Betting the NFL draft is one of my favorite sporting events every year. I’m not an Adam Schefter with sources in NFL War rooms. I have listened to what experts are saying in the media. Trying to read in between the lines and predict what teams are going to do is exciting.
The hardest part about betting the draft is taking your opinions on players out of it. We are predicting what other teams are doing. Let’s look into what betting value is still left when predicting the draft board in Kansas City, with all odds provided by Betfred Sportsbook.
Will Anderson Second Overall Pick (+300)
I love the value of Anderson here. Anderson totaled 34.5 sacks and 58.5 tackles for loss and was considered the best defensive player in college football the last two seasons. The two-time consensus All-American ran a 4.60 at the 2023 NFL Combine. He has drawn comparisons to DeMarcus Ware. Texans coach DeMeco Ryans is a defensive savant. He knows how important a dominant edge is.
Yes, the Texans need a quarterback. But Houston is going into a long rebuild. Ryans signed a six-year contract upon taking this job; he is not expected to build this thing in year one. He can get the defensive foundation set then draft Caleb Williams or Drake Maye next year.
OVER 4.5 QBs in the first round (-190)
Four QBs are locked into going in the first round and Tennessee's Hendon Hooker has a good chance to be the fifth. Minnesota and Seattle are drafting late in the first round. Minnesota needs a succession plan for Kirk Cousins eventually and Geno Smith isn't the long-term answer in Seattle either.
Hooker was a front runner to win the Heisman trophy before he tore his ACL late in the season. If it wasn’t for that injury he would be in the middle of that top four group.
One other variable: If the Texans take a defensive player with the number two pick- they can trade back late to get Hooker in the back half of the first. I wouldn’t be surprised if Tampa Bay or Balitmore make a move too.
OVER 3.5 wide receivers take first round (-105)
If you want to sweat the back end of the first round, this is the bet to sweat. You probably won’t see a receiver taken in the top 15. Jaxson Smith-Njibga, Jordan Addison, and Zay Flowers are first round locks. Jaylin Hyatt and Quienten Johnson are also getting first round love. There are about six or seven teams in the back end of the first round where wide receiver is a need. The
league is moving towards the model of relying on young skill position players. Johnson and Hyatt are big impact players. One of the teams in the back end will reach to get them.
First Receiver Taken: Jordan Addison (+1000)
This is my favorite long shot bet. Addison is the best receiver in the draft for my money. I’m just hoping an NFL GM sees it the same way. Addison was considered a top 10 talent heading into the draft process. A disappointing display at the combine and his measurables have put him down on mock drafts.
What I am saying is however, the tape don’t lie. Addison had 100 receptions 1,593 yards and 17 touchdowns in his Bilenitkoff award winnings season at Pitt. His production slipped at USC where he 875 yards and eight touchdowns, but also dealt with injury.
I think he is the most explosive receiver in the class. There is some value here.
First Linebacker Taken: Jack Campbell (odds currently off the board)
Look up a picture of Jack Campbell and it just screams NFL linebacker. He has drawn comparisons to Luke Kuechly. The Patriots need a new middle linebacker at No. 14. The Patriots typically reach for guys that fits their culture and mold. Campbell has the intangibles that they will like.
He was not only the Butkus Award winner as the nation's top linebacker; he also won the Campbell Trophy (also known as the academic Heisman). And he played his college ball for Belichick pal Kirk Ferentz. The Patriots need a captain on the defensive end. Campbell is going to fill that role.
First Defensive Back Taken: Christian Gonzalez (+130)
I’m not 100 percent sure he is going over Witherspoon, but Gonzales is a top 10 talent. He has great size, fluid hips, and is a day one starter on the outside. I can see him going to Seattle at 5 or the Raiders at 7. Atlanta needs help in the back end as well. If their top edge rushers are off the board they can go corner as well.
CJ Stroud at No. 3 overall (+450)
If we're assuming Will Anderson goes No. 2, we're fading Will Levis steam here. A month ago, Stroud and Young were neck and neck competing to be the number one pick. Now Levis passes him because of some test results? Even if the Levis rumblings are true, I can hang my head knowing the GM who drafts Levis over Stroud will be fired in three years or less. Stroud’s film is light years better than Levis. We will ride with Stroud here.
To get full odds on the entire NFL Draft visit Betfred Sportsbook
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