And I keep thinking, if Jayden Daniels pass is batted down at the line of scrimmage at LSU, are we really talking about LSU as the potential SEC West favorite this year?
I’m not so sure.
Basically, Bama wasn’t that far away from winning the two games it lost last year, and this year all those tough road games from a season ago - Texas, Tennessee, LSU - are at home. Beyond that, this is still the most talented roster in college football, according to 247 Sports’ “Blue Chip Index.”
In the end, I’m going to trust Saban, trust the talent and trust the schedule.
Lean: Alabama OVER 10.5 wins
The super power I’m down on more than most: LSU Over/Under 9.5 wins
So before I go too far, let me make one thing clear. When I say I’m “down on a little more than most,” that doesn’t mean I hate LSU. I’ve been a Brian Kelly defender for years (dating back to his days at Cincinnati) and believe that he will eventually build a national champion at LSU.
And frankly, if this team does in fact win the West and head to the playoff, it wouldn’t shock me.
Still, I thought former Georgia quarterback Aaron Murray said it best last week when he said “LSU Has the best starting 22 in the SEC,” with frontline stars returning at basically every position. You know the names: Jayden Daniels, Malik Nabers, Harold Perkins, on and on.
The problem is, what’s behind them. And I thought Kelly actually had an interesting quote at SEC Media Days, basically acknowledging that the depth isn’t where it needs to be.
His quote: "I know based upon how we've recruited and how we continue to recruit. We will have a roster to compete against Georgia. Is that now? No, but if we continue to recruit like we have we will."
His point: As much as this roster has improved in his short time at LSU, it is still a program that had 39 scholarship players when he took over. And while they’re building championship-level depth, I’m not sure they’re there yet.
Beyond that, the schedule is brutal.
They open with a killer game versus Florida State, and overall, four of their first six games are away from Baton Rouge. They also have a return game in Tuscaloosa, which we know will be rocking.
Admittedly, the over/under of 9.5 does surprise me, as it feels like this should be at 10.5 instead.
I’m going to stay away, but would lean “over” of 10-2, with a couple losses and Bama winning the SEC West.
Lean: LSU OVER 9.5 wins
The team I like…. Buuuuuut: Mississippi State Over/Under 6.5 wins
It goes without saying that any conversation on Mississippi State football is a sad one, and has to start with the passing of Mike Leach. It still feels weird thinking that he isn’t around and won’t be on the sidelines in Starkville this season.
I don’t think you need me to tell you he’ll be missed.
But from a simply on-the-field perspective, the Bulldogs are maybe the most fascinating team in the division, and I could talk myself into them either way.
On a positive, they return a crap load of production, including Will Rogers at quarterback, their top running back (Jo’Quavious Marks), their top wide receiver (Rufus Harvey) and four starting offensive linemen. Their defense was quietly elite last year, holding eight opponents under 27 points. Of the four teams to surpass the 27 point mark, three were Georgia, Alabama and LSU.
On the negative side though, you’re betting on a first year head coach in the toughest division in college football. It also feels weird to me that Mississippi State plans to go away from the Air Raid, after it was one of the most prolific offenses in the sport, with players recruited to run it.
On the positive side, the schedule is actually pretty manageable, with four of first five at home, and the final three games in Starkville as well. Their cross division games are at South Carolina and Kentucky, a team which has lost in its last four road games at Mississippi State. For any SEC West team, that’s about as good of a draw as you could ask for.
On a negative note, again, there’s just no Leach and it’s hard to imagine this program not missing a beat without him.
I think this team can hit the seven-win mark, but it’s hard to bet on it.
Lean: Mississippi State UNDER 6.5 wins
The team I like…. Buuuuuut Part II: Auburn Over/Under 6.5 wins
To me, Auburn is almost the exact opposite of Mississippi State: Over the last six months, they got a significant coaching upgrade. And they also got a major talent infusion via the portal.
Speaking of which, before we got further, let’s just fully appreciate what Hugh Freeze has done in his short time on the Plains. He has:
Taken a 2023 recruiting class that was ranked in the 60’s when he took over and finished in the Top 20 nationally
Cleaned up in the portal, fortifying and fixing probably Auburn’s three biggest positional needs (quarterback, offensive line and wide receiver)
His 2024 class is headlined by a four-star, Top 100 quarterback in Walker White
So there are a lot of positives for Auburn heading into the year, but I just can’t definitively get behind an “over” bet here in the win totals.
The reason being? One, I’m still not sure if I trust Payton Thorne, the transfer from Michigan State at quarterback. And two, the schedule, while more manageable than most years, is still brutal. It includes a four-game stretch in late September and October that includes the following gauntlet: At Texas A&M, Georgia, at LSU, Ole Miss.
Like I mean, come on!!!!!!
I like Freeze, and with a soft out of conference schedule I do think 7-5 is in play. It’s my lean. But I won’t be betting it
Lean: Auburn OVER 6.5 wins
Major stayaway: Arkansas Over/Under 6.5 wins
Arkansas is basically a carbon copy of Auburn above: I like the coach. I like the talent. But the schedule mortifies me.
In terms of the talent, KJ Jefferson is, once again, the most underrated QB in the sport and Rocket Sanders is back after rushing for 1,300 yards. The receiving room is inexperienced but has crazy upside, considering that just about every dude in there is like 6’3 or above. Transfers Isaac TeSlaa and Andrew Armstrong both stand 6’4+ and how about this, Tyrone Broden, is a 6’7 transfer from Bowling Green.
HELLO.
The defense also cleaned up in the portal as well.
Still, while there is a lot to like, this is a program that did lose a bunch of talent to the portal, is replacing both coordinators and has a brutal schedule that includes Alabama, LSU, Ole Miss and Florida all on the road this year.
That just flat out sounds made up.
I really can’t even come up with a lean on this one, so go ahead and bet it at your own risk.
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