We are back at it betting the NFL once again. We went 3-1 on straight up selections last week and unfortunately the Dolphins could not come through on the teaser.
But we are back for another week of NFL Sunday football, and we got a pretty gnarly slate of games.
We open it up with an AFC mega showdown across the pond in London between the Jaguars and Bills. We have a physical matchup between the Texans and Falcons. We preview a majority of the afternoon slate starting with the Rams vs Eagles, Jets and Broncos-finish with SNF featuring the Cowboys and 49ers.
Without further ado, here are the picks.
Jacksonville vs. Buffalo (London)
Spread: Buffalo (-5.5)
Total: 48
The Jaguars are playing in London for the second consecutive week. The folks across the pond are in for quite the treat, as they will get to see some of the NFL’s best.
Starting with Buffalo, the Bills are slowly making the case for the league’s best team. The Bills rank top 3 in total EPA on both offense and defense. They have beaten their last three opponents by four touchdowns or more. While the Bills have looked like a bullet train with means of stopping them, I think the Jaguars can put up a fight. The Jaguars rank a respectable 11th in defensive EPA. Their corners on the outside Darious Williams and George Campbell both have top 25 coverage grades per PFF. Williams has been the best cover corner in all of football.
On the other side it's worth noting quarterback Trevor Lawerence has gotten off to a slow start. I think there is positive regression to be made there. Jacksonville has a significant advantage in already accumulating to the time difference in London. They have been there for over two weeks and the Bills had to travel there. That’s embedded into the line. Doug Pederson is a great coach as an underdog.
Give me Jacksonville with the points
The Pick: Jacksonville (+5.5)
Houston at Atlanta
Spread: Atlanta (-1.5)
Total: 41.5
We have two upstart teams battling it out in Atlanta. CJ Stroud has been the talk of the rookie QB class. The Texans have won two straight and are coming off a 30-6 beatdown of the Pittsburgh Steelers as 3-point underdogs last Sunday. On the other side, Desmond Ridder has struggled in his second year as a pro, ranking 28th in PFF’s grade. The Texans have all the momentum after the Falcons put up a lethargic performance against the Jaguars in London.
Still, I like the Falcons in this matchup here. The Falcons should be able to run the ball at will against the Texans defense. Houston ranks 32nd in run defense EPA and are allowing teams to average 4.4 yards per carry.
Beyond that, the Falcons secondary has been the backbone of their defense, a good sign against the talent of Stroud. Atlanta ranks fifth in total passing defense allowing 173 yards per game and are giving up 5.6 yards per pass attempt. I think Atlanta takes care of business at home here. The market has shifted against them. I think it’s time to fade the Texans while they are the peak of the market. Give me the Falcons at home.
Philadelphia at Los Angeles Rams
Spread: Philadelphia (-4)
Total: 50
Outside of their performance against the Bucs on Monday Night Football, we have not seen a dominant Eagles performance. Philly still ranks sixth in offensive efficiency, but the defense has regressed a bit. The Eagles defense ranks 5th in overall EPA. But their numbers against the pass and overall sack percentage have dropped. They rank 26th against the pass and they are not pressuring quarterbacks at the same rate as they did in the past. The Eagles are a pass funneling team, but they negate that with the pressure they typically provide.
Meanwhile, the Rams offense has performed above expectations. Now they get star WR Cooper Kupp back in the lineup. I think the Rams are going to be able to move the ball and their defense has played above expectation too. I think the Rams do just enough to keep things close on Sunday.
The pick: Atlanta (-1.5)
New York Jets at Denver
Spread: Denver (-2.5)
Total: 43.5
I took Denver in this same matchup last year and it was a mistake. The Broncos are far from saving. I know they just came back on the road against the Bears last week, but Broncos defense is a disaster. They rank 32nd in EPA by a large margin. They get an easier matchup playing against the 32nd ranked offense.
Out of these lazy sacks of potato units, someone has to come on top. The Jets looked competent against Kansas City last weekend. Zach Wilson hasn’t turned the ball over in the last two games. Running back Breece Hall should get his first full workload of the season. Remember what Sean Payton said about Nathaniel Hackett in the preseason? Hackett and the Jets players remember that. I expect a full Hackett revenge game coming.
Give me the Jets to beat the hell out of the Broncos in Mile High.
The pick: Jets +2.5
Dallas at San Francisco
Spread: San Francisco (-3.5)
Total: 45
We have the Game of the Week Sunday Night. A rematch of last year’s NFC Divisional Playoff game. Both the 49ers and Cowboys look like bona-fide contenders once again.
Offensively, the 49ers are among the league’s best with Kyle Shanahan running the show. San Francisco ranks 2nd in EPA per play. Star running back Christian McCaffrey has already run for 459 yards and six touchdowns already. He has a great matchup against a Cowboys defense that is susceptible against the run. This game is going to come down to the quarterbacks. Brock Purdy’s only game where he didn’t have a positive EPA per drop back was against this Cowboys defense in the NFC divisional playoff game. The Cowboys have been bringing pressure at an extreme rate. The Cowboys lead the league in pressure rate at 25.6%. This will be a huge step up in class for San Francisco. Three out of their four opponents rank outside the top 20 in pressure rate. Making Brock Purdy feel uncomfortable should be a huge part of the game plan.
The Cowboys will also have a tough task scoring against San Francisco defense on the road. San Fran ranks in the top 10 in pressure rate and seventh overall in defensive EPA per play. The Cowboys road to success is running the football between the tackles. Tony Pollard has tons of explosiveness. The 49ers are giving up 1.7 yards before first contact on inside zone runs. The Cowboys rank 6th in EPA per rush attempt. That efficiency just dips when they get inside the red zone where their offense ranks dead last in efficiency. Some of it is bad luck, bad play design, and personnel decisions. If the Cowboys figure that out that could be deadly. Dak isn’t turning the ball over. Outside of red zone woes, the offense has been incredibly efficient.
I think this game comes down to one possession and I see a lot of value in taking the points. Both teams will find success in running the football and it will come down to which quarterback can make big plays under pressure. I’ll take the Cowboys to enact revenge on San Francisco.
The pick: Cowboys +3.5
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